“It comes down to this. We’ve cut through the denials. The deflections. The nonsense. Donald Trump believes he can pressure a foreign nation to help him politically. It’s his ‘right.’ Every Republican in Congress has to decide: Is he right?”
— House Intelligence Committee chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA), on Twitter.
This is one of my favorite emails ever:
Political Wire has been a staple of my real-time news consumption since the 2008 presidential election — nearly every day, I wake up and check your site before any other. And since 2015, that early morning jolt is followed by about 15 minutes of whimpering — as well as gentle rocking — in the fetal position. But, that isn’t Political Wire‘s fault. When you relaunched with pay-walled, premium content, I was more than happy to join… In fact, the current administration’s assault on the free press provided the impetus to subscribe to the Washington Post and New York Times digital content as well.
The last year was very bad for me, from a financial standpoint. And as my wife and I cut more and more expenses, including my NYT subscription, I built a (virtual) wall around my Political Wire membership, dug a moat, and then filled it with snakes and alligators. I decided this was $5 we could spare — even when it’s the last $5 in the bank. This decision was not unanimous, but totally worth it.
So, whenever you feel a little pang of hunger gnawing at your tummy, think of this Taeganographer [pointing both thumbs at my idiot-self] and the hill he has decided to die on.
Thanks so much to this reader — and to everyone who supports Political Wire!
A side note: A very generous member sent this reader a gift membership.
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Walter Shapiro: “Four months before the Iowa caucuses, it is time to reckon with the reality that Buttigieg probably has a better chance to be the Democratic nominee than anyone aside from Biden and the surging Warren. With Sanders ailing and Kamala Harris sputtering, Buttigieg has enough money to go the distance (he has raised $44 million in the last six months) and enough polling support to guarantee his place on every debate stage. Whatever happens next, this youthful candidate with a long resume (Harvard, Rhodes Scholar, McKinsey analyst, failed statewide candidate, mayor, and intelligence officer in Afghanistan) has already emerged as the political surprise of 2019.”
“And that raises a new question: Is Buttigieg, who would be four years younger than JFK if he were inaugurated in 2021, ready for the White House? Not ready in the way that Donald Trump was ready (a random first-grader eating paste would undoubtedly do a better job), but ready to be a successful president who would lead America out of the wreckage of the Trump years?”
Politico has a nice interactive guide on where the 2020 presidential candidates stand on the various issues.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign raised $24.6 million in the third quarter, beating the $19 million Warren raised last quarter, Politico reports.
Los Angeles Times: “Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders greatly eclipsed former Vice President Joe Biden in fundraising over the past three months, placing progressive Democrats on strong footing in the crucial final stretch before primary voting begins.”
Washington Post-Schar School poll: “Many Virginians seem to have shrugged off the scandals that engulfed the state’s top Democrats earlier this year, when Northam and Attorney General Mark Herring admitted to blackface incidents in the 1980s and Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax denied claims by two women that he sexually assaulted them in the early 2000s. Northam’s approval rating stands at 47%, with 29% disapproving. Almost a quarter of Virginians have no opinion on his job performance.”
Also interesting: “Trump’s approval rating among Virginia residents is at 39%, with 58% disapproving of his job performance.”
“This is basic stuff. Foreign donors — and certainly foreign governments — cannot participate in the American political process.”
— Mike Pence, in the 2016 vice presidential debate.
Out next week: Deep State: Trump, the FBI, and the Rule of Law by James B. Stewart.
“The stakes could not be higher: the rule of law itself, the foundation of the American constitution and Anglo-American democracy for centuries. In this epic battle, there is no room for compromise. There can only be winners and losers, to invoke a distinctly Trumpian view of the world. But there is plenty of room for collateral damage.”
“During a private phone call in June, President Trump promised Chinese President Xi Jinping that the US would remain quiet on pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong while trade talks continued,” CNN reports.
“The remarkable pledge to the Chinese leader is a dramatic departure from decades of US support for human rights in China and shows just how eager Trump is to strike a deal with Beijing as the trade war weighs on the US economy.”
Meanwhile, the New York Times reports Hong Kong’s embattled leader “invoked emergency powers to ban face masks, deploying a rarely used law that could inflame tensions and erode confidence in a city that depends heavily on international business and tourism.”
“The Supreme Court will review a restrictive Louisiana law that gives the justices the chance to reconsider a recent ruling protecting abortion rights,” the Washington Post reports.
“The court said Friday it would consider whether the 2014 law requiring doctors at abortion clinics to have admitting privileges at nearby hospitals unduly burdens women’s access to abortion. Clinic owners said the effect of the law would be to close most of the state’s abortion clinics and leave the state with only one doctor eligible to perform the procedure.”
Slate: This Supreme Court term will launch a conservative revolution.
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If President Trump survives the serious scandal he now finds himself in, it will be because of Fox News and the rest of conservative media convincing Republican voters that facts are not facts.
Trump instinctively knows that maintaining support among his GOP base is key to his survival. And he knows that his supporters get their “news” from Fox News, conservative talk radio, and several major pro-Trump websites. They get Trump’s direct take on events from his Twitter feed, which is amplified by the rest of the conservative and even mainstream media.
If you wonder why Republican lawmakers won’t speak out against Trump, consider where their voters get their news. If you’re up for re-election, you know you’ll be excoriated if you speak out.
Look at what happened to Sens. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Bob Corker (R-TN). They wisely resigned rather than run for re-election knowing they had no chance in a Republican primary after criticizing Trump. Look at what happened to Rep. Mark Sanford (R-SC). He was handily defeated in a primary after speaking out against the president.
