Nate Cohn: “Democrats have largely erased the turnout deficit that hobbled them during the Obama presidency, according to results from more than 50 New York Times Upshot/Siena College polls of the most competitive House battleground districts. Democrats may even be poised to post higher turnout than Republicans, a rarity, in many relatively white suburban districts on Nov. 6.”
An Upset No One Sees Coming
Nate Silver: “Polls and forecasts are pretty good instruments, but they’re not all that precise. Nor do they necessarily go wrong in the places you expect them to go wrong. Therefore, campaigns should generally be active in a reasonably broad set of plausibly competitive states and districts. They shouldn’t get too cute by either triaging a race too soon or taking one for granted.”
“So as you see reports about Republicans or Democrats giving up on campaigning in certain races for the House, you should ask yourself whether they’re about to replicate Clinton’s mistake. The chance the decisive race in the House will come somewhere you’re not expecting is higher than you might think.”
Houston Chronicle Endorses Beto O’Rourke
The Houston Chronicle endorsed Beto O’Rourke (D) for U.S. Senate in Texas:
There’s one more reason O’Rourke should represent Texas in the U.S. Senate: He would help to serve as a check on a president who is a danger to the republic. Cruz is unwilling to take on that responsibility. Indeed, the man who delighted in calling the Texas senator “Lyin’ Ted” all through the 2016 presidential campaign, who insulted Cruz’s wife and his father, is bringing his traveling campaign medicine show to Houston next week to buoy the Cruz campaign. The hyperbole, the hypocrisy and the rancorous hot air just might blow the roof off the Toyota Center.
While the bloviations emanate from the arena next week, imagine how refreshing it would be to have a U.S. senator who not only knows the issues but respects the opposition, who takes firm positions but reaches out to those who disagree, who expects to make government work for Texas and the nation. Beto O’Rourke, we believe, is that senator.
Quote of the Day
“Grab your family, grab your friends, grab your neighbors, and get to the polls, because if not, you are going to have another two or another six years of this craziness.”
— Former Trump personal lawyer Michael Cohen, in an interview with CNN.
Russian Charged In Attempt to Interfere in Midterms
“The Justice Department on Friday charged a Russian woman for her role in a conspiracy to interfere with the 2018 U.S. election, marking the first criminal case prosecutors have brought against a foreign national for meddling in the upcoming Midterms,” the Washington Post reports.
“The charges against Elena Khusyaynova came just as the Office of the Director of National Intelligence warned that it was concerned about ‘ongoing campaigns’ by Russia, China and Iran to interfere with the upcoming Midterm elections and even the 2020 race — an ominous warning that comes just weeks before voters head to the polls.”
Republicans Predict a Bigger Majority in the Senate
“Senate Republicans are feeling increasingly bullish about expanding their majority next month,” Politico reports.
“Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado, who chairs the GOP’s campaign arm, told national donors on a conference call this week that believes his party will win the vast majority of competitive Senate races according to a person who was on the call. Gardner’s sunny outlook envisions a Republican majority as brawny as 55 seats, a number that could put the GOP in the majority for years to come. Republicans currently control 51 seats.”
The FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast suggests the most likely outcome is that Republicans keep their 51 to 49 majority.
Democracy Is On the Ballot
Richard Clarke, national security analyst and host of the Future State podcast, joins Chris Riback for a discussion on the future of our country.
Sign up for Chris’s free newsletter and subscribe via iTunes or Google Play to get new episodes automatically downloaded to your phone.
Thanks, as always, to the Cook Political Report for sponsoring this episode. Use the code “politicalwire” and you’ll get 18% off of a subscription.
And don’t miss our live show at Harvard’s Kennedy School on October 26.
Record-Setting White House Staff Turnover Continues
Brookings: “With the recent departure of White House Counsel, Don McGahn (and premature announcement of his successor, Pat Cipollone), turnover within the most senior level of White House staff members bumped up to 83 percent. Ten of the twelve Tier One staff members have departed, leaving only Cabinet Secretary, Bill McGinley, and Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Kevin Hassett.”
“Of the ten departures, seven have resigned under pressure (Priebus, Walsh, Spicer, Sifakis, Porter, Flynn and McFarland), one was promoted (Clark) and two (Short and McGahn) resigned on their own volition (though not without enduring some amount of criticism and controversy over the course of their tenure).”
