Elizabeth Drew: “It’s well understood around Washington that the president has a less than stellar collection of White House advisors and a weak national security staff in particular. New presidents without a lot of governing experience can make rookie mistakes, but six years on Obama continues to make them. And not just on foreign policy. He talked his way into a terrible predicament over whether he’d issue an executive order bypassing congressional inaction on immigration; his postponement of his original plan to issue these orders, announced early this summer, resulted in a significant drop in Hispanic support of the Democrats, which had been crucial to earlier Democratic victories in Colorado. (A Democrat senator said to me, ‘This is what you get when you have a drive-through president.’)”
Ben Carson Seems Serious About Running in 2016
Daily Beast: “The possibility that Ben Carson might run for president in 2016 first began to seem likely three years out, in February 2013. The world-renowned neurosurgeon descended on the National Prayer Breakfast to deride the trajectory of the United States while promising that he would not be silenced by the ‘PC police.’ It was a provocative, unorthodox performance, and not just because a certain sitting president remained onstage just a few feet from the podium, rubbing his eyes and smiling uncomfortably as the bespectacled, goateed Carson sliced away, among other things attacking lawyers because they are taught in law school ‘to win, by hook or by crook.’ (Obama is a lawyer.) Just like that, a Republican star was born.”
“Dissing the president of the United States to his face isn’t the typical way to begin your own White House trajectory. But today, all signs suggest that a Carson candidacy is imminent, although he told me in May that he would not announce until ‘probably in early 2015.’ The details of his emerging campaign infrastructure are as atypical as the man himself.”
Think Obama Won’t Be On the Ballot in 2016?
Nathan Gonzales: “In 2006, Republicans lost 31 House seats and six Senate seats, as well as majorities in both chambers. GOP strategists understood voters were sending their party a message. But they also took some solace that unpopular President George W. Bush was in the twilight of his tenure and wouldn’t be on the ballot again. They were wrong.”
“In two years between the 2006 midterm elections and the 2008 presidential election, Bush’s job approval rating dipped even lower… Congressional Democrats and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama ran against Bush again in 2008 and Republicans lost another 21 House seats and eight more Senate seats. It didn’t matter President Bush wasn’t actually on the ballot and wouldn’t be in office the following year. Democratic candidates ran against him anyway. Bush’s low standing primed the country for more Democrats, even though they already controlled the House and Senate.”
“There is significant risk for Democrats that Obama and his policies will be on the ballot again in 2016.”
Conflicts of Interest Abound in the House of Lords
“For centuries, the upper chamber of the British Parliament was filled largely by the landed gentry. But in 1999, then-Prime Minister Tony Blair ’s government replaced most of the hereditary lords with business people, civic leaders and politicians appointed for life,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Mr. Blair said the shift would ‘end the feudal domination of one half of our legislature.’ Opponents said he was turning the House of Lords into a den of patronage… In the 15 years since, the House of Lords has struggled with the boundaries between public and private service. A code of conduct meant to separate the two has repeatedly been altered… Many lords now have ties to organizations that engage in lobbying, including one lord who agreed to be a lobbyist for an offshore-fund haven. Sixty-eight others give advice on government affairs to companies, trade groups or other organizations, or work for companies that specialize in government relations.”
Will Climate Change be Obama’s 2nd Term Legacy?
First Read: “President Obama’s second term in office has been lacking in big achievements. Background checks for gun purchases didn’t make it through the Senate. Immigration reform isn’t becoming law this Congress, though the president is expected to take executive action on this front. And just last week, Obama’s party took a major drubbing in the midterm elections. But there is one potential second-term achievement that’s taking more and more shape — on climate change.”
“Remember, Obama made combating climate change a big part of his second inaugural address… Of course, it came after he disappointed supporters in his first term (no cap-and-trade bill through the Senate). And it’s important to point out that Obama’s second-term actions on the climate — the EPA rules, the deal with China — are unilateral actions that can be undone by another president. But make no mistake: This is Obama’s pet issue of his second term.”
Wonk Wire: How to sell a (carbon) tax to Republicans
2016 Is All About Hillary
Morning Line: “In many ways, the 2016 election is all about Hillary Clinton. She leads in all the polls. Republicans have been taking aim at her since she stepped down as secretary of state. The day after the midterm elections, Republicans were saying that her policies were on the ballot, too. Some in the media want to create drama in a Democratic primary, because why not? So there will be lots of coverage of Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb and the mysterious candidate who could ultimately derail Clinton’s nomination (will Elizabeth Warren re-think it, etc.) Problem with that narrative is there’s no Barack Obama this year, and Warren has said definitively she won’t run this year. The only wildcard is if Clinton has a change of heart or has a prohibitive health issue. And then, what do Democrats do?”
“The Republican race, on the other hand, is setting up to be another long, drawn-out primary process. The GOP has a good problem — unlike Democrats, they have a deep bench. But they also have a continued presidential primary problem — the internecine conflict between the conservative and establishment wings. What’s happened predictably in the last two elections is the establishment candidate has won out, but gets pulled to the right (see John McCain on immigration, Mitt Romney on, well, almost everything). That is going to continue to play out.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I’ve got about 60 more days of being the governor of the state of Texas and then I’m going to do something different. You’ll see me again.”
— Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), quoted by the Myrtle Beach Sun News, speaking in South Carolina.
Duckworth Is Leaning Against Senate Bid
Greg Hinz is “hearing all kinds of talk in Democratic circles that the woman whom many have considered the strongest potential challenger” to Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL), Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) “now is leaning heavily against a contest.”
