New York Times: “Nevada polls recently have shown Dean Heller and the Democratic nominee, Rep. Jacky Rosen, trading off in the lead; Arizona polls have shown a neck-and-neck race between the Democrat, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, and the Republican, Rep. Martha McSally. The mere fact that the Republican Senate candidates haven’t put away the race in those two states has been enough to lead some Democrats to think that Tuesday’s election could lead to a very late night, with the East Coast waiting for the results out West to see who controls the Senate.”

FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 19% chance of winning control of the Senate.

The Atlantic: “Whatever happens on Tuesday, there’s not much Democrats can do to assume control in Washington. They’re running as a check on Donald Trump’s presidency, playing defense, positioning themselves for the long term, at best. Take the House, and even the Senate, and it’s still about playing to a stalemate.”

“But if results break in their favor on Tuesday, Democrats could take control of state governments that have been in Republican control since 2010 or longer. That year, the GOP picked up six governor seats in what was considered a wave of its own. Democrats are expected to pick up at least that many across the country this year.”

“The result would rework all sorts of state policy, provide a massive injection of talent to the Democratic bench, force pundits to think anew about what the country wants, and through changes to gerrymandering, reshape the next decade in terms of who gets elected to state legislatures and the House.”

Christie Aschwanden: “A 2006 study looking at gubernatorial elections in the U.S. between 1990 and 2005 found that voter turnout increased when the polls were close. Interestingly, people seemed to overestimate the probability of casting a pivotal vote when their candidate had a slight lead. (More evidence that people often misunderstand probabilities.)”

A new Gallup poll finds that Democrats hold an 11-point lead over Republicans in House races among likely voters, 54% to 43%.

Nate Silver: “We’ve frozen our forecasts, the final model runs are whirring away now. And we’ve also frozen our generic ballot average. It wound up at D+8.7. That’s not a good number for Republicans. The Democratic lead ticked up from about 8 percentage points to 9-ish on the last set of polls we entered before freezing everything.”

“By late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, officials from both parties say we should know whether or not the Democrats have won the House. Until then, everyone is on edge — and the tension is only going to get worse through the long election night,” Mike Allen reports.

“Democrats remain ‘cautiously optimistic,’ one strategist told me, especially ‘after living through 2014 and 2016’ when Democrats had high hopes but suffered major losses. President Trump is sounding the alarm by disputing CNN polls and warning of potential illegal voting.”

Said one national Republican operative: “It’s going to be a bad night in the House.”

Gallup: “More than eight in 10 Democrats and Democratic leaners (81%) say they are very or somewhat worried about what will happen if Republicans maintain control of one or both houses of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections.”

“Alternatively, 66% of Republicans and Republican leaners say they are very or somewhat worried about what will happen if Democrats win one or both houses of Congress.”

First Read: “President Trump and GOP strategists made it all about that base; just see Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh at last night’s rally with Trump in Missouri. But Democrats — especially in the Senate races in red/purples states like Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Montana and Tennessee — focused their messages on the middle of the electorate.”

“Maybe the best example of this base-versus-middle divide is the 50-50 Senate race in Arizona between Democrat Kyrsten Sinema (whose message was aimed at the middle) and Republican Martha McSally (who was playing more to the Trump base in this traditional GOP state).”

“Be sure to see how independents break in Arizona and nationally. If Democrats are winning them by more than 10 points — our NBC/Marist poll of Arizona had Sinema up more than 20 points among indies — it’s hard to see how they aren’t going to win across the country.”

“One constant of Donald Trump’s ascent to the presidency and his two years in power is how behavior that would be not just risky but downright stupid for any normal politician ends up working smartly for him,” Politico reports.

“This is the essence of the Trump Mystique — a three-year record in which he regularly demonstrated that many of the normal precedents, patterns and truisms of American politics simply do not apply to him. This mystique — Is it real or illusion? Is his patented sorcery still working? — is among the big questions being tested in Tuesday’s elections.”

“Trump’s own decisions over the past month have put the issue — whether Trump has defied political gravity or merely delayed its impact — in even sharper relief than it would have been anyway.”

From our friends at the Cook Political Report:

“Follow along on Election Night with this handy guide. Listed are all the 2018 races that we consider competitive or potentially competitive (races in the Likely D/R, Lean D/R and Toss Up columns) sorted by the time polls close (EST).”

The New York Times has a good hour-by-hour guide too.

Exclusive to Political Wire from Cornell University professors Peter K. Enns and Jonathon P. Schuldt:

We interviewed a nationally representative sample of 957 likely voters in early July and late October. Each survey asked likely voters how they planned to vote in the election for the U.S. House of Representatives. In that time, net support for Democrats increased from 8.5 to 10.8%. Considering these are the very same individuals, this represents a substantial Democratic gain. 

But Newly Engaged Voters Look Different. We also studied a special group. We randomly selected 136 respondents who said they were not likely to vote in our July survey but who were likely voters by October. Among this group, the Democratic advantage disappeared. But we must remember this is a small group, so there is a lot of uncertainty in this result. Also, those who only recently became engaged in the election constitute a small portion of total voters. In fact, when we combine both groups (likely voters from July and new likely voters), Democrats retain an 8.1% net advantage.

It Will Come Down to Turnout. These data highlight an overlooked x-factor on Election Day. Those who recently tuned into the election appear to have different voting preferences than those who’ve been engaged all along. The key question is which type of voters will turn out, and we all are part of the answer. Whatever your political preferences, make sure you vote!

About the survey: Data from Enns and Schuldt 2018 Midterm Election Study. The nationally representative survey of likely voters was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago. This panel survey was funded by Cornell’s Center for the Study of Inequality.

“After largely standing by President Donald Trump as he has led his party for the past two-plus years, some Republicans now worry that his campaign rhetoric has gone too far and will cost some GOP candidates their races and jobs in Tuesday’s midterm elections,” NBC News reports.

“Trump has spent the final stretch of this election season in some of the most conservative areas in the country, rallying his base of supporters by warning that Democrats will usher in an age of ‘socialism’ and ‘open borders’ if voters put them in charge of either chamber of Congress.”