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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 187

Bad Instincts

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 187: Bad Instincts

The GOP Establishment Looks Screwed for 2024

May 8, 2022 at 9:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The conventional view of J.D. Vance’s victory in Ohio’s Senate primary this week was that it demonstrated the power of Donald Trump’s endorsement,” Politico reports.

“But the election results also delivered something else: an outline of the 2024 GOP primary’s establishment lane, the one expected to be occupied by the likes of Govs. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas or Larry Hogan of Maryland, former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey or someone else from the party’s traditionalist wing.”

“In a crowded contest in which a field of free-spending Republicans competed for the Trump vote, the performance of the one serious contender who distanced himself from the former president proved revealing.”

Mastriano Holds Double-Digit Lead in GOP Primary

May 8, 2022 at 8:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A New Democratic poll in Pennsylvania, reviewed by City & State, shows Doug Mastriano (R) leads the Republican gubernatorial field with support from 28% of voters, a 14-point lead over the next-closest candidate, former U.S. attorney Bill McSwain (R).

McSwain was second with support from 14% of voters, while former Rep. Lou Barletta (R) came in third with 12%. Dave White (R) was fourth with 11%, and two other candidates – former Rep. Melissa Hart (R) and Jake Corman (R) – received 6% and 3%, respectively.

Selena Zito: A Doug Mastriano win would cost the GOP the House and Senate in that state.

Midterms’ Biggest Abortion Battleground Is Pennsylvania

May 8, 2022 at 8:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Pennsylvania, one of a handful of states where abortion access hangs in the balance with midterm elections this year, is a test case of the political power of the issue in a post-Roe world, offering a look at whether it will motivate party bases or can be a wedge for suburban independents.”

“After a draft of a Supreme Court opinion that would end the constitutional guarantee of abortion rights was leaked last week, Republicans downplayed the issue, shifting attention instead to the leak itself and away from its substance. They also argued that voters’ attentions were fleeting, that abortion was hardly a silver bullet for Democratic apathy and that more pressing issues — inflation and President Biden’s unpopularity — had already cast the midterm die.”

“To Democrats, this time really is different.”

Kai Kahele Kicks Off Bid for Hawaii Governor

May 7, 2022 at 5:06 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Rep. Kai Kahele (D-HI) today ended months of speculation by announcing that he is running for governor in the Aug. 13 Democratic Primary,” the Honolulu Star Advertiser reports.

Immigration Clamp Down Causing Labor Shortage

May 7, 2022 at 5:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The U.S. is experiencing a labor shortage that’s partly fueled by a drop-off in immigration, which ground to a halt during the pandemic, the AP reports.

By some estimates, the U.S. now has 2 million fewer immigrants than it would have if the pace had stayed the same.

Brazil’s Lula Makes Presidential Candidacy Official

May 7, 2022 at 4:57 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva officially launched his bid to return to Brazil’s presidency on Saturday more than a decade after he left office,” Bloomberg reports.

“The widely expected announcement, marked by an official event in Sao Paulo, kicks off a new phase of the campaign, in which Lula and his running mate Geraldo Alckmin will start traveling across the nation trying to gather broad support to defeat President Jair Bolsonaro in the October vote.”

Madison Cawthorn Paid His Cousin $141,000

May 7, 2022 at 4:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A relative and close adviser to Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) has pocketed more than $141,000 from taxpayers and campaign donors since 2020,” WRAL reports.

“The documents also show a roughly eight-month period during which the 26-year-old North Carolina congressman paid Stephen Smith, his second cousin, simultaneously from Cawthorn’s congressional office and campaign. The payments were addressed to Smith at a Hendersonville address. The address matches that of Cawthorn’s, state voter registration records show.”

For members: Let Us Count the Scandals

GOP Candidate Wants States to Ban Contraceptives

May 7, 2022 at 4:35 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

After the U.S. Supreme Court overturns women’s constitutional right to abortion this summer, Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Blake Master (R) thinks judges should also take aim at the right to buy and use contraception, the Arizona Mirror reports.

Inside the Movement to Overturn Roe v. Wade

May 7, 2022 at 4:26 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “For the activists who have fought against enormous odds to elevate the issues of abortion and judicial selection, the sudden turnabout is nearly as shocking as Trump’s election was for McConnell. Interviews with more than two dozen movement leaders, Republican officials and operatives describe a half-century journey that only began to settle over the last decade, as the politics of abortion finally polarized itself as a partisan issue and emerged as a top-tier Republican priority.”