There’s a Chance Clinton Could Run Again
Former Clinton aide Philippe Reines told Politico that he thinks it is “unlikely” that Hillary Clinton would mount a 2020 bid, but cautioned that it was not an impossibility.
Said Reines: “It’s somewhere between highly unlikely and zero, but it’s not zero.”
Flake and Sasse Blasted for Never Standing Up to Trump
Jeffrey Toobin called out Sens. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Ben Sasse (R-NE) on CNN, saying they talk about standing up to President Trump but actually “do nothing.”
Said Toobin: “They never vote against the president. They never actually take a stand.”
Lewis Once Mocked Women Over Unwanted Touching
Rep. Jason Lewis (R-MN) “once mocked women who were traumatized by unwanted sexual advances, including those inappropriately kissed or who had their thighs touched,” CNN reports.
The Minnesota congressman made his comment during a radio broadcast before he was elected to the House in 2016.
Said Lewis: “I don’t want to be callous here, but how traumatizing was it? How many women at some point in their life have a man come on to them, place their hand on their shoulder or maybe even their thigh, kiss them, and they would rather not have it happen, but is that really something that’s going to be seared in your memory that you’ll need therapy for?”
Health Care Dominates Midterm Election Ads
Wesleyan Media Project: “In the period between September 18 and October 15, nearly half (45.9%) of airings in federal races mentioned the topic while nearly a third (30.2%) of gubernatorial airings did the same. Although both parties are mentioning health care, the topic is most prominent in ads supporting Democrats, appearing in 54.5% of pro-Democratic airings.”
Rihanna Turns Down Super Bowl Appearance
Rihanna turned down performing at the Super Bowl Halftime Show out of support for Colin Kaepernick, Us Weekly reports.
Said one source: “The NFL and CBS really wanted Rihanna to be next year’s performer in Atlanta. They offered it to her, but she said no because of the kneeling controversy. She doesn’t agree with the NFL’s stance.”
Trump Bets the Midterms Will Be a Base Election
James Hohmann: “The president has told party poohbahs that he believes the midterms will primarily be a base election. His adopted party is likely to hold the Senate because this year’s best pick-up opportunities are in states he carried by double digits that are overwhelmingly white and heavily rural, where his immigration positions most resonate. GOP candidates, especially in red states, have followed Trump’s lead and made immigration a major theme of their advertising in the home stretch. The strategy might work.”
Some Republicans Now Want to Save Parts of Obamacare
Los Angeles Times: “The shift reflects the growing popularity of Obamacare and Democrats’ success in using the issue to make a compelling closing argument in the midterm races. A handful of Republican lawmakers and candidates, including Costa Mesa Rep. Dana Rohrabacher and Missouri Senate hopeful Josh Hawley, have filmed ads about their children’s medical conditions — the kinds of health problems that without Obamacare’s protections would make insurance coverage unaffordable. Others have made promises in videos and debates.”
Early Voting Way Up In Virginia
Washington Post: “Nearly 78,000 people have completed ballots since absentee voting began Sept. 15 — more than double the number who voted early by this point last year, according to an analysis of voting data by the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project. That number is still shy of the 123,221 absentee ballots cast during the 2014 midterm elections, state data shows. But with a little less than three weeks before the Nov. 6 elections, local election officials say this year’s absentee totals are on pace to eclipse 2014 and may even approach the turnout for the presidential election of 2016, when a near-record 496,452 Virginians cast their ballots early.”
Trump Moves Rally for Cruz to Bigger Venue
President Trump has moved his Texas rally for Sen. Ted Cruz’s reelection campaign to a larger venue because of what a top aide called “huge and unprecedented” ticket sales, Politico reports.
The Trump campaign originally chose Houston’s NRG Arena, which can hold 8,000, and then abruptly changed locations on Thursday to the Toyota Center, which can hold 19,000.
Pat Robertson Says Punishing Saudis Not Worth the Risk
Evangelical leader Pat Robertson told viewers of the 700 Club to “cool down the tempers of those who are screaming blood for the Saudis” and not risk a $100 billion arms deal with the United States over the apparent death of Saudi dissident and journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Said Robertson: “These people are key allies. I don’t think on this issue we need pull sanctions and get tough. I just think it’s a mistake.”
