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Why Electability Is the Right Way to Pick a Nominee

July 31, 2019 at 9:33 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jason Steinhauer: “Technically, electability simply means an ability (or the perceived ability) of a candidate to win the general election — that is, to earn a majority of the electoral college votes.”

“But at its heart, ‘electability’ is a strategy employed by the party that prioritizes party victory over any one particular candidate or an ideological agenda. Certain candidates may appeal to particular factions of a party, but not all can deliver enough states to win the White House. An electability strategy assesses the realities of the electoral map, and attempts to put forth a candidate who can deliver the right mix of states and votes that will best assure victory for the party.”

“This strategy empowers the party structure, of course, and disadvantages those who may seek to upend it. But it has succeeded in putting forth successful candidates during contentious elections. In fact, Abraham Lincoln — arguably the most significant president in our nation’s history — won his party’s nomination and ultimately the White House on the back of his ‘electability.'”

Williamson Gets Backing of ‘Occult Task Force’

July 31, 2019 at 9:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Some supporters of Marianne Williamson have organized an “occult task force” to help her campaign, the Washington Post reports.

The person organizing the task force said that a group of 13 chaos magicians, witches and energy workers were doing synchronized “gestures” to help their candidate gain more visibility during last night’s Democratic debate.

Expect a Focus on Race at Tonight’s Debate

July 31, 2019 at 9:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “Biden’s task won’t be easy, however. He’ll be flanked on one side by Kamala Harris (who charged at him on bussing and segregationist senators in Miami), and one the other side by Cory Booker (who’s loaded for bear on Biden’s 1994 crime bill).”

“By the way, last night’s debate stage was all-white, while tonight’s is full of diversity – Harris, Booker, Castro and Yang.”


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China Slow Walks Trade Talks

July 31, 2019 at 9:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Plodding progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China this week is partly the result of a new tactic from Beijing, which increasingly thinks waiting may produce a more favorable agreement,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“U.S. and Chinese negotiators held four hours of talks Wednesday, after a dinner the night before, and then wrapped up their first face-to-face meeting since negotiations foundered more than two months ago. Neither side announced any breakthroughs; China described the talks as constructive and said the next round would be held in the U.S. in September.”

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman told CNBC that it was clear it was the United States that continued to “flip flop.”

How Biden Is Prepping for Tonight’s Debate

July 31, 2019 at 8:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Axios: “To try to make up for Biden’s shortcomings last time, some of his prep sessions (though not exclusively) have been with smaller groups of advisers, with aides asking him what he thinks instead of over-prepping and jamming his head.”

Republicans Should Worry About Latest Retirements

July 31, 2019 at 8:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Bernstein: “One interpretation is that Republicans don’t expect to return to a House majority in 2020. The current breakdown is 235 Democrats, 197 Republicans, one independent (the former Republican Justin Amash), and two vacancies last held by Republicans. So the party, if it holds the two open seats and wins back Amash’s, would only need to gain 18 others to restore its majority. A spate of retirements signals that they don’t really think that’s likely.”

“The thing about House elections is that expectations matter. A lot. The more a party thinks it’s going to be a good year, the more it will attract the resources needed to win, including strong candidates.”

“As for the timing? It’s possible that all the new retirements were long planned. It’s interesting, though, that they come after Robert Mueller’s testimony revived interest in President Trump’s scandals – and, perhaps more relevant, after Trump’s ‘send her back’ rally and his continuing series of bigoted tweets. It’s not crazy to speculate that one or more of these Republicans just didn’t want to campaign for reelection in that kind of atmosphere.”

The Five Realities of Impeachment

July 31, 2019 at 7:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

According to a Washington Post tally, 114 House Democrats now say they support at least opening an impeachment inquiry into whether President Trump committed “high crimes and misdemeanors.” That represents just over 48% of the 235-member House Democratic caucus.

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Biden Braces for Debate Pile-On

July 31, 2019 at 7:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Joe Biden spent much of his career carving out an image as a tough-on-crime Democrat. But few who watch the second presidential debate are likely to get that impression from him,” Politico reports.

