Robert McCulloch, the lead prosecutor of St. Louis County and the man many blame for failing to get justice after Michael Brown, an unarmed black teenager was shot by police in 2014, was unseated Tuesday night by challenger Wesley Bell, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
“Political observers gave Bell little chance, saying that McCulloch’s 28 years in office and fundraising advantage made it nearly impossible for Bell to win.”
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) “said he supports giving President Trump billions of dollars for his border wall this fall — a sharp break from the rest of the party planning to spurn Trump’s wall in spending negotiations this fall,” Politico reports.
Said Donnelly: “I’m fine with providing him some more. I actually voted for border wall funding three different times.”
Playbook: “Republicans avoided a multi-faceted disaster last night. If they lost, money would’ve gone dry… Balderson’s tight-as-a-tick victory should put all GOP incumbents on notice that this is a very challenging electoral climate. It’s the second-tier candidates — the R+5s to R+10s — who need to watch their backs. Endangered incumbents are already well aware they have races.”
“Moral victories warm hearts, but don’t win power back. Democrats will take solace that they kept this thing close. But the reality is: Dems have flipped a total of one single House seat in nine special elections since Trump became president. We’re not saying they don’t have an extremely favorable electoral climate — they do — but near victories don’t count.”
However: “The GOP has so far overcompensated for a bad environment — and bad candidates — by spending heaps of money. They spent $3.1 million here and $3.5 million in an unsuccessful bid to drag Rick Saccone over the finish line against Conor Lamb. There is simply no way they can keep doing that.”
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Washington Post: “The Democratic Party’s left-wing insurgency found its limits Tuesday night, with voters favoring establishment candidates over more liberal challengers in almost every closely watched race across several states.”
”Candidates backed by Emily’s List, which endorses women and sometimes clashes with the left, bested left-wing challengers in three southeast Michigan districts; at least two are seen as toss-ups in November. Early Tuesday evening, just one Sanders-backed candidate in a competitive primary was in the lead; Brent Welder, a labor lawyer running in Kansas’s 3rd Congressional District, benefited from a crowd of five less-liberal candidates who split the vote.”
New York Times: “The most significant harbinger from the Ohio race may not be the narrow margin, but the turnout gap between the most and least heavily populated parts of a district that absorbs the close-in suburbs of Columbus and rural stretches of central Ohio.”
“In both Franklin County, which includes Columbus, and Delaware County, the fast-growing suburb just north of Ohio’s capital, 42% of voters turned out. But in the five more lightly populated counties that round out the district, turnout ranged from 27 to 32%.”
“This is an ominous sign for Republicans: The highest-income and best-educated elements of the electorate — those deeply uneasy with President Trump — are showing the most interest in voting.”
Washington Post: “The tight race between Democrat Danny O’Connor and Republican Troy Balderson in a deep-red Ohio House district Tuesday reinforced a trend that has been developing for more than a year: Democrats are routinely beating their 2016 performance by double digits — putting the House and perhaps even the Senate within their grasp in November.”
“In Ohio’s 12th Congressional District, which encompasses the northern suburbs of Columbus and rural expanses to the east, voters preferred President Trump by 11 points and GOP Rep. Patrick Tiberi by 37 points in 2016. But with the race too close to call late Tuesday night, those voters showed a marked shift away from Republicans.”
Micah Cohen: “Ohio 12 looks to have shifted by about 13 points towards Democrats relative to its partisan lean (how we would expect it to vote in a neutral political environment)… That’s just about in line with Democrats’ average overperformance in these elections in the Trump era. Special elections have been a good sign for Democratic midterm hopes for awhile now, and Ohio 12 was no exception (even if Balderson hangs on).“
Wichita Eagle: “Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) and Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) remained effectively tied in the Kansas Republican race for governor early Wednesday, hours after Sen. Laura Kelly (D) won the Democratic contest.”
“Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette and former state Senate Democratic Leader Gretchen Whitmer will compete to be Michigan’s next governor after winning party primary fights Tuesday night,” the Detroit News reports.
“Michigan voters chose experience in the gubernatorial race, an about face two years after helping elect President Trump and eight years after picking term-limited Gov. Rick Snyder, neither of whom had held political office.”
