Out this summer: Yes We (Still) Can: Politics in the Age of Obama, Twitter, and Trump by Dan Pfeiffer.
Porter Was Told His Clearance Was ‘Delayed’ in September
Former White House aide Rob Porter told ex-wive Jennie Willoughby in September that he was informed that his security clearance check was “delayed” in part because of concerns that he was “violent,” CNN reports.
Cramer Will Run for Senate After All
Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) reversed course and told reporters that he is running for U.S. Senate against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), the Bismarck Tribune reports.
White House Threatens to Veto Bipartisan Bill
The White House “issued a veto threat against a bipartisan immigration plan in the Senate that was emerging as the best hope for a legislative deal, likely dooming congressional attempts to protect younger undocumented immigrants known as ‘dreamers’ from possible deportation,” the Washington Post reports.
Jonathan Swan: “This is a big deal. Veto threats are rare at this stage of the legislative process.”
Earlier for members: Trump Doesn’t Want an Immigration Deal
Stormy Daniels Kept a ‘Monica Lewinsky Dress’
“Stormy Daniels may have more than just her words from a 2011 interview to back up past claims of an affair with Donald Trump – she has kept a gold dress from the night of the alleged encounter,” The Blast reports.
“We’re told Daniels is planning on having the dress forensically tested to search for any DNA that proves she isn’t lying about her tryst with Trump, including samples of skin, hair or … anything.”
Saccone Holds Small Lead In Pennsylvania’s 18th
A new Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district finds Rick Saccone (R) with a small advantage over Conor Lamb (D).
Using a turnout model similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year, Saccone leads by 49% to 46%. A historical turnout model, based on lower turnout than the 2014 midterm, gives Saccone a larger 50% to 45% lead. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential election, gives Saccone a 48% to 44% advantage.
President Trump won the district in 2016 by 20 percentage points.
Also interesting: 48% say they support “what President Trump is doing,” while 47% opposed him.
Shooter Belonged to White Supremacist Group
“Nikolas Cruz, the alleged gunman who killed 17 people at a Florida high school on Wednesday, trained with a white-supremacist group,” its leader told the Daily Beast.
Said Jordan Jereb, captain of the Republic of Florida: “He probably used that training to do what he did yesterday. Nobody I know told him to do that, he just freaked out.”
Inaugural Committee Paid $26M to First Lady’s Friend
“President Trump’s inaugural committee paid nearly $26 million to an event planning firm started by an adviser to First Lady Melania Trump, while donating $5 million — less than expected — to charity,” the New York Times reports.
Senate Heads to Immigration Showdown
Bloomberg: “A series of procedural votes likely Thursday will focus on two proposals. The bipartisan plan would give 1.8 million young immigrants, known as dreamers, a path to citizenship and provide $25 billion for border security. The second, backed by Republican leaders, would include those provisions plus other priorities of President Donald Trump, including strict limits on family-based migration and an end to a diversity visa lottery. Democrats reject those proposals.”
“In a hardball tactic, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky decided a vote on the GOP plan would come last. That will make it harder for GOP lawmakers who might be willing to back the more modest bipartisan measure, which was conceived by a group of senators that included eight Republicans. They won’t be able to see if the Trump plan fails first and then move to the pared-down bipartisan measure as a fallback.”
Are Crowded Democratic Primaries a Blessing or Curse?
David Wasserman: “Republicans’ biggest structural advantages in the House – think geography, incumbency and money — have been weakening all cycle. Pennsylvania’s GOP map just got thrown out, at least 32 Republicans aren’t seeking reelection, and over three dozen GOP incumbents were out-raised by Democrats in the final quarter of 2017 — including GOP Rep. Steve Knight (CA-25), whom Hill out-raised. In the past, these kinds of trends have foreshadowed wave elections.”
“But as primary season approaches, the explosion of candidate and donor interest on the Democratic side has a caveat: in a lot of races, Democrats suddenly have more well-funded hopefuls than they know what to do with.”
