Christie Aschwanden: “A 2006 study looking at gubernatorial elections in the U.S. between 1990 and 2005 found that voter turnout increased when the polls were close. Interestingly, people seemed to overestimate the probability of casting a pivotal vote when their candidate had a slight lead. (More evidence that people often misunderstand probabilities.)”
What Kind of Turnout Will We See Today?
Limited-time offer
Try Political Wire Free for 60 days
Members get Talking Points analysis, Trending News, the Polling Dashboard, the Trial Balloon podcast, new site features and no ads. Start your free trial


?Political Trivia
Eight moments in political history. Put them on a timeline.
Play →
Five senators. Three bills. Can you guess how they all voted?
Play →
Nine Justices. One case. How did they rule?
Play →
Do you have your finger on the pulse of America?
Play →
Four questions a day.
Play →
A new game every day.