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Ecuador Has Spent Millions Protecting Assange

May 15, 2018 at 1:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Ecuador bankrolled a multimillion-dollar spy operation to protect and support Julian Assange in its central London embassy, employing an international security company and undercover agents to monitor his visitors, embassy staff and even the British police,” according to documents seen by the Guardian.

“Over more than five years, Ecuador put at least $5m into a secret intelligence budget that protected the WikiLeaks founder while he had visits from Nigel Farage, members of European nationalist groups and individuals linked to the Kremlin.”

What the Polls Mean at This Point

May 15, 2018 at 1:11 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

With just under six months until the midterm elections and the primary season in full swing, we’re going to start seeing a lot of polls testing general election match ups.

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Ethics Lawyer Says Trump Violated Emoluments Clause

May 15, 2018 at 11:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Norm Eisen, the top ethics official under former President Obama, accused President Trump of violating the Constitution’s emoluments clause because of a Trump development project in Indonesia that will be backed by Chinese government loans, The Hill reports.

The South China Morning Post reports that $500 million in Chinese government loans will support construction of MNC Lido City, a billion-dollar resort and theme park project that will feature Trump-branded hotels and a golf course.


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Shitshow!

May 15, 2018 at 11:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Out next week: Shitshow!: The Country’s Collapsing and the Ratings Are Great by Charlie LeDuff.

The AP Plans to Replace Exit Polls

May 15, 2018 at 10:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Associated Press said that “it will begin conducting an elaborate election voter survey designed to replace the traditional in-person exit poll, which has been criticized in recent years for inaccuracy and failing to keep up with changes in how Americans vote,” the AP reports.

“The new AP VoteCast service, developed with NORC at the University of Chicago, uses a combination of online and telephone surveys conducted four days before Election Day and through the close of polls. In all, AP expects to conduct more than 85,000 interviews with voters for this year’s midterm election survey… That’s far more than the roughly 19,400 conducted by the exit poll in 2014… allowing for a deeper and more accurate understanding of the electorate.”

Bharara May Run as an Independent

May 15, 2018 at 10:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara is “weighing a run for the suddenly vacant spot of New York attorney general — possibly doing so as an independent, free of ties to Democrats and Republicans,” Bloomberg reports.

“Bharara’s name was floated as possible attorney general almost instantly after Eric Schneiderman quit as New York state’s top cop on May 7, following allegations of abuse by four women. Bharara, 49, served almost eight years as U.S. attorney in New York, where he spearheaded an historic crackdown on insider trading and targeted corruption in state government, before he was summarily fired by President Trump on March 11, 2017.”

Penn Won’t Talk About Trump

May 15, 2018 at 10:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Atlantic: “Penn’s silence on its most powerful alumnus stands in contrast with how other universities have related to their own presidential (or near-presidential) graduates. George W. Bush was invited to give Yale’s commencement address just months into his first term. And Columbia, the alma mater of Trump’s predecessor, features on its website a giddy post titled ‘Our Top 10 Obama Highlights.’ … And then there is Wellesley’s warm embrace of Hillary Clinton, class of 1969. She spoke at commencement last year, and a page on the school’s website is dedicated to her time at the school.”

“That it is Penn and not any other Ivy League school now navigating this terrain is additionally awkward—for Penn, perhaps more than its peers, has long had status anxiety.”

Even a Phone Ban Can’t Stop White House Leakers

May 15, 2018 at 10:26 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

CNN: “Despite active efforts to flush out administration leakers — including machines used to detect unauthorized cell phones in the West Wing — President Trump and his senior aides haven’t yet been able to stem the flow of damaging information.”

“The White House banned the use of personal cell phones in the West Wing in January. It was an idea first floated by chief of staff John Kelly when he replaced Reince Priebus last July, but one he didn’t implement until months into his tenure. Officials publicly maintained that the ban was because of national security reasons, but multiple staffers said privately that they were under the impression it was carried out in hopes of limiting leaks to reporters.”

“Kelly was agitated when a memo he wrote outlining the new policy quickly leaked to media outlets, a source familiar with his reaction said.”

A Glimmer of Hope for Republicans?

May 15, 2018 at 9:55 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Charlie Cook: “Over the past 90 days, the president’s approval ratings have ticked up to the low-to-mid 40s—still extremely low for elected incumbent presidents in their second year in office, but certainly better from where they had been… In the generic-ballot test, the GOP is now typically behind by mid-to-high single digits. As with Trump’s approval rating, Republicans are still in an alarming position on that front, but better than they were.”

“One thing to remember about midterm elections is that roughly a third fewer people vote in them than in presidential elections. The people who disproportionately participate in midterms are people who, as my mother used to say, “have their noses out of joint”—in this case angry, fearful, or merely unhappy. Republicans should be quite sure that those who dislike or disapprove of Trump will turn out in big numbers.”

Quote of the Day

May 15, 2018 at 9:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“It’s like playing with matches.”

