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Citizenship Question Would Lead to Census Undercount

April 22, 2019 at 8:21 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Monkey Cage: “The Trump administration’s attempt to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census reaches the Supreme Court on Tuesday. Thus far, three federal judges have ruled against the Trump administration, most recently in Maryland. The Supreme Court will consider not only whether the administration violated administrative law, but also whether its attempt violated the Constitution.”

“A crucial issue in the case is whether adding this question for the first time since 1950 will hurt the ability of the census to accurately count the American population. In particular, critics of the administration fear the question will dissuade some U.S. residents, especially immigrants, from answering the census.”

“Research suggests these fears are justified. Working separately, we have used surveys and experiments to show that the citizenship question would make people less likely to respond to the census and provide complete information if they do respond. This is particularly true for Latinos and immigrants.”

Young Voters Expect to Play a Bigger Role

April 22, 2019 at 7:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Harvard Institute of Politics poll of voters between 18 and 29 years old finds that 43% say they will likely vote in their party’s presidential primary or caucus.

At this stage in 2015, just 36% said the same.

Trump Could Be Indicted When He Leaves Office

April 22, 2019 at 7:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former U.S. attorney Preet Bharara told CNN that President Trump could be prosecuted when he is out of office and that the Mueller report made it clear the Mueller team believes there is “future legal jeopardy.”


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Supply Side Warriors Blaze a Comeback

April 22, 2019 at 7:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “A quintet of Ronald Reagan appointees — Larry Kudlow, Art Laffer, Steve Forbes, Stephen Moore and David Malpass — united by undying affection for each other and for laissez-faire economics, have the run of Washington once more. Members of the tight-knit group have shaped Trump’s signature tax cut, helped install each other in posts with vast influence over the global economy, and are working to channel Trump’s mercantilist instincts into pro-trade policies.”

“Blasted by their critics as charlatans and lauded by their acolytes as tireless champions of prosperity, there’s no denying the quintet has had an enduring impact on decades of economic policy.”

U.S. Seeks to End All Iranian Oil Exports

April 22, 2019 at 7:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The State Department is set to announce that all countries will have to completely end their imports of Iranian oil or be subject to U.S. sanctions,” the Washington Post reports.

“On Monday morning, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will announce to the media that, as of May 2, the State Department will no longer grant sanctions waivers to any country that is currently importing Iranian crude or condensate.”

Buttigieg Scrambles to Turn Buzz Into Momentum

April 22, 2019 at 6:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “There are no policy positions on his website. He has virtually no paid presence in the states that matter most. And his campaign manager is a high school friend with no experience in presidential politics.”

“Welcome to the campaign of Pete Buttigieg, the 37-year-old Indiana mayor who has suddenly become one of the hottest names in the Democrats’ presidential primary season. Yet there is an increasing urgency, inside and outside of the campaign, that his moment may pass if he doesn’t take swift action to build a national organization capable of harnessing the energy he’ll need to sustain his surge in the nine months or so before the first votes are cast.”

Trumps Wins Over Donors Who Snubbed Him In 2016

April 22, 2019 at 6:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Deep-pocketed Republicans who snubbed Donald Trump in 2016 are going all in for him in 2020, throwing their weight behind a newly created fundraising drive that’s expected to dump tens of millions into his reelection coffers.”

“The effort involves scores of high-powered businessmen, lobbyists and former ambassadors who raised big money for George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney — and who are now preparing to tap their expansive networks for Trump after rebuffing his first presidential bid.”

House Democrats Discuss Mueller Report

April 22, 2019 at 6:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Off the campaign trail on on Capitol Hill, where this is a reality, not a theoretical exercise for people looking to curry favor with a narrow electorate, this issue will come to the fore today when Speaker Nancy Pelosi gathers House Democrats on a conference call to discuss the Mueller report. Inevitably, whether it’s brought up directly or not, their impeachment dilemma will be top of mind for many Democrats.”

“Of course, Pelosi has been exceedingly cautious about the prospect of impeachment, partially as a tool to help her lawmakers fend off endless questions — and pressure — about removing the president.”

“Politically, impeachment would be a messy, all-consuming process that would grind legislation to a halt. Democrats have said on repeat that they were elected not to impeach the president, but rather to lower prescription drug prices and enact other policies to help working Americans. All of that would go nowhere if Democrats were impeaching Trump.”

Moulton Kicks Off 2020 Bid

April 22, 2019 at 6:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) officially launched his 2020 presidential campaign on Monday., Axios reports.

Trump Aides Wield the Pen

April 22, 2019 at 6:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump glanced around the room and noticed Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, then his national security adviser, with his head bent over a notebook, scribbling something down,” the New York Times reports.

“General McMaster was a prolific note-taker, recording details for later reference, a practice that hardly seemed unusual to someone in charge of a sprawling national security apparatus. But it enraged Mr. Trump, who one day, according to people in the room, finally snapped at his adviser.”

