Set Your 2026 Expectations

A new Doug Sosnik memo and slide deck points out that while Democrats would normally be in a strong position to make major gains in the midterm elections, “it is unlikely that they will have anywhere near the level of success that the out-of-power party has had in previous midterm elections with such an unpopular incumbent president.”

Playbook explains: “In the current Congress, a whopping 419 members of the House are from the same party as the presidential candidate who won their district. The result: way fewer races are competitive these days, ‘which narrows the opportunity for the Democrats to fully benefit politically even if support for Trump and the Republicans implodes.’”