From First Read:
- Biden’s running mate pick: Not since LBJ has a VP pick truly helped win a presidential race, but bad picks have backfired (see: Palin, Sarah).
- The virtual conventions: Given the increased polarization in the country, the days of big post-convention bounces are probably over, and that’s probably especially true during a pandemic.
- Will the economic and coronavirus numbers get better, worse, or stay the same? These might be the most important statistics to watch over the next three months.
- The debates: Or will they even take place?
- Another October surprise: James Comey’s letter in the last two weeks of the 2016 election is proof that events at the end of a presidential race can move numbers.
- How the 2020 vote gets counted: This might be the most important storyline of all, especially amid a deadly pandemic.