A Remarkably Stable Race for Control of the House

“Despite the onslaught of major news events, the Monmouth University Poll finds the race for control of the House of Representatives does not look much different in October than it did over the summer. Aggregated analysis of previously released polls in seven competitive districts finds that the underlying dynamics in this race have not shifted all that much, but some groups are more fluid than others. The polling confirms that key voting blocs for Democrats continue to be white women with a college degree as well as women of color. For Republicans, their key bloc is white men who did not graduate college.”

“But the polling also points to two important variables that are driving uncertainty about Tuesday’s outcome: how many ‘new’ midterm voters will show up and how will non-white men, particularly Latinos, divide their support.”