“Democrats in Kansas who have had to sit on the political sidelines for the better part of a decade are hoping for a blue wave on Election Day that could help them break the Republican grip on power and are optimistic about their chances in several races, including the one for governor,” the AP reports.
Nation Prepares to Deliver Verdict on Trump
“The tumultuous 2018 midterm campaign, shaped by conflicts over race and identity and punctuated by tragedy, barreled through its final weekend as voters prepared to deliver a verdict on the first half of President Trump’s term, with Republicans bracing for losses in the House and state capitals but hopeful they would prevail in Senate races in areas where Mr. Trump is popular,” the New York Times reports.
“The president was set to storm across two states Saturday, two Sunday and three Monday in an effort to pick off Senate seats in Indiana, Florida and a handful of other battlegrounds where Republicans hope to add to their one-seat majority in the chamber. Democrats and liberal activists, galvanized by opposition to Mr. Trump, gathered Saturday to knock on doors and make turnout calls from Pennsylvania to Illinois to Washington to try to erase the G.O.P.’s 23-seat House majority.”
“The run-up to the election, widely seen as a referendum on Mr. Trump’s divisive persona and hard-line policy agenda, has revealed deep strains in the president’s political coalition and left him confined to campaign in a narrow band of conservative communities.”
GOP Super PAC Rushes to Save Don Young
A super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership is mounting a surprise final-weekend effort to save Rep. Don Young (R-AK) from defeat on Tuesday, Politico reports.
“The move underscores just how far Republicans are being pressed to defend red turf. Young has held his at-large seat since 1973, and President Trump won Alaska in 2016 by nearly 15 percentage points. But this week, a poll showed Young leading his Democratic opponent, public education advocate Alyse Galvin, by a single point.”
Quote of the Day
“It could happen, it could happen. We’re doing very well, and we’re doing really well in the Senate. But, could happen. And you know what you do? My whole life. You know what I say? Don’t worry about it, I’ll just figure it out. Does that make sense? I’ll just figure it out.”
— President Trump, quoted by the Washington Post, on the Democrats possibly taking control of the House of Representatives.
New Jersey Democrats Sound the Alarms
“New Jersey Democrats are growing increasingly worried that Sen. Bob Menendez could lose his seat next week in an outcome that would undercut the party’s effort to take back the Senate,” Politico reports.
“Democratic strategists working on races across the state said in interviews that they have seen a remarkable decline in support for Menendez as his Republican opponent — former pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin — poured $36 million of his own wealth into his campaign.”
Trump Admits Democrats Could Take House
President Trump admitted at a campaign rally that it’s possible that the Democrats win the House this midterm election, Axios reports.
Said Trump: “It’ll be bad for the country, the Democrats. And it could happen. Could happen.”
Where Things Stand In the Race for House
New York Times: “A consensus is emerging among Democratic and Republican strategists — based on public and private polling, early voting and likely turnout — that Democrats are on track to pick up about 35 seats in the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s elections. Republicans now have a 23-seat House majority.”
“There’s anxiety about that number on both sides. Democrats don’t want expectations rising for a massive wave which many in the party still doubt is coming. And Republicans don’t want a mood of despair to set in when they believe there’s still a chance they could hang on.”
“But the number does reflect the reality of polls in suburban districts as well as the tenacity of some Republicans in exurban districts, who would have to lose in order for Democrats to win more than 40 seats.”
Trump Upends Republican Messaging
“In normal political times, a glowing report on the nation’s economy just before Election Day would be a gift to the party in power and a uniform talking point for its candidates. But entering the final weekend before Tuesday’s midterm vote, President Trump’s blistering message of nativist fear has become the dominant theme of the campaign’s last days, threatening to overshadow the good economic news,” the New York Times reports.
“This is a political bind Republicans did not envision. They spent the final months of 2017 working on a package of sweeping tax cuts they hoped could be the centerpiece of their 2018 campaign message, buttressed by a soaring stock market and a low unemployment rate. And they got what they wanted, passing a $1.5 trillion tax bill last December.”
“A new jobs report released Friday highlighted the continued strength of the economy, as employers added about 250,000 jobs in October while the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent, a nearly 50-year low.”
“But Mr. Trump, again, has upended the traditional political playbook.”
Supreme Court Won’t Block Climate Lawsuit
“The Supreme Court on Friday night refused to halt a novel lawsuit filed by young Americans that attempts to force the federal government to take action on climate change, turning down a request from the Trump administration to stop it before trial,” the Washington Post reports.
“The suit, filed in 2015 by 21 young people who argue that the failure of government leaders to combat climate change violates their constitutional right to a clean environment, is before a federal judge in Oregon. It had been delayed while the Supreme Court considered the emergency request from the government.”
What Happened to Lindsey Graham?
