How Mueller Could Add to Trump’s Electoral Woes

Charlie Cook: “Trump won the presidency by carrying 30 states that total 306 electoral votes (though two electors cast their ballots for someone else). The election turned on Trump margins of seven-tenths of a point in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and two-tenths of a percent in Michigan. He lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton by a touch over 2 points, 46 to 48 percent. While no two elections have precisely the same dynamics, if 2 percentage points were not quite enough for Democrats to win the 270 electoral votes necessary for victory, let’s say that a Democrat needs to win the national vote by 3 points to be reasonably confident of a win. (Keep in mind that the last time there was as big a disparity in the popular and electoral votes was 140 years earlier, when Samuel Tilden won the popular vote while Rutherford B. Hayes prevailed in the Electoral College. But let’s just go with 3 points for this back-of-the-envelope analysis.)”

“Starting off with a base of 35 percent, Trump would need to win at least two-thirds of that 20 percent that is up for grabs in order to get within 3 points of a Democratic opponent and have any realistic chance of winning. That’s a pretty tall order and is likely to hinge on what extent that fifth of the electorate is suffering from Trump fatigue and whether Democrats nominate someone more appealing, or at least more acceptable than the incumbent. That is the group worth watching; those are the people that might be affected one way or another by the big events of the next 20 months—starting with Mueller.”