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Democrats Could Win 40 Seats

November 9, 2018 at 10:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Democrats have won at least 33 seats, but they look poised to win closer to 40 — there are 13 races that are either not called or too close to call, and Democrats have a solid chance of winning seven of those,” Axios reports.

James Hohmann: “Democrats picked up more House seats than they have in any midterm election since 1974, three months after Richard Nixon’s resignation, and a dozen races still remain uncalled by the Associated Press. That’s all the more remarkable considering that the economy is booming, unemployment is historically low and wages are growing.”

Arrington Blames Her Defeat on Mark Sanford

November 9, 2018 at 9:43 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Eight hours after Katie Arrington (R) lost her South Carolina congressional race, she blamed her shocking defeat on Rep. Mark Sanford (R-SC), the outgoing Republican congressman she bested in the primary,” the Charleston Post and Courier reports.

Said Arrington: “We lost because Mark Sanford could not understand that this race was about the conservative movement — and not about him.”

Parties Go to War In Florida

November 9, 2018 at 9:40 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “We guess it’s only fitting — and expected — that Election Day 2018 is far from over, with drama and controversies over new vote counts and/or upcoming recounts in Arizona, Florida and Georgia.”

“But what is taking place in Florida is now war – after Republican Rick Scott’s lead in the Senate contest was reduced to just 15,000 votes. Scott, the state’s current governor, filed a lawsuit accusing Democrats of fraud and trying to steal the election. President Trump weighed in, tweeting: ‘Law Enforcement is looking into another big corruption scandal having to do with Election Fraud in #Broward and Palm Beach. Florida voted for Rick Scott!'”

“What happens when you have a 2000-like recount in our current Trump Era – not only in Florida, but also in Arizona and Georgia? Well, we’re about to find out. The following weeks in Florida could very well define the state over the next two years, and it’s likely to produce a result where half of the state won’t believe it’s legitimate.”


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Wisconsin Republicans Look at Limiting Governor’s Power

November 9, 2018 at 9:26 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: “The Republican plan to take power away from the incoming Democratic governor could include overhauling state boards and removing authority that Republican lawmakers handed to GOP Gov. Scott Walker (R) when he took office in 2011.”

“Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) said Thursday that Republicans are looking at giving incoming Gov. Tony Evers (D) less say in state rules that implement state laws. Eight years ago, Republicans handed Walker more power over those rules when he was first sworn in.”

How Kris Kobach Lost for Kansas Governor

November 9, 2018 at 8:47 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Kansas City Star: “Interviews with more than a dozen Republican strategists and officials paint a picture of a candidate who refused to listen to advice, was unwilling to put energy into fundraising and failed to set up a basic ‘get out the vote’ operation.”

“Kobach, the Kansas secretary of state, struggled to pay his campaign staff on time and at one point lacked a working phone system at his Johnson County campaign office, according to GOP sources familiar with the campaign. And people who offered to volunteer were never contacted.”

Sid one long-time GOP operative: “It was the most dysfunctional thing I’ve ever seen in my life.”

How Bill Nelson Could Win the Recount

November 9, 2018 at 8:40 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Times outlines Sen. Bill Nelson’s (D-FL) path to victory as the race heads to a recount. Nelson trails by just 21,888 votes out of 8.2 million.

  1. Not all the ballots have been counted yet in South Florida, a Democratic stronghold. As of Thursday morning, two voter-rich counties were still tabulating an unknown number of ballots.
  2. Undervote in Senate race in Broward County. In Broward County, 695,799 people turned in ballots. But only 665,688 voted in the Senate race. That’s a 30,000 difference, a remarkable disparity given the stakes in this race and the name-recognition of these officials. It’s a degree of undervote that is non-existent in the other statewide races on the ballot.
  3. Provisional ballots will break hard for Democrats. Voters who forgot identification or showed up at the wrong polling place cast a provisional ballot on Tuesday. In most counties, those ballots still need to be reviewed by the local canvassing board and counted toward the final tally.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Times notes the race for governor is also now in recount range.

Abrams Presses for a Runoff In Georgia

November 9, 2018 at 8:39 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stacey Abrams is not conceding Georgia’s governor’s race, “hopeful that a trove of provisional ballots and other votes not yet recorded could be enough to force the tight race into a runoff,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

“Her campaign unveiled a litigation team poised to take the fight to the courts as it continues a hunt for an additional 25,632 Abrams votes that will push the race into runoff territory.”

Brian Kemp’s (R) office “has said there are roughly 25,000 outstanding provisional and absentee ballots — making his lead virtually insurmountable — and on Thursday he released for the first time a detailed accounting of where each was cast.”

Minor Party Vote Was Lowest Since 1982

November 9, 2018 at 8:26 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ballot Access News: “Although the election returns for 2018 are far from complete, it is possible to know now that the minor party and independent vote for the top office in each state this year is only 2.8%. This is the lowest percentage since 1982, when it was only 1.8%. The highest percentage since World War II was 2010, when it was 5.4%.”

