An Electoral College Tie in 2020 Would Go to the GOP
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The Republican presidential nominee has won a majority in the Electoral College twice in the last five elections (2000 and 2016) despite finishing second in the popular vote. Heading into 2020, it may be that the GOP nominee could lose the popular vote, only tie in the Electoral College, and still win the presidency. That’s because the Republicans are likely to hold an edge in the process that would be used to resolve an Electoral College tie or any other situation where none of the candidates secure the required Electoral College majority to win the presidency outright (270 or more electoral votes).”
“Such a situation is certainly not likely, but it’s not impossible either. As we look ahead to the 2020 presidential race, there is a plausible Electoral College map where neither side is able to get the 270 electoral votes needed for a majority.”
What Makes This Shutdown Worse Than Others
Joshua Green: “There are two main reasons this shutdown has become a little scary—and together they should cause us to shift our appraisal of U.S. politics to something even more dire than it was before the showdown began. The first way this shutdown is distinct is that the president himself engineered it. Previous ones were always forced by the legislative branch to try to extract concessions—legal status for immigrants, reduced health-care spending—from a president of the opposing party. Such hostage-taking usually proved futile and ended in disappointment.”
“The second distinguishing feature of this shutdown is that it hasn’t produced the kind of immediate backlash that compels both sides to return to negotiations. A close look at public opinion surrounding the impasse and its central issue shows why: Post-midterm elections, the two parties have grown so polarized, and voters so tribal, that there’s no meaningful ‘center’ that Trump or Democrats risk losing.”
Gardner Will Break with GOP to End Shutdown
Sen. Cory Gardner’s (R-CO) spokesman told the Denver Post that he “intends to vote for a clean funding bill that would open the government with no increased border-security funding attached.”
Trump Will Postpone State of the Union Speech
President Trump signaled a retreat from his standoff with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, announcing on Twitter that he will wait till the shutdown is over to deliver the State of the Union address to Congress, the Washington Post reports.
“The cancellation — part of an escalating and at times personal feud between the newly elected Democratic speaker and the Republican president — illustrates the extent of the dysfunction that has gripped Washington and America’s body politic amid the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history.”
Playbook: “This is a big win for Pelosi. It re-establishes that Pelosi is, indeed, in charge of the legislative branch, and there is little Trump can do about that. Republicans were winning the daily political churn Wednesday because they were talking about SOTU, not the shutdown, for which they are being blamed. And then Trump caved to Pelosi.”
Where Both Sides Stand on Shutdown
Playbook: “Pelosi is holding her position — no wall — but is showing a bit of flexibility. This was never about the money, which is why Democrats are willing to give Trump more than he asked for, but for border security, not the wall.”
“Pelosi and McConnell — both experienced appropriators — can figure out how to give both sides a way to declare victory here. New fencing where it’s necessary. Repaired fencing where it’s needed. More — and new — technology. Trump can actually win on the number — $5.7 billion — but he’ll have to lose on the wall.”
Pompeo Discourages Speculation on Senate Bid
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo “came close to shutting the door Wednesday on a possible U.S. Senate race, but left it open a crack,” McClatchy reports.
“Pompeo did not explicitly rule out a run, but said his ‘singular focus’ was on his current post and that he plans to serve as long as President Trump wants.”
Ex-Homeland Security Chiefs Issue Warning on Shutdown
Five former Department of Homeland Security secretaries — including former White House chief of staff John Kelly — wrote a letter to Congress and President Trump urging them to restore funding to the agency to ensure that its “critical national security functions continue without compromise,” Axios reports.
Watching Kellyanne Conway Leak to the Media
Vanity Fair runs an excerpt from Team of Vipers by former White House aide Cliff Sims in which Kellyanne Conway lends him her personal MacBook to type up a statement defending her against charges of leaking to the media.
I sat down and started slowly pecking out a statement. While working in the White House, I found that I’d grown so accustomed to writing in Trump’s voice that writing for other people had become somewhat harder than it normally would have been. I was already getting off to a slow start, but I was also getting distracted by the nonstop stream of iMessages popping up on the screen. At that point, personal phones had not yet been banned in the West Wing, so Kellyanne was sitting at her desk texting away. And since her iMessage account was tied to both her phone and her laptop, which she must not have even considered, I could inadvertently see every conversation she was having.