“Whitmer, who spent 14 years in the state Legislature, held off a late push by former Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed, a favorite of the progressive left, and Ann Arbor Entrepreneur Shri Thanedar.”
President Trump’s small dinner for business leaders tonight included “an unusual type of guest for a president who is known to hold grudges: People who have publicly distanced themselves from Trump,” CNBC reports.
“Specifically, five CEOs of major U.S. companies, who all publicly dissolved their ties to the Trump White House nearly a year ago this week. The break was prompted by Trump’s public insistence that both protesters and white nationalists were to blame for a deadly white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, V.A. on August 12.”
“Vladimir Putin presented President Trump with a series of requests during their private meeting in Helsinki last month, including new talks on controlling nuclear arms and prohibiting weapons in space,” according to a Russian document obtained by Politico.
“A page of proposed topics for negotiation, not previously made public, offers new insights into the substance of the July 16 dialogue that even Trump’s top advisers have said they were not privy to at the time. Putin shared the contents of the document with Trump during their two-hour conversation.”
ProPublica: “Last February, shortly after Peter O’Rourke became chief of staff for the Department of Veterans Affairs, he received an email from Bruce Moskowitz with his input on a new mental health initiative for the VA… O’Rourke treated the email as an order, but Moskowitz is not his boss. In fact, he is not even a government official. Moskowitz is a Palm Beach doctor who helps wealthy people obtain high-service ‘concierge’ medical care.”
“More to the point, he is one-third of an informal council that is exerting sweeping influence on the VA from Mar-a-Lago, President Trump’s private club in Palm Beach, Florida. The troika is led by Ike Perlmutter, the reclusive chairman of Marvel Entertainment, who is a longtime acquaintance of President Trump’s. The third member is a lawyer named Marc Sherman. None of them has ever served in the U.S. military or government.”
There are primaries in four states — Kansas, Missouri, Michigan and Washington — and a special election in Ohio tonight.
Here are the poll closing times with links to follow the results:
Nate Silver is putting the finishing touches on his 2018 midterm election model but does’t want to say much about it yet.
“My guess, though, is that it will be pretty good for Democrats, based on factors like district-by-district polls and fundraising data, and the fact that Democrats are nominating viable candidates in almost every competitive district whereas Republicans have a lot of retirements or places where they didn’t put up a great nominee. Put another way, the overall constellation of indicators looks better for Democrats than ‘just’ the generic ballot, and the House model uses a broad constellation of indicators instead of focusing on just one or two. But my guess could be wrong — sometimes my model surprises me — so I’ll know more in a few days.”
ABC News: “No matter the outcome of today’s GOP primary for Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, Ron Estes will win. The only question is, which one?”
“Republican Ron Estes is faced with an unlikely challenger: Ron Estes, a first time candidate… The incumbent will appear on the ballot as Rep. Ron Estes, alongside opponent Ron M. Estes. The congressman’s campaign staff hope voters can tell the difference.”
Out next month: How Fascism Works: The Politics of Us and Them by Jason Stanley.
“A Yale philosopher identifies the ten pillars of fascist politics, and charts their horrifying rise and deep history.”
Washington Post: “The most jarring testimony Tuesday came when Paul Manafort’s lawyer Kevin Downing got his turn to question Gates. ‘There was another Richard Gates, isn’t that right? A secret Richard Gates?’ Downing asked.”
“Gates, who seemed to immediately understand the lawyer’s hint, began speaking in a quiet, strained voice, saying that about 10 years ago, he had ‘another relationship’ — an extramarital affair.”
“Asked if that affair had taken place in London, Gates said it had occurred there and other places. For around two months, Gates said, he had kept a separate apartment in London. Under questioning, he admitted he had also flown first class and stayed in luxury hotels as part of that relationship.”
“Gates also testified that he had used money embezzled from Manafort to help fund his relationship.”
“How in the world could he ever cooperate and sit down with Mueller for an interview knowing that if you tell one lie to Bob Mueller, he will move to file charges?”
— Fox News host Dagen McDowell, on Fox News, on why President Trump shouldn’t agree to an interview with the special counsel.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said that he has told President Trump that ending the special counsel investigation of Robert Mueller would undermine GOP chances in November, Roll Call reports.
Said Graham, who played golf with Trump over the weekend: “He must have mentioned that about 20 times.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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