“Ms. Duckworth is about to be a mother. She’s expecting a daughter next month, and party insiders say that won’t leave much room for hopping around the state to campaign for the Senate — especially when she’d have to give up a safe House seat to do so.”
“That would leave an open field, and it could be pretty competitive. Among potential candidates on my list: U.S. Rep. Bill Foster, D-Naperville, who has a nicely nonpartisan style about him; state Sen. Kwame Raoul, a fast-rising Chicagoan who represents some of Barack Obama’s old state Senate district; and Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who passed on earlier chances to run for higher office but still pulled in 59 percent of the vote last week. And, Gov. Pat Quinn.”
Cruz Leads Obamacare Repeal But No One is Following
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) “is still ready to use any means necessary to repeal Obamacare,” Politico reports.
“But even his fellow conservatives aren’t all jumping on board – a sign that the Republican repeal or bust movement is struggling while Obamacare continues to enroll millions of people with health insurance.”
Wonk Wire: Obamacare premiums, on average, are actually falling in major cities
2016 Senate Map Not That Bad for Republicans
Politico: “The GOP has a bigger cushion than expected for its new majority, probably 54 seats. More veteran senators may stick around to preserve safe seats. And some vulnerable incumbents will have committee chairmanships that could pump up their profiles.”
“Even though conventional wisdom suggests this may be a short-lived Republican majority, interviews with nearly two dozen operatives in Washington and 2016 battleground states reveal a more nuanced picture of the next Senate landscape. The most vulnerable Democrats this year were up in very red states; the most endangered Republicans in 2016 will, with the exception of Illinois, be defending seats in purple terrain.”
Huckabee Begins to Build Political Team
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), “who turned his stunning victory in the 2008 Iowa caucuses into a thriving talk show career, is reconnecting with activists and enlisting staff to position himself in a growing field of potential Republican presidential candidates,” the Washington Post reports.
“Huckabee’s newly formed non-profit advocacy group, America Takes Action, has begun to serve as an employment perch for his political team, recently bringing on a number of experienced campaign operatives. Advisers are already scouting real estate in Little Rock, Ark., for a possible presidential campaign headquarters.”
Republicans Don’t Want Compromise with Obama
Pew Research: “A majority of Americans would like to see Barack Obama and Republican leaders work together over the coming year. But Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to favor a confrontational approach toward the political opposition, even if that results in less getting done.”
“Overall, 57% of the public says Republican leaders in Washington should try as best they can to work with Barack Obama to accomplish things, even if it means disappointing some groups of Republican supporters, while 40% say they should ‘stand up’ to Obama on issues that are important to Republican supporters, even if it means less gets done in Washington. And by about a two-to-one margin (62% to 30%) more say Obama should work with Republicans than say he should stand up to the GOP.”
Quote of the Day
“I do not believe what happened the other night is a wave. There was no wave of approval for the Republicans. I wish them congratulations, they won the election, but there was no wave of approval for anybody. There was an ebbing, an ebb tide, for us.”
— House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D), quoted by Politico.
Democratic Party Favorable Rating Falls to Record Low
Gallup: “After the midterm elections that saw the Democratic Party suffer significant losses in Congress, a record-low 36% of Americans say they have a favorable opinion of the party, down six percentage points from before the elections. The Republican Party’s favorable rating, at 42%, is essentially unchanged from 40%. This marks the first time since September 2011 that the Republican Party has had a higher favorability rating than the Democratic Party.”
Lawmakers Return for Lame Duck Session
“Fresh from an election that emphatically punctuated voter dissatisfaction with a gridlocked Washington, lawmakers return Wednesday for a lame-duck session that will provide the first crucial test of whether Democrats and Republicans can cooperate or if the next Congress will be another study in dysfunction,” the New York Times reports.
“Lawmakers acknowledge that clearing a backlog of stalled legislation and executive branch nominees without the partisan animus that has permeated the 113th Congress could signal a chance at progress when Republicans take over the Senate in January and solidify the party’s grip on Capitol Hill. But a postelection session that breaks down in finger-pointing and recriminations over immigration policy and Internet regulation will foreshadow the likelihood of limited compromise ahead.”
Clyburn Says GOP Will Try to Impeach Obama
Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) is predicting that Republicans will try to impeach President Obama so that they can “put an asterisk” next to the name of the first black president, Politico reports.
Said Clyburn: “There will be some reason found to introduce an impeachment resolution. These Republicans have decided that this president must have an asterisk by his name after he leaves office, irrespective of whether or not he gets convicted. It is their plan to introduce an impeachment resolution.”
Sullivan Wins Senate Seat in Alaska
Dan Sullivan (R) has defeated Sen. Mark Begich (D) in Alaska, according to the Associated Press.
“The Alaska race was too close to call on Election Night last week, with Sullivan up by about 8,100 votes, but it became evident Tuesday when the state began counting about 20,000 of absentee and questioned ballots that Begich could not overcome Sullivan.”
New Rubio Book Set for January Release
Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-FL) “new book is set for a January release, followed by a book tour that comes at a critical time for him as he weighs a presidential run,” the Tampa Bay Times reports.
“American Dreams: Restoring Economic Opportunity for Everyone is listed on Amazon with a Jan. 13 release date. It is Rubio’s second book; the first was a story of his upbringing as the son of Cuban immigrants and his political rise. The new book is more policy oriented.”
☑️ Life in the Middle: Marginalized Moderate Senators In the Era of Polarization is available on Amazon. It takes a deep dive into the power of moderates and why we see them behave so precariously.