Over the course of 20 minutes or so, she was having simultaneous conversations with no fewer than a half-dozen reporters, most of them from outlets the White House frequently trashed for publishing “fake news.” Journalists from The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN, Politico, and Bloomberg were all popping up on the screen. And these weren’t policy conversations, or attempts to fend off attacks on the president. As I sat there trying to type, she bashed Jared Kushner, Reince Priebus, Steve Bannon, and Sean Spicer, all by name.
I was sitting there, watching this, totally bewildered. I was supposed to be writing a statement, defending her against accusations that she had done almost exactly what I was watching her do that very moment.
Trump Thought Pelosi Was Bluffing
“White House officials were caught off guard Wednesday by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi formally disinviting President Trump from giving his State of the Union address from the House chamber, leaving them scrambling for a response,” CNN reports.
“White House officials had believed Pelosi wanted only to postpone Trump’s State of the Union for political reasons after she sent a letter to him last week asking him to delay the address until after the partial government shutdown ended. The plan from administration officials was to call her bluff by pressing forward with plans to deliver the speech, including a new letter on Wednesday that they hoped would force her hand.”
“Now they’re left exploring alternative venues.”
Kushner Thrusts Himself Into Shutdown Debate
“Jared Kushner spoke up at a recent Oval Office meeting about cutting a deal to end the government shutdown, which has been the latest project for President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser,” the Washington Post reports.
“After listening to Kushner expound on policy and possible areas of compromise with Democrats, Trump glanced at the others in the room. ‘Apparently, Jared has become an expert on immigration in the last 48 hours,’ Trump said.”
“The remark, described by one White House official as playful, underscored the latest power shift inside the White House: Kushner has emerged as an omnipresent and assertive player in the now-33-day impasse, despite deep skepticism on Capitol Hill about his political abilities and influence.”
More See Mueller Probe as Justified
A new CBS News poll finds that 50% of Americans now think the special counsel’s Russia investigation is justified, while 45% think it is politically motivated.
“As recently as November, a slight majority of Americans felt the investigation was politically motivated. This shift in opinion is due to more Democrats calling it justified. Eighty-three percent of Republicans continue to say the Russia investigation is politically motivated, the same as in November.”
Milwaukee Solidifies Bid for 2020 Democratic Convention
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that organizers “have cleared the last major hurdle in the city’s quest to host the event by lining up a third-party line of credit.”
Said Barrett: “I have secured a line of credit, which is guaranteed, that really meets the needs that have been brought to us. And I’m continuing to do more.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“When Nancy Pelosi says a wall is immoral, we look at that and go, ‘How is a wall immoral? Look, I have four walls around my house and they keep bad people out and critters out.”
— Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL). quoted by the Washington Post.
White House Preparing for Long Shutdown
“White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney has pressed agency leaders to provide him with a list of the highest-impact programs that will be jeopardized if the shutdown continues into March and April,” the Washington Post reports.
“Mulvaney wants the list no later than Friday… and it’s the firmest evidence to date that the White House is preparing for a lengthy funding lapse that could have snowballing consequences for the economy and government services.”
Why Trump Won’t Get a Deal on Immigration
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Trump’s Approval Plummets During Shutdown
A new AP/NORC poll finds just 34% of Americans approve of President Trump’s job performance.
“That’s down from 42% a month earlier and nears the lowest mark of his two-year presidency. The president’s approval among Republicans remains close to 80%, but his standing with independents is among its lowest points of his time in office.”
Quote of the Day
“Are you fucking serious, Mikey?! What about my family? You gave zero shits about my baby. In all serious though, this is why you shouldn’t back down! This is your chance to be a hero! I’ll loan you some of my balls, hold your hand, or whatever else you need to do the right thing.”
— Stormy Daniels, excoriating Michael Cohen on Twitter, for postponing his testimony before the House Oversight Committee because of threats from President Trump.