“So, are these congested Democratic primaries a blessing or a curse? The answer: it depends on the situation, but overall, Republicans shouldn’t count on them to save their majority.”
A Chaotic Search for a New Chief of Staff
Vanity Fair: “In recent days, Trump has floated names like White House Budget Director Mick Mulvaney and longtime friend Tom Barrack, a real estate developer… The situation remains fluid. Last night, for instance, three Republicans told me that Trump had offered the job to Gary Cohn. But in a conversation with Sean Hannity yesterday, Trump said he had not chosen Cohn… Trump has also discussed House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy…. In the past, McCarthy has expressed interest in being chief… But people who have recently spoken to McCarthy say he’s lost interest.”
“Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner have aggressively pushed for Cohn, sources said. They’ve also been advocates for David Urban, the lobbyist and political strategist who helped steer Trump’s win in Pennsylvania… Meanwhile, Hannity is part of a faction pushing Wayne Berman, a senior adviser to private-equity giant Blackstone… People close to Steve Bannon have been advocating for House Freedom Caucus Chair Mark Meadows.”
Trump Doesn’t Want an Immigration Deal
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Everyone Elected In This House District Has Pleaded Guilty
Since Florida’s 114th state House district was formed in 2012, every candidate voters have sent to the Florida Capitol on their behalf has pleaded guilty to criminal charges, the Miami Herald reports.
“On Tuesday, some of the 34,000 Republican voters in the district, which includes Flagami, Coral Gables, West Miami and parts of Pinecrest and Cutler Bay, will head to the polls to begin the process of voting for the first time — hopefully — to elect someone who won’t disgrace them.”
Trump’s ‘Forgotten Man’ Still Supports Him
Molly Ball: “As long sees it, no one should feel more betrayed by the Trump presidency than the archetypical Trump supporter: the white working-class voter whom Trump dubbed the Forgotten Man. And yet, to his great frustration, many of his fellow blue collar workers don’t seem to grasp how Trump has abandoned them.”
“The immovable loyalty of Trump’s narrow but vocal base has broad ramifications, not just for the Democratic Party but also for the nation. Unbridgeable divides make governing nearly impossible: there can be no consensus in a politics of blind tribalism.”
JFK and Reagan Seen as Best of Modern Presidents
A new University of Virginia Center for Politics/Ipsos poll finds Americans rate John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan as the best of most recent presidents.
Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, the two most recent Democratic presidents, round out the top four, while the current president, Donald Trump, finds himself near the bottom of the ratings.
Nervous Republicans Seek New Senate Candidates
“Republicans worried about holding on to their Senate majority are trying to convince three lawmakers to reconsider their decisions and run for the upper chamber,” The Hill reports.
“Reps. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) and Ann Wagner (R-MO) are being encouraged to launch Senate bids after initially passing on those races, while Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) is hearing calls to put off his retirement and run for reelection.”
“The last-minute maneuvering suggests the GOP primary fields may not be settled just eight months before the November midterm elections and highlights an increasing nervousness among Republicans that their Senate majority — once seen as nearly invincible — may be at risk.”
McCarthy Allies Say He Doesn’t Want White House Job
House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) “insists he’s not in the running for White House chief of staff. And the California Republican’s allies say the only job he really wants — other than the post he currently has — is speaker of the House,” Politico reports.
“But as embattled White House chief of staff John Kelly fights to stay on in the midst of the Rob Porter scandal, McCarthy has been floated repeatedly as a possible replacement. It’s a replay of what happened when Kelly’s predecessor, Reince Priebus, stepped down in July.”
Obama’s Retrospective Approval Rate Is 63%
A new Gallup survey finds 63% of Americans in hindsight say they approve of the way Barack Obama handled his job.
“Gallup’s first measure of Obama’s retrospective job approval rating places him behind only John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan among the 10 most recent presidents. Richard Nixon is rated worst today for how he handled his job, with 28% approving.”