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Trump Adviser Acknowledges Climate Change Threat

March 1, 2019 at 3:32 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNN that he believes climate change could threaten economic growth.

“It’s a position that puts him at odds with the Trump administration and the President himself, who has openly questioned whether the climate is warming at all.”

Said Hassett: “It’s something people should take seriously and think about.”

Medicare for All Loses Momentum Among Democrats

March 1, 2019 at 3:30 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “Now, enthusiasm for the proposal is waning as supporters face pointed questions over how it would work—and how it would be paid for. As a result, more candidates are backing intermediate measures, including optional buy-ins to government-run coverage that are likely more attainable in the short term.”

“Net support for a single-payer health system among all registered voters … fell from about 30% in November 2018 to 12% in February.”

Inside the Chaotic Early Days of Trump’s Foreign Policy

March 1, 2019 at 2:50 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Two years into Trump’s tenure, current and former U.S. officials say they are worried about the long-term damage his administration is still doing to the way such critical decisions are made — with dangerous consequences that are not always easy to perceive. They worry Trump’s presidency has poisoned the relationship between career government staffers and political appointees, threatening the ability of a future president to make decisions based on nonpartisan expertise.”

“In a particularly telling example, one former NSC staffer recalled informing a Trump political appointee that the administration should re-think a proposed executive order because it could undercut efforts to protect human rights.”

Said the staffer: “This could make the president look really bad.”

The political appointee replied: “The president doesn’t care about the things you care about, and the sooner that you know about it, the better.”


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Can Democrats Keep Their House Majority?

March 1, 2019 at 2:26 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Wasserman: “Republicans will need to gain 18 seats to win back the majority (or 19 depending on the outcome of a new election in NC-09), and have no shortage of good-looking targets, at least on paper: there are now 31 Democrats sitting in districts carried by President Trump in 2016 and just three Republicans sitting in districts carried by Hillary Clinton.”

“But Democrats have history on their side: the House majority hasn’t flipped twice in a row since 1954 and hasn’t flipped during a presidential cycle since 1952. Democrats have gained House seats in five of the past six presidential elections (save for 2004, when Republicans drew a favorable new map in Texas) and in seven of the past eight presidential cycles, the net partisan seat shift in the House has been in the single digits.”

“It’s tough to see Republicans winning the House back unless President Trump’s approval rating is significantly higher than today’s 42 percent come 2020… It’s too early to offer a range of gains and losses, but Democrats begin the cycle with an edge – one they hope can sustain them until districts are redrawn in 2021.”

Why the Mueller Report Might Disappoint Everybody

March 1, 2019 at 1:18 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Renato Mariotti: “This is due in part to Trump’s successful disinformation crusade, which has worked to raise a nearly impossible and definitely illogical bar for Mueller to clear: proving ‘collusion’ and charging a grand criminal conspiracy involving the Trump campaign and the Russian government. But it is also due to Trump’s critics, who have responded to Trump’s ‘No collusion!’ mantra by shouting back, ‘Yes, collusion!'”

“The word collusion appears nowhere in the order authorizing Mueller’s investigation. There is not even a relevant crime called ‘collusion.’ What Mueller is tasked with is investigating ‘any links and/or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with’ the Trump campaign.”

“If ‘links and/or coordination’ also don’t sound like crimes, that’s because they aren’t. While Mueller is directed to charge and prosecute crimes he discovers, his is primarily a counterintelligence investigation — not a criminal one — the purpose of which is to identify threats to our national security, potentially including the President of the United States and his associates.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

March 1, 2019 at 1:10 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I think not. Hillary and I have fundamental differences.”

— Sen. Bernie Sanders, when asked on The View if he would ask Hillary Clinton for campaign advice.

Chapter 1: The Spit on the Ball

March 1, 2019 at 12:15 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

We’re excited to publish the first chapter of Spitball: The New Rules of Our Broken Politics. For background on the project, read our Introduction.

