“Only three of the major Democratic contenders hail from states Trump won in 2016, and most of the candidates who’ve run for statewide office haven’t had to — or been able to — win where the president was strong,” Bloomberg reports.

“A nominee who could win traditional Democratic-leaning states like Michigan and Pennsylvania might give the party its best shot of retaking the White House.”

Said William Frey, a senior demographer at Brookings: “There’s a lot of evidence to suggest that if they played it safe this time, that might be the way to go.”

Wall Street Journal: “Of the seven Republican senators up for re-election in seats rated as Lean Republican or Likely Republican in 2020 by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, only Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) voted to terminate the national emergency. Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO), who is running in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016, voted to uphold the president’s emergency declaration.”

“The other 11 Republicans besides Ms. Collins who voted with the entire Democratic caucus and dared break with the president won’t face re-election fights this cycle, though some have still faced backlash.”

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “As usual, the presidential outcome will depend heavily on factors beyond the full control of anyone, such as the state of the economy. Democrats only control who they nominate and what they emphasize in the campaign. The long campaign can give them the opportunity to size up the contenders and (they hope) choose the one with the best chance against Trump. Or they could pick another George McGovern, Walter Mondale, or Michael Dukakis — weak nominees, all. On policy, Democrats have a wide variety of subjects that could allow them to make a favorable contrast with Trump: climate change, health care, and economic fairness, just to mention three. The message and the messenger will be critical. The Democrats did not really run on the Mueller probe in the 2018 campaign, and for the most part, the 2020 candidates haven’t really been doing that either. Now the Democratic contenders will certainly not do so, though other investigations of Trump may bear fruit and become campaign fodder.”

“2020 should be a close, competitive, high-turnout election with both sides energized, given what we know today. But lots of factors can tilt the result one way or another. What’s not going to change is Donald Trump. People decided a long time ago what they thought of him, and it has hardened into concrete for the millions who love him as well as the millions who hate him. While we do not know in detail what the full Mueller report will say, the Barr summary, whatever its biases and omissions, suggests what we already thought was the likeliest scenario: The fate of the Trump presidency is on track to be decided at the ballot box, as opposed to a courtroom or impeachment proceeding. That may be a good thing or a bad thing, but like Coca-Cola, it’s the real thing.”

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 48% of Americans surveyed still say they believe that President Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia — down just six points over the last week — despite a summary of the special counsel’s investigation that claimed there was no evidence to support that finding.

Axios: “The Democratic campaigns are getting all the attention right now, but the Trump team is following them closely, sending trackers and watching all of the candidates for liberal base-pleasing proposals — like packing the Supreme Court — that they can use to make the eventual nominee look extreme.”

“The Republican National Committee, which is taking the lead on opposition research ahead of 2020 in coordination with the campaign, has been funding a network of trackers in all the early states. It’s already out filming Democratic candidates, trying to catch their mistakes — especially in smaller, more rural settings away from the eyes of the national media.”