Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “As we assess the Senate map right now, we do currently see the Republicans as favorites to take the majority. This is because, of the most competitive seats — the ones we call Toss-ups — Republicans are defending just 1 (Pennsylvania) and Democrats are defending 3 (Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada). And while we’re holding at a Toss-up rating in all of these races, there are some indications that the Republicans are better-positioned in several if not all of them.”
White House Still Sees Strong Growth In 2022
“The White House sees more risks to U.S. economic activity in the months ahead thanks to rising prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but still expects healthy GDP growth in 2022,” CNBC reports.
French Election Features Two Very Unpopular Candidates
New York Times: “No French president has been the object of such intense dislike among significant segments of the population as Mr. Macron — the result, experts say, of his image as an elitist out of touch with the ordinary French people whose pensions and work protections he has threatened in his efforts to make the economy more investor-friendly.”
“Just how deep that loathing runs will be a critical factor — perhaps even the decisive one — in the election against his far-right rival, Marine Le Pen. Recent polls give Mr. Macron a lead of around 10 percentage points — wider than at some points in the campaign, but only a third of his winning margin five years ago.”
Meanwhile, Eurointelligence watched last night’s debate and concludes that Le Pen “did not succeed in extending much beyond her existing far-right constituency.”
Mass Shootings Escalate Across the U.S.
Washington Post: “The stream of shootings comes amid a grim backdrop of increased gun violence nationwide, and at a time when mayors, police chiefs and mediators working on the streets to curb the bloodshed were already reporting a disturbing shift. Grievances or minor slights that might have once led to fistfights, they said, were instead suddenly escalating to gunfire.”
“In some of the recent shootings that left numerous people dead or injured, officials said the gunfire appeared to be tied to disputes among people or groups gathered in public or crowded areas. But this violence underscored that shootings leaving several people injured or killed are up significantly compared with before the pandemic, and the ongoing toll has public officials and others fearful heading into the summer months.”
U.S. Home Prices Hit a Record of $375,300 in March
“U.S. home prices soared to a new record in March while mortgage rates continued to rise rapidly, slowing home sales in what has been the hottest housing market in more than 15 years,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Glenn Youngkin Wades Into National Politics
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) “is preparing to take a step into national politics by launching a pair of new political groups ahead of the midterm election,” Politico reports.
“Youngkin’s new operation will allow him to wade into gubernatorial races across the country on behalf of GOP candidates. Youngkin can also use the apparatus to target a pair of Democratic House members in Virginia whom Republicans are looking to unseat.”
The Battle of Reedy Creek
Rick Wilson: “Even for Floridians, Reedy Creek is obscure; a small, strange legal fiction created by the State of Florida for Walt Disney World in 1972. It was an utterly esoteric remnant in state law until Gov. Ron DeSantis set his sights on breaking Disney to his will…”
“This stunt is all about giving DeSantis more ammunition in his nonstop culture war as he prepares to primary Donald Trump in 2024, and the Florida Legislature has covered itself in infamy for playing his game. Just as Washington Republicans lived in terror of Trump’s horde, Florida House and Senate Republicans live in fear of DeSantis and his mob, including the ones who troll on the taxpayer’s dime.”
“As America’s hottest new dictator-curious Trump-manque, DeSantis signed an instantly notorious ‘Don’t Say Gay’ bill this spring as part of his nascent 2024 presidential campaign. Like almost every Republican moral panic and trolling operation (but I repeat myself), it was a divisive piece of legislative arson presented as a response to an imaginary threat.”
Vaccines Still Not Ready for Kids Under 5
“The Biden administration may now wait until as late as June to authorize a coronavirus vaccine for the nation’s youngest children,” Politico reports.
“The move marks yet another delay in the government’s effort to vaccinate children under the age of five, and comes even as the U.S. lifts broader public health measures meant to protect Americans from the still-raging pandemic.”
