Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “As usual, the presidential outcome will depend heavily on factors beyond the full control of anyone, such as the state of the economy. Democrats only control who they nominate and what they emphasize in the campaign. The long campaign can give them the opportunity to size up the contenders and (they hope) choose the one with the best chance against Trump. Or they could pick another George McGovern, Walter Mondale, or Michael Dukakis — weak nominees, all. On policy, Democrats have a wide variety of subjects that could allow them to make a favorable contrast with Trump: climate change, health care, and economic fairness, just to mention three. The message and the messenger will be critical. The Democrats did not really run on the Mueller probe in the 2018 campaign, and for the most part, the 2020 candidates haven’t really been doing that either. Now the Democratic contenders will certainly not do so, though other investigations of Trump may bear fruit and become campaign fodder.”
“2020 should be a close, competitive, high-turnout election with both sides energized, given what we know today. But lots of factors can tilt the result one way or another. What’s not going to change is Donald Trump. People decided a long time ago what they thought of him, and it has hardened into concrete for the millions who love him as well as the millions who hate him. While we do not know in detail what the full Mueller report will say, the Barr summary, whatever its biases and omissions, suggests what we already thought was the likeliest scenario: The fate of the Trump presidency is on track to be decided at the ballot box, as opposed to a courtroom or impeachment proceeding. That may be a good thing or a bad thing, but like Coca-Cola, it’s the real thing.”