“Sen. Lindsey Graham’s bipartisan overtures — on immigration, foreign policy, even investigations of President Trump — once made him a darling of Democrats, a Republican dealmaker to be wooed to the center,” the New York Times reports.
“But when the South Carolina Republican turned up in this St. Louis suburb to campaign against a Democratic colleague, Claire McCaskill, the crowd of Trump-loving women and red-hatted men practically swooned, bathing in the reflected glow of the president they adore — who now adores Lindsey Graham.”
“Mr. Graham, crisscrossing the country to turn out the Republican vote against the centrist Democratic senators who were once his natural allies, lapped it up. He has been basking in the exaltation of Trump backers ever since his lacerating defense of Justice Brett Kavanaugh. His own transformation from Trump-basher to Trump defender seems complete.”
Supreme Court Allows Census Trial to Go Forward
“The Supreme Court is allowing a trial over the decision to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census to go forward over the Trump administration’s objection,” Politico reports.
“More than a dozen states and big cities, among others, have sued over Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’ decision to add a citizenship question to the census for the first time since 1950.”
“The lawsuits argue that Ross acted improperly and that the question will discourage immigrants from participating, diluting political representation and federal dollars for states that tend to vote Democratic.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“The tax cut is something I talk about, but I don’t get standing ovations or anything like that. I don’t get booed, either. It’s probably not resonated real well with the average voter. But again, I talk about it.”
— Rep. James Comer (R-KY), quoted by the Washington Post.
An Energized Obama Now Calls Out Trump
New York Times: “For most of the last two years, he stewed about it in private, only occasionally speaking out. But as he hit the campaign trail this fall, Mr. Obama has vented his exasperation loud and often, assailing his successor in a sharper, more systematic way arguably than any former president has done in three-quarters of a century.”
“Although some admirers believe he remains too restrained in an era of Trumpian bombast, Mr. Obama has excoriated the incumbent for ‘lying’ and ‘fear-mongering’ and pulling ‘a political stunt’ by sending troops to the border. As he opened a final weekend of campaigning before Tuesday’s midterm elections, Mr. Obama has re-emerged as the Democrats’ most prominent face, pitting president versus president over the future of the country.”
Senate Intelligence Investigates NRA Ties to Russia
“The Senate intelligence committee has asked the National Rifle Association to provide documents on its connections to Russia—including documents related to a 2015 trip some of its top leaders made to Moscow,” the Daily Beast reports.
“The NRA’s Russia connections have drawn growing public scrutiny after a key figure in Russian outreach to the powerful gun lobby, Maria Butina, was indicted in July on charges of being an undeclared Russian operative connected to the country’s intelligence apparatus. Butina sought to use guns as a lever to tilt the Republican Party in a pro-Kremlin direction, creating a political firestorm for the NRA in the wake of her arrest. The intelligence committee’s document request is just one part of the aftermath.”
Dead Heat for Senate In Tennessee
A new East Tennessee State University poll finds Marsha Blackburn (R) and Phil Bredesen (D) deadlocked in the race for U.S. Senate, 44% to 44%.
Twitter Deletes Accounts That Discouraged Voting
“Twitter deleted more than 10,000 automated accounts posting messages that discouraged people from voting in Tuesday’s election and wrongly appeared to be from Democrats, after the party flagged the misleading tweets to the social media company,” Reuters reports.
A Remarkably Stable Race for Control of the House
“Despite the onslaught of major news events, the Monmouth University Poll finds the race for control of the House of Representatives does not look much different in October than it did over the summer. Aggregated analysis of previously released polls in seven competitive districts finds that the underlying dynamics in this race have not shifted all that much, but some groups are more fluid than others. The polling confirms that key voting blocs for Democrats continue to be white women with a college degree as well as women of color. For Republicans, their key bloc is white men who did not graduate college.”
“But the polling also points to two important variables that are driving uncertainty about Tuesday’s outcome: how many ‘new’ midterm voters will show up and how will non-white men, particularly Latinos, divide their support.”
Michael Cohen Says Trump Often Used Racist Language
Vanity Fair: “During our conversation, Cohen recalled a discussion at Trump Tower, following the then-candidate’s return from a campaign rally during the 2016 election cycle. Cohen had watched the rally on TV and noticed that the crowd was largely Caucasian. He offered this observation to his boss. “I told Trump that the rally looked vanilla on television. Trump responded, ‘That’s because black people are too stupid to vote for me.’”
”This conversation, he noted, was reminiscent of an exchange that the two men had engaged in years earlier, after Nelson Mandela’s death. “Trump said to me, ‘Name one country run by a black person that’s not a shithole,’ and then he added, ‘Name one city,’” Cohen recalled, a statement that echoed the president’s alleged comments about African nations earlier this year.”