Germany Prepares for a Russian Gas Embargo
Financial Times: “Talk of a full-scale embargo on Russian energy is spreading panic in Germany, which until the war received 55 percent of its imported gas from Russia. The fear is that any sudden gas shut-off could paralyze large parts of the country’s industry…”
“Germany also faces the risk that Russia could itself retaliate against western sanctions by unilaterally stopping the flow of gas to Europe. Either way, Berlin is facing a scenario unthinkable even a few weeks ago — a gas supply shock that would force it to ration energy to industry and could shutter some of the country’s largest factories.”
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House Democrats Hold Record-Breaking Fundraiser
“Speaker Nancy Pelosi raised more than $4.4 million at the Westin St. Francis in San Francisco Tuesday night. The fundraiser was conducted through the Nancy Pelosi Victory Fund, which is a joint fundraising committee between Pelosi’s congressional account, Pelosi’s PAC to the Future and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee,” Punchbowl News reports.
“A Pelosi aide told us it was the single largest individual donor fundraiser in DCCC history.”
“Pelosi far surpasses any other lawmaker when it comes to fundraising. The California Democrat raised a record $45.7 million for Democrats in the first quarter of this year. She has brought in a mind-boggling $1.16 billion since joining leadership 20 years ago.”
GOP Leaders Privately Blasted Trump After January 6
“In the days after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol building, the two top Republicans in Congress, Rep. Kevin McCarthy and Sen. Mitch McConnell, told associates they believed President Trump was responsible for inciting the deadly riot and vowed to drive him from politics,” the New York Times reports.
McCarthy went so far as to say he would push Mr. Trump to resign immediately: “I’ve had it with this guy.”
Said McConnell to top advisers: “The Democrats are going to take care of the son of a bitch for us.”
“But within weeks both men backed off an all-out fight with Mr. Trump because they feared retribution from him and his political movement. Their drive to act faded fast as it became clear it would mean difficult votes that would put them at odds with most of their colleagues.”
Most Think Biden Hasn’t Been Tough Enough on Russia
A new AP-NORC poll finds 54% of Americans think President Biden has been “not tough enough” in his response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while 36% think his approach has been about right, while 8% say he’s been too tough.
Vulnerable Senate Democrats Flee Biden Drag
Politico: “Democrats’ path to saving their narrow Senate majority comes down to defending four states this fall. And in all of them, President Joe Biden is underwater in the polls.”
“Biden’s drag on swing-state incumbents is emerging as a pivotal factor in the midterm Senate elections, where the loss of just one Democratic-held seat in November could put Republicans in control.”
Mike Lee Breaks Silence on Texts to Mark Meadows
Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) “says the text messages he sent to then-White House chief of staff Mark Meadows after the 2020 election don’t signal advocacy for overturning the results in favor of Donald Trump,” the Deseret News reports.
Said Lee: “He knows that when I said things like ‘Tell me what we ought to be saying,’ what I was just trying to figure out was ‘What is your message?’ He knows me well enough to know that that doesn’t mean I will do your bidding, whatever it is.”
He added: “Conversations I had with him at the time on the phone and in person, he knew that. He knew I was not there to do his bidding.”
RNC Still Paying Trump’s Personal Attorneys
The Republican National Committee paid law firms representing former President Donald Trump’s personal interests another $350,000 in March, Forbes reports.
Audio Suggests Trump Did Not Walk Out of Interview
An audio recording obtained by NBC News “appears to show that former President Donald Trump’s highly publicized interview with Piers Morgan did not end with Trump storming off the set, as edited promotional video clips suggest.”
“Instead, according to the recording, which was provided by Trump’s spokesman, the two men thanked each other and laughed at the conclusion of the interview for Talk TV, a subsidiary of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp.”
Judge Won’t Toss Defamation Suit Against Trump Allies
“A federal judge has rejected bids by three top promoters of President Donald Trump’s election fraud claims to throw out defamation lawsuits they face over a slew of allegedly false statements they made about the election-technology firm Dominion,” Politico reports.
