A new Doug Sosnik memo and slide deck points out that while Democrats would normally be in a strong position to make major gains in the midterm elections, “it is unlikely that they will have anywhere near the level of success that the out-of-power party has had in previous midterm elections with such an unpopular incumbent president.”

Playbook explains: “In the current Congress, a whopping 419 members of the House are from the same party as the presidential candidate who won their district. The result: way fewer races are competitive these days, ‘which narrows the opportunity for the Democrats to fully benefit politically even if support for Trump and the Republicans implodes.’”

Politico: “While Democratic senators and representatives struggle for impact in Trump’s trifecta — bladder-busting 25-hour speeches aside — and party bigwigs tie themselves in knots over dismal funding and poll numbers, it’s a band of combative Democratic governors who’ve grabbed the opportunity to make waves. That opportunity has been afforded them by none other than the president of the United States, whose method of turning the page on the Jeffrey Epstein saga this summer has been a high-profile assault on their cities.”

“And here’s the bottom line: It’s working pretty well for Trump — but it’s working for these guys too.”

The Downballot: “Iowa Democrat Catelin Drey won a major upset on Tuesday night, flipping a deep-red seat in the state Senate and breaking the GOP’s supermajority in the chamber.”

“Drey defeated Republican Christopher Prosch by a wide 55-44 margin in a district Donald Trump carried by 11 points last year.”

“It’s the second conservative district that Iowa Republicans have lost in the legislature this year, and the results will further buoy Democratic hopes for similar victories in contests for governor and the U.S. Senate in 2026.”

“New York Mayor Eric Adams said he has no plans to drop out of November’s election after his struggling campaign was rocked last week by more corruption allegations,” Bloomberg reports.

Said Adams: “Yes, I’m staying in, no matter what.”

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