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Republicans Don’t Want 2020 to Be Referendum on Trump

February 14, 2019 at 9:02 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

James Hohmann: “President Trump will struggle to get reelected if the 2020 campaign is purely a referendum on his own performance, but elections typically become choices between two flawed candidates and their visions.”

“Republicans are banking on this, and Trump is doing everything possible – more than a year before we learn the identity of the presumptive Democratic nominee – to paint an apocalyptic picture of what would happen if he loses.”

“Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) won’t be on the ballot next year anywhere but the Bronx and Queens, but you wouldn’t know that from listening to GOP messaging. Republicans have gleefully elevated her into the avatar of the opposition, and her botched rollout of the Green New Deal resolution has given them fodder for over-the-top attacks that foreshadow how the next 21 months will likely play out.”

The Hill: “In addition to the vote after next week’s recess on the star freshman’s climate change plan, they say the Senate could find itself considering Ocasio-Cortez’s call for a 70 percent marginal tax rate on the nation’s highest income earners, providing ‘Medicare for all’ and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).”

Will Clarence Thomas Retire This Summer?

February 14, 2019 at 8:53 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jeffrey Toobin: “It’s true that Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader, would likely violate his Merrick Garland rule and try to push through a nominee in 2020, an election year, but 2019 would be much easier to navigate. So, many conservatives are asking, why shouldn’t Thomas leave now?”

“It seems that the President may have had the same thought. Trump has shown unusual solicitude for Justice Thomas and his wife, Ginni, a hard-right political activist. The President and the First Lady had the Thomases to dinner, and then Trump welcomed Ginni and some of her movement colleagues to the White House for an hour-long discussion.”

“Trump rarely engages in this kind of cultivation, and it’s reasonable to speculate that he’s trying to persuade the Justice that his seat would be in good hands if he decided to leave.”

All Pain, No Gain

February 14, 2019 at 8:42 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “So we went from Democrats once offering $25 billion for a border wall in exchange for protection for DACA recipients … to Dem leaders offering Trump $1.3 billion for border fencing … to a floated compromise of $2.5 billion during the shutdown … to a final deal of $1.375 billion for fencing.”

“For all the (valid) grief that Barack Obama got for his negotiating skills, how is this not substantially worse?”

“As a real-estate negotiator, Trump would apply maximum pressure to wear down the opposition. That tactic works when the stakes are low. But when the stakes are high – and the other side has almost the same power in the negotiations – it doesn’t work as well.”

“When it comes to this fight over the border wall/fencing/barriers, Trump lost. And he lost badly.”

New York Times: “In pursuit of a wall, President Trump ran into one.”


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Worried Texas Republicans Call for More National Help

February 14, 2019 at 8:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Texas Republicans have long coasted to re-election while ignoring their Democratic opponents. Not anymore,” the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.

“For 2020, GOP incumbents in what has historically been one of the most solidly red states in the union are plotting offense-driven campaigns they hope will insulate them even if the party brand takes a nosedive.”

“Strategists and party operatives interviewed by the Star-Telegram say the approach comes after a number of long-serving Republicans notched closer-than-expected victories in 2018, while their party lost ground in the suburbs. Even popular lawmakers aren’t safe if Texas voters continue to move away from the GOP in the Donald Trump era, the strategists said. So they are aiming to more aggressively drive attention to their opponents instead.”

McCabe Ordered Obstruction of Justice Probe Into Trump

February 14, 2019 at 7:57 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Soon after speaking to President Trump about the firing of his boss James Comey, Andrew McCabe, who became the bureau’s acting director, began obstruction of justice and counterintelligence investigations involving the president and his ties to Russia. In his first television interview since his own firing, McCabe tells 60 Minutes he wanted those inquiries to be documented and underway so they would be difficult to quash without raising scrutiny.”

Said McCabe: “I was very concerned that I was able to put the Russia case on absolutely solid ground, in an indelible fashion. That were I removed quickly, or reassigned or fired, that the case could not be closed or vanish in the night without a trace.”

The Atlantic runs an excerpt from McCabe’s new book, The Threat.

DNC Will Announce Debate Qualifications This Week

February 14, 2019 at 7:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

DNC Chairman Tom Perez says he’ll announce details of the first two presidential primary debates by the end of the week, the AP reports.

“Perez says he plans to include a grassroots fundraising metric as part of the qualifying threshold. He wants that to make the debate more inclusive than just using polling.”

“The first two debates are slated for June and July. They’ll be the first two of six debates in 2019, with at least six more to follow in 2020.”

Will Shunning Big Money Hurt Democrats?

February 14, 2019 at 7:09 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Reuters: “The Democratic candidates are expected to push one another to show their commitment to getting big money out of politics, following the lead of Democrats who helped the party retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives from Trump’s fellow Republicans in last year’s congressional elections.”

“Many Democrats have decried the influence of money from corporations and wealthy individuals on elections. But some strategists worry that the candidates could go too far and hamper the party’s chances in the November 2020 general election by giving a financial edge to the Republicans.”

“All of the Democrats who have launched a 2020 campaign or are formally considering a run have sworn off accepting corporate PAC money, campaign contributions that are pooled by corporate fundraising committees.”

Trump Campaign Focuses on Three Possible Challengers

February 14, 2019 at 6:41 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Donald Trump’s political advisers are homing in on three declared Democratic candidates who they believe are the most viable at this early stage of the campaign.”

“The reelection campaign has begun compiling opposition research on Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker and is eyeing opportunities to attack them. The effort began over the weekend when the Trump campaign sent out a news release ahead of Warren’s launch criticizing her past claims of Native American heritage.