— A “prolific leaker” in the White House, explaining to Jonathan Swan why he leaks.

Can Democrats Keep Up In Florida’s Senate Race?

May 15, 2018 at 8:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “Across the 2018 Senate landscape, the vulnerable red-state Senate Democrats are either outspending their GOP challengers over the TV and radio airwaves, or they’re keeping the disparity as close as possible. (That’s where it helps to be an incumbent, right?)”

“But there’s one huge exception — Florida, where Republican Rick Scott and the GOP are outspending Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) and the Democrats by nearly a 50-to-1 margin, $8.8 million to $185,000, according to ad-spending data from Advertising Analytics.”

“Scott’s personal wealth was always going to be a wild card for Republicans to play in this rough political environment for the GOP. It forces Democrats and Dem outside groups to spend heavily to keep Nelson competitive — it costs at least $2 million to $3 million PER WEEK to advertise statewide in Florida — which comes at the expense of other Democratic campaigns. That’s a significant advantage for Republicans, especially when so many Democrats (incumbents or challengers) are outraising Republicans in hard dollars.”

Trump Hopes to Add Two States In 2020

May 15, 2018 at 7:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Swan: “As President Trump’s campaign aides quietly launch his reelection campaign, they’re eyeing two states as possible pickups for 2020: Minnesota, where Trump came close in 2016 without even trying; and Colorado, where his hands-off approach to marijuana enforcement is a possible selling point.”

“The addition of those states is part of a plan that’s coming together in a basement suite at the Republican National Committee, where the Trump campaign has moved from Trump Tower. The campaign, now fewer than 10 people, eventually will number hundreds.”

Infamous Pennsylvania Republicans Feud Before Primary

May 15, 2018 at 7:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A disgraced former congressman and a Republican candidate despised by party leaders have been fighting a weekslong, behind-the-scenes battle ahead of Tuesday’s primary for an open House seat in western Pennsylvania,” Politico reports.

“Former Rep. Tim Murphy, who resigned last October amid allegations that he asked his mistress to get an abortion, has been working quietly to sink Rick Saccone’s bid for Congress. Saccone, who became a national Republican scapegoat after losing to Democrat Conor Lamb in the March special election to replace Murphy, is now running for the GOP nomination in a newly drawn, heavily Republican district that includes much of Murphy’s old turf.”

“The fight has gotten personal: Murphy has directed hundreds of thousands of dollars from his old campaign account to an outside group supporting Saccone’s GOP primary opponent, state Sen. Guy Reschenthaler. Murphy also sent around a cropped video clip of Saccone that he believed would damage him.”

Inside Trump’s ‘Big Data’ Strategy for 2020

May 15, 2018 at 7:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Swan: “Trump reelection campaign manager Brad Parscale starts with 18 million email addresses and phone numbers (‘hard contacts’) of likely Trump voters, and has a goal of doubling that that to 30 million to 40 million by Election Day 2020 — roughly half of the votes Trump needs. (He got 63 million in 2016.)”

“Parscale plans to spend $1 million per month for the rest of ’18 on digital prospecting, with hopes to increase that next year. The campaign says it has had great success recruiting Trump supporters with ads on AOL (an older, Trump-friendly demographic), Bing, Facebook, Google and conservative news sites.”

Greitens Admits to Using Secret Texting App

May 15, 2018 at 7:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R) “used an app that erases text messages to communicate with his taxpayer-funded staff, although he denies any suggestion that doing so violated Missouri’s open records laws,” the Kansas City Star reports.

Trump Puts Pence In a Corner

May 15, 2018 at 7:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump wasn’t planning to attend the recent NRA convention – that is, until he learned that Vice President Mike Pence would be giving the keynote address,” Politico reports.

“That led to a change of plans in the West Wing, according to two people familiar with the arrangement, and nearly a week after the NRA announced Pence would speak, the president was added to the schedule to speak moments after Pence.”

“It wasn’t the first time Trump has changed his plans to one-up the veep. It was originally Pence, not Trump, who planned to travel to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. But upon seeing who else would be attending, Trump decided to make the trip himself instead, bumping Pence off the schedule, according to a person familiar with the matter.”

Senate GOP Chides Trump Over McCain Treatment

May 14, 2018 at 8:39 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Senate Republicans are openly seething over the White House’s treatment of John McCain, casting a pall over the party ahead of a rare lunch with President Trump the caucus is hosting on Tuesday,” Politico reports.

“The White House’s refusal to apologize for an aide joking about the Arizona senator’s failing health is threatening to undermine what should be a feel-good moment for the caucus.”

McCaskill Has Small Lead In Missouri

May 14, 2018 at 7:35 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Missouri Scout poll finds Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) leading challenger Josh Hawley (R) 48% to 44%. That 4-point spread is just outside the poll’s margin for error.

The poll also shows President Trump with continued strong approval in Missouri, 50% to 44%.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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