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Exchange of the Day

November 14, 2018 at 9:44 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jenna Bush interviewed Michelle Obama on the Today Show and asked about the former First Lady’s relationship with her father, former President George W. Bush:

BUSH: He said, ‘Send her my love.’ And I thought, you know, it’s so interesting how people are so interested in y’all’s friendship. I mean that hug was, like, the hug that went around the world. I do love that picture.

OBAMA: That’s your dad. That’s, you — you know your dad. You know?

BUSH: Why do you think people are so hungry for that, though?

OBAMA: Because I think the political discourse, the way it’s shown in the media, is– it’s all the nasty parts of it. You know? Because I guess we’ve become a culture where the nasty sells. So people are just gonna keep feeding that. But the truth is much more complicated and complex than that. And I’d love if we as a country could get back to the place where we didn’t demonize people who disagreed with us. Because that’s essentially the difference between Republicans and Democrats. We’re all Americans. We all care about our family and our kids, and we’re trying to get ahead. We have different ideas about what’s the best way to get there. You know? But that doesn’t make me evil. And that doesn’t make him, you know, stupid.

BUSH: Yeah.

OBAMA: It’s just a disagreement and that’s how I feel about your father. You know? He’s a beautiful, funny, kind, sweet man and I don’t know that I agree with him on everything.

How Nancy Pelosi Could Get Around Her Opposition

November 14, 2018 at 9:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “By the way, for Pelosi, there are some ways around the current Dem opposition to her regaining the speakership. For one thing, some new and old members might vote against Pelosi in the closed-door caucus meeting on November 28 – where she needs only a simple majority from her own party – and still vote for her on the floor on January 3, when she needs a majority of ALL members to become speaker.”

“Also on January 3, Pelosi opponents could vote ‘present,’ reducing the magic number she needs to capture a majority.”

The Purpose of Mueller’s Probe Is Not Impeachment

November 14, 2018 at 8:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Chait: “The point is to establish legal accountability for the president. Well-functioning democracies don’t have criminal oligarchies running the country with legal impunity. The kind of deep systemic corruption Trump is implementing, in which establishing a political alliance with a ruling family is a key step in amassing and protecting wealth, depends on selective legal enforcement. More to the point, it requires business partners. Maybe Donald Trump can’t be hauled off to prison, but his partners can. And that prospect can scare off the collaborators Trump needs.”

“Second, and more to the point, even if Robert Mueller can’t kick Trump out of the White House directly and the Senate won’t, there’s a body of people who can: the 2020 electorate. And the Trump investigations are building a powerful case that will be brought to bear on that election.”


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Clinton Questions Fairness of Georgia’s Election

November 14, 2018 at 8:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Hillary Clinton said that Stacey Abrams (D) would already have won Georgia’s governor race if there had been a fair election, the Austin American-Statesman reports.

Said Clinton: “If she had a fair election, she already would have won.”

Palm Beach Voting Machines Overheat

November 14, 2018 at 8:13 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Palm Beach County elections supervisor says aging equipment has overheated, causing mismatched results in the recount of ballots in Florida’s U.S. Senate race,” the AP reports.

“The 11-year-old machines began having problems on Monday as early voting ballots were being counted. When the numbers were crunched on Tuesday, they didn’t match.”

Why Late Vote Counts Tend to Favor Democrats

November 14, 2018 at 7:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Monkey Cage: “There are two reasons the blue shift exists and has become more prominent. First, the 2002 Help America Vote Act required states to institute provisional ballots for voters with a disputed registration status when they went to vote. Because voters who cast a provisional vote are more likely to be young and members of a racial or ethnic minority group, provisional ballots are disproportionately Democratic.”

“Second, Democrats are slightly more likely to vote by mail than Republicans. This is probably  because Democratic campaigns are more likely to emphasize turning out supporters before Election Day than are Republican campaigns. Thus as these mail ballots are counted, the overall total will again lean Democratic.”

A Power Vacuum in the White House

November 14, 2018 at 7:49 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Daily Beast: “He was a stately general called in to replace the omnishambles with order. But since his first day as White House chief of staff, John Kelly’s grasp on power in Trumpworld has been tenuous.”

“Now, as Trump enters the back end of his first term in office, determined to shake up his team at the senior ranks and facing a Democratic-run House, Kelly’s grasp has been exposed as flimsier than ever. With the president mangling an overseas trip and infighting among White House staff nearing Civil War-like levels, the chief of staff appears to be more of a bystander to the chaos than a manager of it. No one, at this juncture, is particularly surprised.”

GOP Picks Another Cheney to Find a Winning Message

November 14, 2018 at 7:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“House Republican leaders must decide how much to embrace President Donald Trump going into the 2020 election — a dilemma that will fall most heavily to Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) as she joins the party’s upper echelon,” Bloomberg reports.

“The Wyoming congresswoman and daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney is poised to become the third-ranking House Republican in closed-door leadership elections to be held Wednesday. Her main task as House GOP conference chairwoman would be to craft a marketing strategy to help Republican lawmakers retake the House and propel Trump to a second term.”

Timing of Nielsen’s Departure Still Uncertain

November 14, 2018 at 7:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“For the longest time, the only person shielding Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen from Trump’s anger has been her friend and mentor — Chief of Staff John Kelly,” Axios reports.