Demanded Trump: “‘Why are you always writing in that book?”

Pompeo Opposes Military Intervention In Iran

April 21, 2019 at 6:41 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

In a closed-door meeting with Iranian-American community leaders last Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the Trump administration is “not going to do a military exercise inside Iran” to expedite a regime change, Axios reports.

“Pompeo also sought to distance the Trump administration from a controversial Iranian resistance group that has welcomed John Bolton and Rudy Giuliani as speakers in a private capacity.”

Pondering Trump’s Second Term

April 21, 2019 at 5:16 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Atlantic: “Trump’s reelection seems implausible to many people, as implausible as his election did before November 2016. But despite the scandals and chaos of his presidency, and despite his party’s midterm losses, he approaches 2020 with two factors in his favor. One is incumbency: Since 1980, voters have only once denied an incumbent a second term. The other is a relatively strong economy (at least as of now). Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University who weights both of those factors heavily in his election-forecasting model, gives Trump close to an even chance of reelection, based on a projected 2 percent GDP growth rate for the first half of 2020.”

“So far, much of the concern about the long-term effects of Trump’s presidency has centered on his antidemocratic tendencies. But even if we take those off the table—even if we assume that Trump continues to be hemmed in by other parts of the government and by outside institutions, and that he governs no more effectively than he has until now—the impact of a second term would be more lasting than that of the first.”

The Hearings Are Next

April 21, 2019 at 10:09 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Boston Globe: “Democrats may also try to amplify some of Mueller’s most damning findings by calling former Trump staffers to testify about the president’s persistent orders to interfere with the investigation.”

“Mueller’s report suggests the president is hyper-attuned to the power of televised hearings to dominate the news and shape narratives about his presidency — and that he won’t hesitate to try to influence or shame witnesses. And his penchant for trying to derail investigations into his conduct is already evident in how his administration is handling the new Democratic majority in the House”

Trump Governs as a Mob Boss

April 21, 2019 at 10:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Guardian: “If the tone of these secret conversations, revealed in Mueller’s long-awaited report this week, remind you of Tony Soprano – the amoral, brooding, charismatic, philandering, thuggish crime boss in the eponymous TV drama – ordering a hit on one his enemies, you are not alone.”

“Over 448 pages, Mueller does not present Trump as a traitor but does portray him as a serial liar willing to abuse power, shred norms and bend the rule of law in a White House rotten to the core. Amid this culture of malfeasance and mendacity, trusted lieutenants are expected to demonstrate absolute loyalty, up to and including obstructing justice to save the president’s skin.”

GOP Lawmaker Discussed Violent Attacks

April 21, 2019 at 9:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington state Rep. Matt Shea (R) “took part in private discussions with rightwing figures about carrying out surveillance, ‘psyops’ and even violent attacks on perceived political enemies,” according to chat records obtained by the Guardian.

Shea “did not demur from any of these suggestions. He also appeared willing to participate directly in surveillance of activists.”

“The men talked about the broad outlines of what they appeared to consider to be a looming civil war. They also discussed using symbols from what they understood to be Russian anti-communist groups as a way of spreading paranoia among their adversaries.”

Trump Continues His Rants Against Mueller

April 21, 2019 at 9:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump on Sunday continued to wage an attack against special counsel Robert Mueller, calling his investigation’s report a “hit job” and claiming it was written by “The Trump Haters and Angry Democrats,” The Hill reports.

Said Trump: “The Trump Haters and Angry Democrats who wrote the Mueller Report were devastated by the No Collusion finding. Nothing but a total ‘hit job’ which should never have been allowed to start in the first place!”

How Michael Cohen Turned on Trump

April 21, 2019 at 9:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

As Michael Cohen “prepares to head to prison in two weeks, dozens of previously unreported emails, text messages and other confidential documents reviewed by the New York Times suggest that his falling out with Mr. Trump may have been avoidable.”

“Missed cues, clashing egos, veiled threats and unaddressed money worries all contributed to Mr. Cohen’s halting decision to turn on a man he had long idolized and even once vowed to take a bullet for… Mr. Cohen’s anxiety, on display in the documents, played a role in the undoing of his relationship with Mr. Trump… But also looming large were Mr. Giuliani’s and Mr. Trump’s failures to understand the threat that Mr. Cohen posed, and their inability — or unwillingness — to put his financial and emotional insecurities to rest.”

New York Times: Why it matters that Trump and Cohen had a falling out.

Supreme Court Takes Up Census Case

April 21, 2019 at 9:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Supreme Court this week takes up the most consequential Trump administration initiative since last term’s travel ban, with the justices considering whether a question about citizenship can be added to the 2020 Census,” the Washington Post reports.

“The time frame for a decision will be tight, as the Census Bureau must know by the end of June whether the question may be included on the 2020 form. Arguments are scheduled for Tuesday.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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