Why Democrats Aren’t More Excited About 2018 Results

November 9, 2018 at 8:18 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Amy Walter: “Democrats wanted this election to be about more than just winning the House or the Senate. They wanted 2018 to be a total rebuke of Trump. A wipe out of epic proportions all across the country. That didn’t happen. What we saw instead was more of a retrenchment. Red areas stayed red; blue areas stayed blue. The only real movement was in districts that were purple — districts that had voted for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or had narrowly supported Trump- tipped overwhelmingly to Democrats. As my colleague David Wasserman pointed out, Democrats didn’t flip any district that Trump had carried by 55 percent or more.”

“The other reason Democrats aren’t as fired up about the 2018 election is that it failed to deliver an obvious frontrunner for 2020.”

Michelle Obama Won’t Forgive Trump for ‘Birther’ Claims

November 9, 2018 at 7:25 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former first lady Michelle Obama said her her new book, Becoming, that she will “never forgive” Donald Trump for stoking far-right “birtherism” theories about then-President Obama during his campaign, the Washington Post reports.

Said Obama: “The whole thing was crazy and mean-spirited, of course, its underlying bigotry and xenophobia hardly concealed. But it was also dangerous, deliberately meant to stir up the wingnuts and kooks. What if someone with an unstable mind loaded a gun and drove to Washington? What if that person went looking for our girls? Donald Trump, with his loud and reckless innuendos, was putting my family’s safety at risk. And for this I’d never forgive him.”

Russian with Links to Manafort Under Scrutiny

November 9, 2018 at 7:24 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Guardian: “A Russian man who is said to have ties to Moscow’s intelligence services will be receiving renewed scrutiny from special counsel Robert Mueller’s inquiry into Russian 2016 election interference.”

“Mueller is investigating Konstantin Kilimnik with assistance from three Kilimnik associates, including Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, who mentored Kilimnik as a political operative for pro-Kremlin figures in Ukraine.”

Florida Prepares for Massive Recount

November 9, 2018 at 7:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Election officials, campaign operatives and lawyers across Florida are gearing up for massive recounts in large part due to a familiar problem: Broward County, which has been saddled with election controversies ever since the disputed 2000 presidential race.”

“All eyes are on that problematic South Florida county – Florida’s second largest and one of its most Democratic – as it lags nearly every other in the state in reporting ballot tallies. The county’s results could help decide the races for U.S. Senate, governor and agriculture commissioner, which are headed for recounts.”

Gillibrand Sounds Like She’s Running for President

November 9, 2018 at 7:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) gave her strongest public indication yet that she was contemplating a run for president in 2020, telling the late-night show host Stephen Colbert she would “give it a long, hard thought of consideration,” the New York Times reports.

Said Gillibrand: “I’ve seen the hatred and the division that President Trump has put out into our country, and it has called me to fight as hard as I possibly can to restore the moral compass of this country.”

Whitaker Already Under Intense Pressure

November 9, 2018 at 7:01 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Swan: “Matt Whitaker has been acting attorney general for just one full day but he’s already under extreme pressure.”

“President Trump, who shocked even some of his senior most staff with the hasty timing of his firing of Jeff Sessions, threw Whitaker into an immediate political and legal storm. The White House expected opposition from Democrats but the blowback is widening and now includes a growing body of conservative legal opinion.”

Scott Files Lawsuit In Florida Election

November 8, 2018 at 11:26 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republican Gov. Rick Scott, claiming south Florida election officials are fraudulently mishandling ballots, ordered the state’s top law enforcement agency Thursday to investigate and filed a lawsuit demanding access to ballots narrowing his lead against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson,” USA Today reports.

Said Scott: “I will not stand idly by while unethical liberals try to steal an election.”

Pressure Builds on Beto O’Rourke to Run for President

November 8, 2018 at 8:35 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s closer-than-expected loss Tuesday has fueled optimism among his friends and allies — as well as Democratic admirers across the country — that he will run for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination,” CNN reports.

“O’Rourke huddled with senior campaign aides Wednesday in El Paso, but offered them no indication of future political plans — saying he first planned to spend time at home with his family after nearly two years on the road and process the election’s results before weighing what comes next.”

“Another source described having ‘very initial discussions’ with O’Rourke in recent weeks about the prospect of a 2020 bid and what it would take to scale a Senate campaign that operated largely on the candidate’s own gut, without pollsters or a massive team of consultants, up to the national level. But the source said it’s too early for O’Rourke to have made any decisions.”

Florida Teacher Finds Ballot Box Left Behind

November 8, 2018 at 7:49 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A Florida teacher told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel that she discovered a locked ballot box that was left behind at a polling site at her school.

Sanchez’s Husband Indicted for Theft of Federal Funds

November 8, 2018 at 7:40 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The “unexpected family matter” cited by Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-CA) in withdrawing from the race for House Democratic Caucus chair relates to her husband, who was indicated on theft and conspiracy charges related to spending corporate money on personal trips, including some allegedly spent on Sánchez, Roll Call reports.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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