A Punishing Defeat for Trump

February 14, 2019 at 6:36 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “As he inched closer to reluctantly accepting a bipartisan spending compromise without the money he demanded for his border wall, Mr. Trump offered no acknowledgment on Wednesday that his pressure tactics had failed even as aides sought to minimize the damage by tamping down criticism on the right.”

“One call was made to Lou Dobbs, a favorite of Mr. Trump’s whose Fox Business Network show he often tries to catch live. Another was placed to Sean Hannity, the Fox host who regularly talks with the president. The message: Mr. Trump deserved support because he still forced concessions that he would never have gotten without a five-week partial government shutdown.”

“Even so, it was arguably the most punishing defeat Mr. Trump has experienced as president, and it left the White House scrounging for other ways to pay for a wall on the southwestern border and rethinking its approach to a Congress now partly controlled by Democrats. Mr. Trump’s inability to reach a satisfying deal despite the negotiating experience he regularly touted on the campaign trail suggested that any aspirations of collaboration across party lines may be even more elusive than he had imagined.”

Debt Limit Vote Looms

February 14, 2019 at 6:32 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “The debt limit comes up at the beginning of March, and if you thought government funding was a potent legislative inflection point, the debt cap is far more dangerous. Trump has not played debt-limit chicken yet. But with Republicans in the House minority, and Democrats only now getting accustomed to the levers of power, who knows what might happen?

Justice Department Probes Leak of Cohen Bank Records

February 14, 2019 at 6:25 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Justice Department is investigating the leak last year of confidential reports about Michael Cohen’s personal bank records which led to revelations that the former Donald Trump lawyer was profiting by selling his access to the White House,” CNN reports.

“Prosecutors with the U.S. attorney’s office in the Northern District of California are leading the criminal investigation, one of the people said, and criminal charges in the case could be announced soon.”

Trump Guts Task Forces Protecting Elections

February 13, 2019 at 10:55 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Daily Beast: “Two teams of federal officials assembled to fight foreign election interference are being dramatically downsized, according to three current and former Department of Homeland Security officials. And now, those sources say they fear the department won’t prepare adequately for election threats in 2020.”

“One of the task forces is now half the size it was a few months ago… and there’s no indication that DHS senior political leadership will staff it up or sustain it. Instead, there are concerns it will completely wither away. The other task force also shrunk significantly shortly after the midterms… and before its members produced a thorough assessment of what happened during the 2018 elections.”

Mueller Just Caught 3rd Trump Aide Lying About Russians

February 13, 2019 at 9:12 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “We don’t know whether special counsel Robert Mueller has found evidence of collusion or conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russia. But for the third time, he has proved a Trump aide lied about contacts with Russians.”

“A judge on Wednesday voided former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort’s cooperation deal with the government, agreeing with Mueller’s team that he lied about three matters.”

“Previously, former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying about his contacts with the Russia ambassador… Michael Cohen also pleaded guilty to lying about contact with the Kremlin during his efforts during the 2016 campaign to secure a Trump Tower in Russia.”

Kansas Lawmakers Push ‘Porn Filters’ for Phones

February 13, 2019 at 7:56 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Two bills introduced in the Kansas House on Wednesday generate funding for human trafficking programs by requiring all new internet-capable telephones or computers sold in the state to feature anti-pornography software and by mandating adult entertainment businesses charge a special admissions tax,” the Topeka Capital Journal reports.

O’Rourke Met with Schumer to Discuss Senate Bid

February 13, 2019 at 7:21 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) met with former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) last week to discuss a possible 2020 Senate campaign against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in 2020, Politico reports.

O’Rourke, who lost narrowly against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2018, “is considering running for president and hasn’t publicly discussed running again for Senate in 2020. But he also hasn’t ruled it out.”

Judge Says Manafort Lied to Mueller

February 13, 2019 at 6:56 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A federal judge ruled that Paul Manafort lied to prosecutors with special counsel Robert Mueller “about matters close to the heart of their investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election,” the Washington Post reports.

“The judge’s finding that Manafort, 69, breached his cooperation deal with prosecutors by lying after his guilty plea could add years to his prison sentence.”

“Manafort had denied intentionally lying after his plea deal, but U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson of the District found he lied in three of five areas alleged by prosecutors. She said she would factor in his deception on other topics at sentencing March 13.”

GOP Lawmaker Deployed to Southern Border

February 13, 2019 at 6:21 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) is being deployed to the southern border with an Air Force National Guard Unit, CNN reports.

“Prior to Kinzinger’s election to Congress, he served in the Air Force and was commissioned as a second lieutenant in November 2003. He served in Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom.”

“Whether members of Congress can serve in active duty has been a source of controversy in the past.”

Democrats Need to Watch Their Far Left

February 13, 2019 at 5:38 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Max Boot: “As I’ve traveled around, speaking about my book on how extremists hijacked the Republican Party, I have been hearing from Democrats who are worried that the same thing is happening to their party. They have good cause for concern. The Democrats, to be sure, are not nearly as far-left as Republicans are far-right. But they are moving to the left, with the number of Democrats who describe themselves as liberal having doubled from 25 percent in 1994 to 51 percent in 2018.”

“There is nothing wrong with being liberal — I’m a classical liberal myself — but there is an uber-progressive wing in the Democratic Party that is becoming more vocal and influential. It is, in many ways, the mirror image of the far-right populists who have taken over the GOP.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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