“Sources close to Trump say he doesn’t think Nielsen is being aggressive enough at fulfilling his hardline immigration agenda. But more than that, Trump puts a lot of stock in personal chemistry. And once he’s decided he doesn’t have ‘chemistry’ with someone, it’s very hard for that person to come back from that.”

“Nielsen now lives in a land previously occupied by Jeff Sessions, H.R. McMaster and Rex Tillerson. Sources close to Trump say he appears to have made up his mind about getting rid of Nielsen. But senior staff don’t know who will replace her or what the timing of her removal will be.”

CNN Likely to Prevail In Lawsuit Against Trump

November 14, 2018 at 7:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump and press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders often have the upper hand over CNN in the White House briefing room. But CNN has likely now claimed the advantage by moving the battle to the courtroom,” Politico reports.

“First Amendment lawyers say courts have a history of defending access for journalists, and the White House’s shifting justifications won’t help it in the coming legal fight over the decision to revoke correspondent Jim Acosta’s press pass last week.”

Trump Meddles In House GOP Leadership Race

November 14, 2018 at 6:54 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“On the eve of Kevin McCarthy’s long-awaited defeat of his nemesis, Rep. Jim Jordan, President Trump is jumping into the fray to play peacemaker,” Politico reports.

“Trump has privately urged the House majority leader to strike a dealwith the conservative Freedom Caucus founder, who is challenging McCarthy for the minority leader post next Congress, multiple lawmakers and aides said. It remains unclear what exactly the deal would entail.”

“The discussions between the president and McCarthy about Jordan, which took place last week, set off a round of speculation among lawmakers inside the Capitol that Trump may try to push Jordan to become the top Republican lawmaker on the House Judiciary Committee, a panel expected to launch an array of Democratic investigations against the president — and possibly even an impeachment probe.”

Playbook: “The Freedom Caucus is all but dead at this point, and McCarthy is going to easily put away Jordan in this leadership race. But they are now viewing how McCarthy treats Jordan as a litmus test.”

Anti-Pelosi Democrats Claim They Have the Votes

November 13, 2018 at 11:03 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), “one of the leaders of a small Democratic contingent opposing Nancy Pelosi’s bid for speaker, said he is ‘100 percent confident’ the group has enough commitments to block the California Democrat from being elected speaker on the floor,” Roll Call reports.

“The anti-Pelosi group has been gathering signatures from new and returning members on a letter that calls for new Democratic leadership. It also notes that the signatories will not back Pelosi during the January floor vote for speaker.”

Graham Supports Bill to Protect Mueller

November 13, 2018 at 10:43 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said he supported a bill that would protect Special Counsel Robert Mueller from any politically motivated firings and would urge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to allow a vote on it, Reuters reports.

Denham Loses His House Seat

November 13, 2018 at 10:39 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Jeff Denham (R-CA) has become the latest California Republican to lose his seat, Politico reports.

“The Associated Press on Tuesday night declared Josh Harder the winner in the race in California’s 10th District in the state’s Central Valley east of San Jose. Harder, a former venture capitalist, had a lead of approximately 4,900 votes when the race was called.”

Staff Anger Spills Over at White House

November 13, 2018 at 10:09 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Bottled-up hostility in President Trump’s administration flowed to the surface Tuesday during a remarkable 12-hour period following an awkward midterm détente and tense trip to Paris over which the president is still seething.”

“White House aides and advisers have long anticipated an internal staff reckoning once the uneasy truce broke and the dust settled after the elections. But some conceded that the drumbeat of exits, the threat of subpoenas from the Russia probe and anticipated investigations by a newly empowered Democratic House — along with a raft of negative media attention in recent days — were taking a heavy toll on not only the president, but also on the aides and advisers’ thinning ranks.“

Trump’s Appointment of Matt Whitaker Is Backfiring

November 13, 2018 at 9:49 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “The appointment has drawn bipartisan criticism and led to questions about Whitaker’s qualifications and whether he would limit the investigation or bury its findings. The state of Maryland on Tuesday filed the first legal challenge seeking to overturn Whitaker’s appointment, while on Capitol Hill newly empowered House Democrats are already making plans to have the acting attorney general appear as one of their first witnesses when the next Congress launches in January.”

“The uproar over the appointment, which effectively removes Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein as Mueller’s primary supervisor, has put Whitaker in a difficult spot, trapped between setting off a political firestorm by clipping Mueller’s wings and angering a president intent on having him do just that.”

“Even Trump’s Justice Department is wavering about whether Whitaker will do the deed the president wanted him for.”

Mimi Walters Now Trails In Vote Count

November 13, 2018 at 9:08 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“After clinging for a week to a slim lead in her run for reelection, Republican Rep. Mimi Walters fell 261 votes behind her Democratic challenger, Katie Porter, as Orange County’s latest ballot count Tuesday underscored the increasingly bleak fortune of the California GOP,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

Inside Trump’s Paris Fury

November 13, 2018 at 9:05 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “During his 43-hour stay in Paris, Trump brooded over the Florida recounts and sulked over key races being called for Democrats in the midterm elections that he had claimed as a ‘big victory.’ He erupted at his staff over media coverage of his decision to skip a ceremony honoring the military sacrifice of World War I.”

“The president also was angry and resentful over French President Emmanuel Macron’s public rebuke of rising nationalism, which Trump considered a personal attack. And that was after his difficult meeting with Macron, where officials said little progress was made as Trump again brought up his frustrations over trade and Iran.”

“Meanwhile, Trump was plotting a shake-up in his administration.“

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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