Nate Silver is putting the finishing touches on his 2018 midterm election model but does’t want to say much about it yet.
“My guess, though, is that it will be pretty good for Democrats, based on factors like district-by-district polls and fundraising data, and the fact that Democrats are nominating viable candidates in almost every competitive district whereas Republicans have a lot of retirements or places where they didn’t put up a great nominee. Put another way, the overall constellation of indicators looks better for Democrats than ‘just’ the generic ballot, and the House model uses a broad constellation of indicators instead of focusing on just one or two. But my guess could be wrong — sometimes my model surprises me — so I’ll know more in a few days.”