A new Economist/YouGov poll finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic presidential race with 22%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 16%, Bernie Sanders at 13%, Kamala Harris at 8% and Pete Buttigieg at 8%.
Democrats Favored to Retain House
Cook Political Report: “Overall, Democrats are favorites to retain the majority, more likely a reduced than expanded one. If the 23 seats currently in the Toss Up column were to split evenly between the parties, Republicans would gain a net of five seats, less than a third of what they need.”
“But there is a long way to go, and impeachment/presidential politics as well as open seats could substantially alter this outlook.”
Rachel Bitecofer: 18 Top Targets for Democrats in the House for 2020
Quote of the Day
“I think my rhetoric brings people together. Our country is doing really well.”
— President Trump, quoted by The Hill, before leaving the White House to visit two cities that experienced mass shootings last weekend.
The GOP Has Autocratic Fever
Aaron Blake: “Five years ago, congressional Republicans blasted former president Barack Obama as ‘Emperor Obama’ and compared him to a king for his executive actions, most notably those protecting some undocumented immigrants. Ten years ago, conservative activists launched the tea party movement in large part as a call for a more limited federal government.”
“Today, conservative Republicans have moved sharply toward embracing a more powerful chief executive with fewer checks and balances.”
“A new Pew Research Center poll, in fact, finds that a majority of conservative Republicans (52%) agree that many problems would be solved ‘if U.S. presidents didn’t have to worry so much about Congress or the courts.’ Just 41% choose the other option, that it ‘would be too risky to give U.S. presidents more power’ to confront problems.”
“This represents a sea change in the party. The number favoring fewer checks and balances has doubled just since last year, when only 26% favored a more powerful executive.”
Warren Makes a Play for Rural Voters
“Sen. Elizabeth Warren wants to invest an additional $200 billion in rural communities to boost population, add new jobs and place a focus on sustainable practices that would increase farmers’ pay,” the Des Moines Register reports.
“The multi-point plan aims to encourage people to live, work and raise families in small towns by giving them tools to thrive as rural communities across Iowa and America face declining populations, jobs and services.”
Wall Street Journal: “Warren is calling for an $85 billion investment in publicly owned and operated broadband networks to expand internet access across the country.”
Some Republicans Walk Out Instead of Speaking Up
First Read: “The story of these retirements isn’t just that some of them open up pickup opportunities for Democrats, though. It’s that they show just how uncomfortable many rank-and-file Republicans have been in the Trump era.”
“Retirements are typically a tell about how members view their party’s chances in the next election. And yes, some of these folks are in their late 70s or older. And of course, the no-fun realities of being in the minority have a way of pushing burnt-out members towards the door.”
“But these retirements also reflect an environment so toxic that even members with safe seats (and potentially promising futures on the Hill) are throwing in the towel.”
“With the current relentless news cycles about race and rhetoric — punctuated by the weekend’s racially-motivated attack in El Paso — are members really getting any less motivated to call it quits?”
A Two Person Race?
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The latest Quinnipiac poll suggests the Democratic presidential race could soon be a two-way contest between Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.
The poll shows Biden leading Warren 32% to 21%, with Bernie Sanders at 14% and Kamala Harris at 7%.
But Warren’s performance in the first debates suggest she has the clearest message for why she wants to be president. Her message goes beyond just defeating President Trump and her “I’ve got a plan for that” line suggests she’s thought out the major issues facing the country. The poll found Warren has the best policy ideas, edging out Sanders 32% tos 16%.
And Warren also appears to be the most organized in the early primary and caucus states.
But the Quinnipiac poll also shows most Democrats think Biden is the most electable on the Democratic candidates: 49% say he has the best chance of winning. And Democrats nationwide say ousting Trump is by far their top priority.
Of course, it’s way too early to dismiss the other candidates. But it’s still helpful to look at the Democratic race as between a candidate who can beat Trump versus one with the most compelling ideas. The ideal candidate will bridge that gap.
Can Biden convince Democrats he can move the country forward in ways that Barack Obama failed?
Can Warren convince Democrats that she’s more “electable” than Biden?
It’s worth noting that at this point in the 2008 and 2016 residential elections, both Obama and Trump were considered less electable than those running against them in their respective primaries. Few thought someone named Barack Hussein Obama just six years after 9/11 could defeat a national war hero in a general election. And few thought a buffoonish reality television star who bragged about assaulting women could defeat a woman who served as Secretary of State.
In other words, they were both considered unelectable until they were elected.
Trump Should Worry About His Disapproval Rating
Jonathan Bernstein: “Trump remains unpopular. The FiveThirtyEight poll tracker estimates he’s at 42.3% approval and 52.2% disapproval. The historical comparison is as bad as ever: Of the 11 polling-era presidents through 929 days in office (Gerald Ford didn’t serve this long), he’s second-worst, beating only Jimmy Carter – and his disapproval just dropped behind Carter’s once again, making him dead last on that score.”
“It’s theoretically possible that an incumbent with a 42% approval rating could be reelected. Perhaps the electorate will be disproportionately drawn from those who like Trump. Perhaps there’s a polling error in his favor. Maybe an unusually high number of people who think he’s doing a bad job will vote for him anyway. After all, lots of voters picked Trump in 2016 even though they didn’t like him. And maybe he gets lucky again with the Electoral College.”
“That’s a lot of maybes, though, and none of them are guaranteed to help Trump. In fact, some of them could easily leave him doing worse than his polling suggests.”