“Abortion rights advocates have also been stunned by the transformation, accusing Republicans of hijacking the courts for partisan and unpopular ends.”

New York Times: Are more precedents next?

CIA Director Says China ‘Unsettled’ by Ukraine War

May 7, 2022 at 4:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The director of the CIA said that Chinese president Xi Jinping has been ‘unsettled’ by the war in Ukraine, which had demonstrated that the friendship between Beijing and Moscow had “limits” at a time when western allies were moving closer together,” the Financial Times reports.

McConnell Says National Abortion Ban Possible

May 7, 2022 at 3:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell told USA Today that a national abortion ban is possible if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade.

Said McConnell: “With regard to the abortion issue, I think it’s pretty clear where Senate Republicans stand.”

He added: “And if and when the court makes a final decision, I expect everybody will be more definitive. But I don’t think it’s much secret where Senate Republicans stand on that issue.”

Sinn Fein Pledges ‘New Era’ for Northern Ireland

May 7, 2022 at 3:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein, which seeks unification with Ireland, hailed a ‘new era’ Saturday for Northern Ireland as it captured the largest number of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly for the first time in a historic win,” the AP reports.

“The victory means Sinn Fein is entitled to the post of first minister in Belfast for the first time since Northern Ireland was founded as a Protestant-majority state in 1921.”

Clarence Thomas Worried Court May Be ‘Bullied’

May 7, 2022 at 3:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Justice Clarence Thomas told a group of judges and lawyers at the 11th Circuit Judicial Conference in Atlanta that “the events of earlier this week” show that if people cannot “live with outcomes we don’t agree with,” then the integrity of the judicial branch of government is undermined, CNN reports.

Russian Generals Turn on Each Other

May 7, 2022 at 2:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Russian generals are “turning in on themselves” because the war in Ukraine is not going to plan, the Times of London reports.

The British defense chief said military leaders were blaming each other for the “disaster” and feared being purged if the “quagmire” turns into a panicked retreat.

Democrats Aim to Channel Anger Over Roe Toward GOP

May 7, 2022 at 11:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “In the aftermath of the leaked draft of a Supreme Court opinion that would overturn Roe, Democrats are working hard to underline for voters which party is dismantling abortion protections and which one is defending them, hoping Republicans pay a price at the polls.”

“But the Democrats’ message also in a sense reflects how powerless they have been in Washington, even when they control the levers of power. They have failed to codify Roe, failed to prevent a conservative judiciary and failed to change the filibuster to enact their agenda.”

Loose Lips About Sinking Ships

May 7, 2022 at 11:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “The war in Ukraine has seen the U.S. share unprecedented levels of intelligence with Kyiv. And Western governments have stepped up preemptive public disclosures of intelligence to undermine Russian messaging.”

“But this week, the White House has started to worry that the intel is getting too public.”

Tom Friedman reports that Biden said “in the strongest and most colorful language that this kind of loose talk is reckless and has got to stop immediately — before we end up in an unintended war with Russia.”

“The staggering takeaway from these leaks is that they suggest we are no longer in an indirect war with Russia but rather edging toward a direct war — and no one has prepared the American people or Congress for that.”

U.S. Sends More Aid to Ukraine

May 7, 2022 at 11:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The U.S. announced a new weapons package for Ukraine on Friday, encompassing “artillery munitions, radar and other equipment,” Reuters reports.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports the Pentagon also announced it’s purchasing “aerial drones, laser-guided rockets, binoculars” and more from American companies to send to Ukraine.

Idaho GOP Riven by Primary Civil War

May 7, 2022 at 8:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Idaho’s dominant Republican Party is at war with itself up and down the ballot ahead of its May 17 primaries,” Politico reports.

“It’s not just Gov. Brad Little, whose reelection campaign became national news when Donald Trump endorsed a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin. The state attorney general is staring down a challenge from a former rabble-rousing member of Congress. The senior of Idaho’s two GOP House members is facing a primary that has drawn millions in spending. And contentious open races for lieutenant governor and the secretary of state — Idaho’s chief election official — echo some of the national divisions within the party.”

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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