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Five Things to Watch In the Next Democratic Debate

July 19, 2019 at 8:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A good overview from First Read:

  1. The battle on the left: In June, Sanders and Warren appeared on different nights, giving each the opportunity to stake out ground on the left. Competitors seemed particularly reluctant to criticize Warren, which allowed her to occupy that space virtually unscathed on the first night of the first debate. But with Sanders losing ground in recent polls — and Warren rising in both polls and fundraising — both may be eager to create some differentiation between their brands when they share a stage.
  2. Biden v. Harris, round two: By far, the most memorable exchange of the first debates was Harris’ damaging attack on Biden over bussing and his past comments about segregationists. Biden didn’t seem well-prepared at all for that onslaught in June, but he’ll have to show he’s ready to revisit racial issues when he shares the stage with her again.
  3. O’Rourke and Buttigieg face off: Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s monster second quarter fundraising haul proved what we’d already had plenty of anecdotal evidence to show — that the South Bend mayor had replaced O’Rourke as the fresh young (white, male) face in the race with a strong donor base and compelling personal story. The two appeared on different nights in June, but Detroit could be O’Rourke’s last best chance to reclaim some of that status (if he still can.)
  4. One new face on the scene: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock will make his debate debut, replacing recent drop-out Eric Swalwell. But his pitch as a middle-of-the-country moderate who can work with Republicans will have competition from plenty of others on the stage who are eager to make a similar argument, including Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Hickenlooper.
  5. Night Two candidates probably have an advantage — again: One thing we learned from the first set of debates was that even a candidate who performs well on Night One (i.e. Warren or Castro) gets a maximum of 24 hours of positive coverage before being overshadowed by Night Two’s news. The burden will be on Night One’s contenders in Detroit to break through in a way that keeps them in the spotlight for as long as possible — especially with looming anticipation for Wednesday’s Biden/Harris rematch.

Almanac of American Politics 2020

July 19, 2019 at 8:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Out next month: Almanac of American Politics 2020.

It’s a must-have for any political junkie.

Sale
Almanac of American Politics 2020
Almanac of American Politics 2020
  • English (Publication Language)
  • 2100 Pages - 08/14/2019 (Publication Date) - Columbia Books. Inc. (Publisher)
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Searching In Vain for Trump’s Political Genius

July 19, 2019 at 8:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Aaron Blake: “A big reason we’re all searching for Trump’s Secret Political Genius is that we’re still trying to figure out how we could have gotten 2016 so wrong. He must know something we don’t, after all.”

“But what if it was a fluke? Well, to some degree, it was. And it was a fluke that we all should have known was a possibility.”

“Trump won the presidency by winning three key states — two of which (Michigan and Wisconsin) Hillary Clinton clearly neglected — by less than 1 percentage point each. He did so despite losing the popular vote. He took less of the popular vote than Mitt Romney did (47 percent) in his 2012 loss and about as much as John McCain did (46 percent) in his lopsided 2008 loss. He did so against the other most unpopular presidential nominee in modern political history. It was a perfect storm.”


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Trump Took Heat from Melania Over Racist Chants

July 19, 2019 at 7:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

CBS News has learned President Trump took a lot of heat from his family over the racist chants at a campaign rally in North Carolina on Wednesday.

He heard from first lady Melania Trump, his daughter Ivanka and Vice President Mike Pence.

Iran Denies Trump’s Claim of Downed Drone

July 19, 2019 at 7:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Iran has denied President Trump’s claim that a U.S. warship brought down one of its drones in the strait of Hormuz, The Guardian reports.

The deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, tweeted: “We have not lost any drone in the Strait of Hormuz nor anywhere else. I am worried that USS Boxer has shot down their own UAS [unmanned aerial system] by mistake!”

Quote of the Day

July 19, 2019 at 7:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Owning slaves doesn’t make you racist.”

— New Hampshire state Rep. Werner Horn (R), quoted by USA Today, calling the American institution of slavery an “economic reality.”

Delaney’s Staff Advised Him to Drop Out

July 19, 2019 at 7:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“On July 9, John Delaney’s senior team sat him down and told him to drop out of the presidential race by mid-August, according to three sources close to the campaign,” Axios reports.

“Those close to him think there’s no chance he makes the September debates, which have a harder qualification threshold than the first two. They thought he flopped at the first debate in Miami.”

A common refrain from staffers: “Every other day he would have a different position.”

Electoral Anxiety Drives Trump’s Racist Attacks

July 19, 2019 at 7:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ron Brownstein: “Trump also faces clear evidence that he may be unable to build a winning coalition with just the voters satisfied with his performance in office. That’s evident even with an economy that’s booming, at least according to measures like the low unemployment rate and the soaring stock market.”