“The rapid evolution of the politics of racial justice have made what used to be a signature strength into a potential liability, forcing him to scuttle his positions and rhetoric from decades ago — or risk getting trampled by rivals questioning his civil rights record. The biggest test comes Wednesday night, when he’ll be flanked on stage by two of his sharpest critics on race, Sens. Kamala Harris and Cory Booker.”

New Fraud Charges for North Carolina GOP Operative

July 31, 2019 at 7:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The man at the center of an election fraud investigation in a 2018 North Carolina congressional race faced new indictments Tuesday along with multiple other individuals,” CNN reports.

“Leslie McCrae Dowless, a political operative in Bladen County who was connected to questionable absentee ballot activity, was indicted by a Wake County grand jury on two counts of felony obstruction of justice, perjury, solicitation to commit perjury, conspiracy to obstruct justice and possession of absentee ballot.”

Zinke’s Use of Email Investigated

July 31, 2019 at 6:41 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “The Justice Department is investigating whether former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke used personal email accounts for official business, a matter that has become part of a larger criminal probe into the departed official.”

Fed Expected to Cut Rates

July 31, 2019 at 6:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “The Federal Reserve is expected to say Wednesday it will reduce its benchmark interest rate by one quarter percentage point. That would mark just the fifth time in the past 25 years that the central bank switched from raising to lowering rates.”

Trump’s Spy Chief Pick Overstated His Biography

July 31, 2019 at 6:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Aides to the congressman chosen by President Trump to lead the nation’s intelligence agencies were forced on Tuesday to clarify his claims that he had won terrorism convictions as a federal prosecutor, as his background came under new scrutiny.”

“Mr. Trump’s pick, Representative John Ratcliffe, Republican of Texas, had said on his House website and in campaign material that he had tried suspects accused of funneling money to the Hamas terrorist group. But instead, an aide said, Mr. Ratcliffe had investigated side issues related to an initial mistrial, and did not prosecute the case either in that proceeding or in a successful second trial.”

Sanders and Warren Team Up

July 31, 2019 at 6:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “On an evening that could have produced explosions in their own political rivalry, Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren instead formed something of an ideological tag team to defend their shared agenda, above all on health care. Though each is seen as the other’s chief obstacle in the Democratic race, Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren did not at any point clash directly.”

“Instead, they battled an array of comparatively obscure candidates who used the debate as an opportunity — and for some of them, likely a last chance — to express alarm about their party’s embrace of immense liberal policy goals, like the creation of a ‘Medicare for all’-style health care system, Mr. Sanders’s No. 1 issue, and a broad liberalization of the immigration system.”

Dan Balz: “Warren and Sanders more than stood their ground during two spirited hours of sharp and passionate exchanges.”

Biden Was Not Mentioned

July 31, 2019 at 6:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “Ten more candidates, including former vice president Joe Biden, are scheduled to appear on the stage Wednesday, on the second night of this round of debates hosted by CNN. Yet Biden, whose lead in the polls has been one of the most enduring aspects of the Democratic primary contest, was not mentioned by name Tuesday night. Instead, other moderates were used as stand-ins for some of the ideas he espouses.”

My Reaction to Tonight’s Democratic Debate

July 30, 2019 at 10:41 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

One of the worst things about Donald Trump being president is that so many think they can be president.

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Another GOP Lawmaker Announces Retirement

July 30, 2019 at 9:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Mike Conaway (R-TX) announced that he is retiring after 15 years in Congress, Politico reports.

This is the fifth GOP retirement in two weeks.

Second Democratic Debate – Night One

July 30, 2019 at 7:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ten Democratic presidential candidates will debate on CNN beginning at 8 p.m. ET.

The lineup: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Beto O’Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, Steve Bullock, Tim Ryan, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney and Marianne Williamson.

Dave Weigel: “Tonight’s 10-candidate Democratic debate in the Fox Theatre will be a major media event and a pivotal moment in the presidential primary. And it’s not expected to change much of anything.”

Please leave your reactions in the comments.

GOP Lawmaker Demands Info on UFO Sightings

July 30, 2019 at 7:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Mark Walter (R-NC), a top Republican on the House Homeland Security Committee, is seeking more details from the Navy on recent reports of so-called “unidentified aerial phenomenon,” including what resources it is applying to investigate the mysterious sightings and whether it has “found physical evidence or otherwise” to substantiate them, Politico reports.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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