Just for members: Chapter 1: The Spit on the Ball

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Pence Warns of Democratic ‘Socialist’ Agenda

March 1, 2019 at 11:44 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Vice President Pence warned that “socialist” policies embraced by Democrats, including presidential candidates, risk throwing the country into the kind of economic free-fall and autocratic grip ravaging Venezuela, the Washington Post reports.

Said Pence: “Democrats openly advocate an economic system that has impoverished millions of people around the world. Under the guise of Medicare-for-all and a Green New Deal, Democrats are embracing the same tired economic theories that have impoverished nations and stifled the liberties of millions over the past century. That system is socialism.”

Cruz Says Lack of Border Wall Cost GOP the House

March 1, 2019 at 11:41 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) claimed that Republicans wouldn’t have lost the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections had Congress more aggressively pushed border wall funding earlier, adding that Democrats are only opposed to a barrier along the southern border because they “hate” President Trump, Politico reports.

Said Cruz: “If they had taken that advice, if we had had that fight, and you had seen Elizabeth Warren screaming on the Senate floor to stop it, Bernie Sanders pulling what little hair he has out of his head. In September, October, and it culminated with Republicans standing together funding and building the wall. I don’t think we would have lost the House of Representatives.”

Warmbier Parents Respond to Trump’s Defense of Kim

March 1, 2019 at 11:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The parents of Otto Warmbier, the American college student who died after being detained for 17 months in North Korea, on Friday directly blamed leader Kim Jong Un for their son’s death a day after President Trump said he believed Kim’s account that he was not responsible,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Fred and Cindy Warmbier: “We have been respectful during this summit process. Now we must speak out. Kim and his evil regime are responsible for the death of our son Otto. Kim and his evil regime are responsible for unimaginable cruelty and inhumanity. No excuse or lavish praise can change that.”

The Senate May Be the Big Story of 2020

March 1, 2019 at 11:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Charlie Cook: “At this early stage, President Trump looks more likely to lose than win reelection. So it is a decent bet that the GOP is less likely to score a net gain of 18 seats. Yet even if Democrats capture the White House while holding onto a House majority, just how much could they get done with Republicans still holding a majority in the Senate? For that reason, I think the Senate may end up being a big story before all is said and done.”

“Behind the scenes, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is moving heaven and earth to put the Senate in play. Republicans have 53 seats to 47 for Democrats, meaning that Democrats need a net gain of three seats to be in a majority if they win the White House; if they don’t, they would need to pick up four seats. Realistically, Democrats need to take at least four or five GOP-held seats, because by far the most vulnerable seat in the Senate up next year is the one held by Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama.”

How Americans View the Politics of Brands

March 1, 2019 at 10:58 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Axios: “Big Tech companies, including Facebook, Google, Apple and Amazon, are all seen as leaning more Democratic, along with sports-linked brands like Nike, the NBA, and the NFL — while banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citi, are all seen as more Republican, along with some of the biggest corporate names like Walmart, GM, and Delta.”

“People of both parties — Democrats at 38%, Republicans at 35% — are just about as likely to boycott brands over their social beliefs, but their targets skew similarly partisan.”

State Senator, Aide Switch Jobs In Michigan

March 1, 2019 at 10:29 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“It’s musical chairs this year in the Michigan Senate, where state Sen. Rick Outman (R) won election to replace his term-limited boss and then hired her on staff,” the Detroit News reports.

“Then-Sen. Judy Emmons (R) had hired Outman as a district liaison aide after he was termed out of the state House at the end of 2016. The Six Lakes Republican would have earned a $69,500 annual taxpayer-funded salary in 2018 but resigned part way through the year to run for the 33rd District seat Emmons was being term limited out of. Back in the Legislature and now making $71,685 a year as a state senator, Outman turned to Emmons, hiring the Sheridan Republican to his old job as a district liaison.”