Republicans Head to Runoff for Mississippi Governor
Mississippi Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) and former state Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller Jr. (R) are headed to a runoff for the Republican nomination for Mississippi governor, the Jackson Clarion Ledger reports.
“Reeves, long considered the heir apparent to the governorship, received nearly 49% of votes… Waller picked up more than 33%, and first-term lawmaker Robert Foster finished with almost 18%. Reeves had tried to ignore his primary opponents, but will now face off with Waller in an Aug. 27 runoff election.”
“In the Democratic race, Attorney General Jim Hood (D) easily advanced to the general election, garnering 69 percent of votes.”
Cost of Trump’s New Air Force One Has Skyrocketed
President Trump’s new Air Force One fleet will cost a total of $5.2 billion, up from the 2016 estimate of $3.2 billion, Air Force Magazine reports.
In early 2017, President Trump claimed he negotiated with Boeing to lower the price by about $1 billion.
South Korea Flustered Over Trump’s Claim
“South Koreans were left flustered on Wednesday after President Trump asserted that he had made their government pay $500 million more to help cover the cost of maintaining American troops in the country,” the New York Times reports.
“The claim contradicted the terms of a cost-sharing deal South Korea and the United States signed on Sunday after months of contentious negotiations. Under the one-year deal, this year South Korea will pay $925 million, an increase of $70 million from last year’s $855 million.”
How Trump Is Connected to Both Mass Shootings
Ross Douthat: “What links Donald Trump to the men who massacred innocents in El Paso and Dayton this past weekend? Note that I said both men: the one with the white-nationalist manifesto and the one with some kind of atheist-socialist politics; the one whose ranting about a ‘Hispanic invasion’ echoed Trump’s own rhetoric and the one who was anti-Trump and also apparently the lead singer in a ‘pornogrind’ band.”
“Bringing up their differing worldviews can be a way for Trump-supporting or anti-anti-Trump conservatives to diminish or dismiss the president’s connection to these shootings. That’s not what I’m doing. I think Trump is deeply connected to what happened last weekend, deeply connected to both massacres. Not because his immigration rhetoric drove the El Paso shooter to mass murder in some direct and simple way; life and radicalism and violence are all more complicated than that. But because Trump participates in the general cultural miasma that generates mass shooters, and having a participant as president makes the problem worse.”
El Paso Braces for Trump Visit
President Trump “was expected to be greeted with denunciations from some El Paso leaders when he visits Wednesday,” the El Paso Times reports.
“Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-TX), along with the Border Network for Human Rights and Women’s March El Paso, plan a gathering at 12:30 p.m. in Washington Park. That’s down the street from University Medical Center, where Trump is expected to meet with survivors of the shooting Saturday that left 22 people dead. Organizers say the event is meant to honor those killed, call for gun control and confront white supremacy.”
“Meanwhile, area medical workers began a petition asking University Medical Center, a hospital treating several of the wounded shooting victims, not to host Trump.”
Biden Will Link Trump to Shooting
Joe Biden is expected to link President Trump to the mass shooting in El Paso, Texas in a speech later today, saying the president has “fanned the flames of white supremacy,” The Hill reports.
From the speech: “Trump offers no moral leadership; no interest in unifying the nation, no evidence the presidency has awakened his conscience in the least. Instead we have a president with a toxic tongue who has publicly and unapologetically embraced a political strategy of hate, racism, and division.”
“So it’s up to us. We’re living through a rare moment in this nation’s history. Where our president isn’t up to the moment. Where our president lacks the moral authority to lead. Where our president has more in common with George Wallace than George Washington. We are almost 330 million Americans who have to do what our president can’t. Stand together. Stand against hate. Stand up for what — at our best — this nation believes.”
Trump Tells Beto O’Rourke to ‘Be Quiet’
President Trump tweeted late Tuesday night questioning the authenticity of Beto O’Rourke’s name and telling the former Texas congressman to “be quiet.”
Said Trump: “Beto (phony name to indicate Hispanic heritage) O’Rourke, who is embarrassed by my last visit to the Great State of Texas, where I trounced him, and is now even more embarrassed by polling at 1% in the Democrat Primary, should respect the victims & law enforcement – & be quiet!”
O’Rourke responds: “22 people in my hometown are dead after an act of terror inspired by your racism. El Paso will not be quiet and neither will I.”
Ads Pulled for New Thriller After Mass Shootings
Hollywood Reporter: “In the aftermath of mass shootings within days of one another that shocked and traumatized the nation, Universal is re-evaluating its strategy for the certain-to-be-controversial satire. The violent, R-rated film from producer Jason Blum’s Blumhouse follows a dozen MAGA types who wake up in a clearing and realize they are being stalked for sport by elite liberals.”
North Korea Says Missile Launches Were a Warning
Associated Press: “North Korea said Wednesday leader Kim Jong Un supervised a live-fire demonstration of newly developed, short-range ballistic missiles intended to send a warning to the United States and South Korea over their joint military exercises.”
NRA Discussed Buying Mansion for Its Chief Executive
“Documents indicate that the National Rifle Association planned to purchase a luxury mansion in the Dallas area last year for the use of chief executive Wayne LaPierre,” the Washington Post reports.
“The discussions about the roughly $6 million purchase, which was not completed, are now under scrutiny by New York investigators. The transaction was slated to be made through a corporate entity that received a wire of tens of thousands of dollars from the NRA in 2018.”