More recently, look at Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI). He was a the darling of conservative media until he spoke out against Trump.
CNN media analyst Brian Stelter emails:
Over the years, right-wing media has successfully managed to lock the Republican Party from access to its own base. Republican voters have been taught not to trust politicians or the mainstream media. So who have they been conditioned to trust? Media personalities like Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Tucker Carlson, etc. Elected Republicans know that speaking out against Trump will result in facing a vicious wrath from the very people who their voters trust most.
No one understands this better than Trump.
Before running for office, Trump spent decades learning how the underbelly of the media world works. He was a regular guest on Fox & Friends, Imus in the Morning and the Howard Stern Show.
Long before he ran for president, Trump developed close relationships with executives at the National Enquirer, Newsmax and Breitbart. Fox News founder Roger Ailes was one of the earliest boosters of his presidential candidacy.
Trump himself was one of the first reality television stars. That’s where he learned to manipulate the emotions of millions of Americans zoning out in front of their televisions each night. There aren’t many people besides Trump who have had hit television shows that aired for more than a decade.
For all his faults, Trump knows his audience. And that’s what protects him.
Would Richard Nixon have been forced to resign after the “smoking gun tape” was discovered if Fox News had been around? It’s highly unlikely.
First Read notes that with the text exchanges released last night, “it’s now worth asking if those ellipses in the transcription memo of Trump’s July 25 call are much more meaningful than we first thought.”
I would like you to do us a favor though because our country has been through a lot and Ukraine knows a lot about it. I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation with Ukraine, they say Crowdstrike … I guess you have one of your wealthy people … The server, they say Ukraine has it.
And:
The other thing, there’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it … It sounds horrible to me.
“Maybe the biggest remaining mystery is whether they are more words from that July 25 conversation we don’t know about.”
First Read highlights the text message exchange released last night that’s received most of the attention:
Ukraine embassy official Bill Taylor on Sept. 9: “As I said on the phone, I think it’s crazy to withhold security assistance for help with a political campaign.”
U.S. Ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland (a major Trump donor): “Bill, I believe you are incorrect about President Trump’s intentions. The President has been crystal clear no quid pro quo’s of any kind. The President is trying to evaluate whether Ukraine is truly going to adopt the transparency and reforms that President Zelensky promised during his campaign I suggest we stop the back and forth by text.”
“Note that Sondland reply came nearly five hours later. (Did he get a tip that the correspondence by text was problematic?)”
David Frum: “Don’t call these texts dumb. Taylor was building a file. If we save the country, his determination to put the facts on record will be an important reason why. Sonderland not dumb either. He recognized what Taylor was doing and demanded Taylor cease. Which Taylor refused to do.“
“Boris Johnson will send a letter to the EU asking for a Brexit delay if no deal is agreed by 19 October, according to government papers submitted to a Scottish court,” the BBC reports.
The Guardian: “The undertaking appears to directly contradict the prime minister’s statements that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October regardless, and unattributed claims from Downing Street that Johnson will find a way to sidestep the act.”
President Trump insisted the text messages released by House Democrats late last night prove there’s nothing to investigate.
Tweeted Trump: “Case Closed!”
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A president caught in a major scandal can usually fall back on several tried and true defenses.
Let’s review them:
There’s no proof the president did anything wrong. This was Richard Nixon’s defense during Watergate until the “smoking gun tape” proved he was lying. It’s not operable for Trump since we’ve known from the beginning that Trump abused his office in an attempted shakedown of Ukraine to get them to investigate Joe Biden. Trump not only admitted it and released documentation proving it, he even did it again on live television.
The president wasn’t involved. This was Ronald Reagan’s defense during the Iran-Contra scandal. Again, it won’t work this time for the reasons cited above.
The president’s actions do not merit impeachment. This was Bill Clinton’s defense. It’s hard to see this working for Trump since it involves the president abusing his office in an attempt to undermine our elections. As many have said, if this doesn’t merit impeachment, nothing will.
Removing the president is undemocratic. This last ditch defense ignores our system of government. It’s true the president was elected by the people but it’s also true that Congress was as well. The Constitution intentionally created these checks and balances for exactly this type of situation.
This leaves Trump with few, if any, good defenses left.
If you’ve watched the president’s allies come to his defense on television in recent days, they’re basically left to using disinformation in an attempt to muddy the waters. It’s painful and infuriating to watch. The facts are indisputable.
It’s only getting harder for Republican lawmakers to defend Trump. While some will stick by his side regardless of circumstance, others are truly worried about being undermined when Trump changes his story or new facts emerge. Most Republicans at this point seem content to stay very quiet rather than commit themselves to one of the above defenses.
While the Republican base will continue to defend Trump in the face of facts, it’s impossible to see how the president isn’t slowly losing voters truly in the middle. Unlike Nixon and Clinton, Trump has another election ahead of him and none of this is helping his chances.
At some level, it’s apparent from Trump’s wild behavior this week that he knows this.
Axios shows just how strong that wall is: 51 Republican senators from states Trump won in 2016. He only needs 34 to save him from being convicted and removed from office if the House impeaches him.
The bottom line: Trump believes the combination of right-wing media backing plus GOP senators’ fear of crossing Trump voters will save him.
“The poll numbers are in on impeachment, and it’s not good news for President Trump. A clear plurality of Americans approve of the House’s impeachment inquiry into Trump, and they are split on whether they want to impeach and remove him from office,” CNN reports.
“Americans are more eager to impeach Trump now than they were at similar points in the impeachment sagas of Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.