“The latest such evidence comes in a new study released today by Navigator Research… The report examines a group that many analysts in both parties believe could prove to be the key bloc of 2020 swing voters: Americans who say they approve of Trump’s management of the economy, but still disapprove of his overall performance as president. And it shows Trump facing significant headwinds among that potentially critical group, partly because of the divisive language and behavior he’s taken to new heights, or lows, since last weekend.”

Democratic Governors Urge 2020 Field Not To Veer Left

July 19, 2019 at 6:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“After claiming governorships from Republicans in seven states last year, including in crucial presidential battlegrounds like Wisconsin and Michigan, Democratic governors should have good reason to celebrate,” the New York Times reports.

“But there was as much anxiety as optimism when the governors gathered for their annual fund-raising retreat on Nantucket last weekend and grappled with why a party that won with a pragmatic message in 2018 is now veering sharply to the left.”

“A group of governors are alarmed that their party’s presidential candidates are embracing policies they see as unrealistic and politically risky. And they are especially concerned about proposals that would eliminate private health insurance.”

Trump Whips Up Frenzy, Then Disavows It

July 19, 2019 at 6:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump returned to a familiar tactic Thursday of blaming others for a problem many believe he created, tossing his own base under the bus to deflect outrage from GOP allies on Capitol Hill and beyond,” Politico reports.

“It’s a throwback to a field-tested Trump playbook: push the rhetoric further than some allies can handle, then tiptoe back to shrug off responsibility.”

Biden, Sanders and Warren Lead Field

July 19, 2019 at 4:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new NBC News-Survey Money poll finds Joe Biden leads the Democratic presidential field with 25%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 16%, Elizabeth Warren at 16%, Kamala Harris at 14% and Pete Buttigieg at 8%.

House Judiciary Asks Hope Hicks to Clarify Testimony

July 18, 2019 at 10:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The House Judiciary Committee is examining the truthfulness of former White House communications director and Trump confidante Hope Hicks’ statements in the aftermath of new documents released on Thursday, asking her to clarify her testimony to the committee last month!” CNN reports.

“The FBI documents released earlier Thursday revealing that one day after the tape came out, former Trump attorney Michael Cohen spoke on the phone with then-campaign spokeswoman Hicks and candidate Donald Trump. Those conversations were apparently about adult film actress Stormy Daniels.”

Trump Plans to Slash Refugee Admissions to Zero

July 18, 2019 at 10:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration is considering a virtual shutdown of refugee admissions next year — cutting the number to nearly zero,” Politico reports.

Labor Fight Roils Bernie Sanders Campaign

July 18, 2019 at 10:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Unionized campaign organizers working for Sen. Bernie Sanders’s presidential effort are battling with its management, arguing that the compensation and treatment they are receiving does not meet the standards Sanders espouses in his rhetoric,” the Washington Post reports.

“Campaign field hires have demanded an annual salary they say would be equivalent to a $15-an-hour wage, which Sanders for years has said should be the federal minimum. The organizers and other employees supporting them have invoked the senator’s words and principles in making their case to campaign manager Faiz Shakir.”

Debate Lineups Set

July 18, 2019 at 8:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris, who clashed at the first Democratic debate, will face off again on July 31, leaving the ideologically aligned Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren to appear together on July 30.

Joining Sanders and Warren on the first night, will be Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former congressman Beto O’Rourke, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Gov. Steve Bullock, Rep. Tim Ryan, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, and Marianne Williamson.

The next night, with Biden and Harris will be Julian Castro, entrepreneur Andrew Yang, Sen. Cory Booker, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Mayor Bill DeBlasio, Sen. Michael Bennet, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, and Gov. Jay Inslee.

Trump Picks Scalia as Labor Secretary

July 18, 2019 at 8:40 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Pres­i­dent Trump in­tends to nom­i­nate Eu­gene Scalia to serve as U.S. sec­re­tary of La­bor, seek­ing to in­stall a well-known fig­ure in la­bor pol­icy atop a de­part­ment that re­cently lost its leader, the Wall Street Journal reports.

McConnell Is Nation’s Most Unpopular Senator

July 18, 2019 at 5:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Morning Consult poll finds Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is America’s most unpopular senator with voters in his state with a 50% disapproval rating, with Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) coming in as a close runner-up at 48%.

By contrast, the poll shows Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) leading the list of most popular senators with an overall 62% job approval rating.

EPA Won’t Ban Pesticide Tied to Kid’s Health Problems

July 18, 2019 at 5:14 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The EPA announced it would not ban a widely used pesticide associated with developmental disabilities and other health problems in children, the New York Times reports.

“The decision not to prohibit the use of the pesticide, chlorpyrifos, comes after years of legal wrangling. It represents a victory for the chemical industry and farmers who have lobbied to continue using the substance, arguing it is necessary to protect crops.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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