How Mueller Could Add to Trump’s Electoral Woes

March 1, 2019 at 9:52 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Charlie Cook: “Trump won the presidency by carrying 30 states that total 306 electoral votes (though two electors cast their ballots for someone else). The election turned on Trump margins of seven-tenths of a point in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and two-tenths of a percent in Michigan. He lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton by a touch over 2 points, 46 to 48 percent. While no two elections have precisely the same dynamics, if 2 percentage points were not quite enough for Democrats to win the 270 electoral votes necessary for victory, let’s say that a Democrat needs to win the national vote by 3 points to be reasonably confident of a win. (Keep in mind that the last time there was as big a disparity in the popular and electoral votes was 140 years earlier, when Samuel Tilden won the popular vote while Rutherford B. Hayes prevailed in the Electoral College. But let’s just go with 3 points for this back-of-the-envelope analysis.)”

“Starting off with a base of 35 percent, Trump would need to win at least two-thirds of that 20 percent that is up for grabs in order to get within 3 points of a Democratic opponent and have any realistic chance of winning. That’s a pretty tall order and is likely to hinge on what extent that fifth of the electorate is suffering from Trump fatigue and whether Democrats nominate someone more appealing, or at least more acceptable than the incumbent. That is the group worth watching; those are the people that might be affected one way or another by the big events of the next 20 months—starting with Mueller.”

Quote of the Day

March 1, 2019 at 9:40 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The idea that we force someone to give up their liberty for the sake of the collective is not based on American values but rather, Communist.”

— Arizona state Rep. Kelly Townsend (R), quoted by the Arizona Republic, arguing against mandatory vaccinations. She signed her Facebook post “live free or die.”

Trump Says Cohen’s Book Contradicts His Testimony

March 1, 2019 at 9:28 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump sought to attack the credibility Friday of his former personal lawyer Michael Cohen by pointing to a book that he has reportedly written that depicts Trump far more favorably than did the scathing testimony he delivered to Congress this week,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Trump: “Book is exact opposite of his fake testimony, which now is a lie!”

He added: “Congress must demand the transcript of Michael Cohen’s new book, given to publishers a short time ago. Your heads will spin when you see the lies, misrepresentations and contradictions against his Thursday testimony. Like a different person! He is totally discredited!”

“The president also referenced a description of Cohen’s reported book as a ‘love letter to Trump.’ That echoed a characterization of a Cohen book proposal by journalist Liz Plank of Vox Media during a February 2018 appearance on MSNBC.”

Takeaways from a Failed Summit

March 1, 2019 at 9:25 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Richard Haass: “Things never should have reached this point. Summits at most are expected to negotiate the last 10% of a deal. The Hanoi summit appeared to have it backwards, requiring that the leaders negotiate 90% on the spot. The Hanoi summit showed the dangers of a president who over-personalizes diplomacy. Foreign policy is mostly about the details, not the chemistry.”

“By overplaying his hand, Kim may have saved the president from himself. If reports were right, the U.S. was prepared to agree to offer a degree of sanctions relief in exchange for North Korea dismantling one of its enrichment facilities. But North Korea could have done this, and still maintained or even expanded its ability to enrich uranium and produce bombs and missiles.”

“Although disappointed with the summit outcome and concerned about what comes next, U.S. allies in the region (above all, South Korea and Japan) will be relieved.”

Democrats Face a Dilemma on Impeachment

March 1, 2019 at 8:56 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “How do they reconcile their growing belief that President Trump has committed crimes — especially after Michael Cohen’s testimony on Wednesday — with their hesitation/reluctance to consider impeachment?”

“Yes, going down Impeachment Road is a political risk. (Hello, Newt Gingrich and congressional Republicans!) And yes, Democrats want to wait for Mueller.”

“But if you believe that what President Trump has done is way worse than Clinton ever did, aren’t you tolerating/normalizing this kind of behavior if you don’t consider impeachment ASAP?”

“But here’s something to chew on: Has the impeachment process already begun (with Cohen’s testimony, more hearings, Mueller on the way), but Democrats just aren’t calling it that?”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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