“Bolstered by an unpopular Republican president and favorable winds in suburban districts, Democrats see a golden opportunity to win back hundreds of state legislative seats across the country, rebuilding a bench decimated by midterm election results in 2010 and 2014,” The Hill reports.
“The favorable conditions represent the Democratic Party’s first chances to claim some control over the decennial redistricting process, which begins after the 2020 Census.”
Justice Brett Kavanaugh “is unlikely to heed calls by critics to step aside from certain politically charged U.S. Supreme Court cases in which his fairness and independence might be questioned after a divisive confirmation fight,” Reuters reports.
”U.S. law requires justices to step aside when there is a conflict of interest or genuine question of bias, but it leaves the recusal decision in the hands of the individual justices.”
A new PRRI/The Atlantic survey finds just 35% of young Americans (ages 18-29), compared to 81% of seniors (ages 65 and older) and 55% of all Americans, say they are absolutely certain to vote in the November midterm elections.
Young Americans are also significantly less likely than seniors to say that all their friends are certain to vote (7% vs. 18%).
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“Republicans say they’re on the cusp of delivering a knockout blow to North Dakota Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp — and virtually ending Democrats’ hopes of winning the Senate,” Politico reports.
“Heitkamp is down in public polls by a significant margin, and most political handicappers think Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) is the favorite to beat her. If she goes down, Democrats would basically have to run the table in every other battleground race to take the chamber.”
Above the Law: Supreme Court ruling swings North Dakota Senate race towards Republicans.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told the San Francisco Chronicle that Democrats will immediately try to force President Trump to release his tax returns if they take back the House in November.
Said Pelosi: “Demanding the president’s tax returns ‘is one of the first things we’d do — that’s the easiest thing in the world. That’s nothing.”
Playbook: “Over the last few days, we’ve seen a massive ramp-up of the ‘build-the-wall’ rhetoric from key Hill Republicans — signaling that the Dec. 7 funding deadline will be a major funding clash over the physical border with Mexico.”
“Most of the government is funded through next year, but a slice of the government runs out of money on Dec. 7, and the insiders we talk to expect a clash could last weeks. The only backstop is Christmas and New Year’s. Democrats won’t be any help — especially if they win the House majority. Remember: It’s usually Hill leaders that have been skeptical of a fight over wall funding. Now they’re lining up, ready to go to war.”
The Guardian: “In a new book, short-lived White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci escalates multiple long-running battles with erstwhile Washington colleagues while chiseling a heroic likeness of Donald Trump with inside tales of the president’s secret wisdom and wit.”
“The list of characters Scaramucci trashes anew includes current chief of staff John Kelly, former chief of staff Reince Priebus and former chief strategist Steve Bannon.”
“Kelly is ‘ineffective’ and suffers from ‘personal insecurity,’ Scaramucci writes; Priebus is a rat; and Bannon is a hypocrite and a weirdo.”
“Even as Republicans fight to keep control of Congress, at least six political action committees have spent more than $9 million to promote Trump’s re-election on TV, by phone, by mail and online since he took office, according to a McClatchy analysis of Federal Election Commission filings through Tuesday.”
“Those same groups have spent only about $1.2 million supporting Republicans candidates for the House and Senate, according to the analysis.”
First lady Melania Trump told ABC News that she has told her husband there have been people in his administration she didn’t trust who worked for him.
Said Trump: “It’s harder to govern. You always need to watch your back.”
A new Quinnipiac poll in Texas finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leading challenger Beto O’Rourke (D) by nine points in the U.S. Senate race, 54% to 45%.
Politico: “As he’s ramped up his rally schedule ahead of the midterms, viewership numbers for the raucous primetime events have been roughly similar to — sometimes dipping below — Fox News’ regular programming, and the network has recently stopped airing most evening events in full.”
“During three Trump rallies last week, Fox News showed clips and highlights from his speeches but stuck largely with its normal weekday primetime programming.”
“Republicans and Democrats are delivering their closing arguments to midterm voters, aggressively stoking fears about the opposing party on health-care and the rule of law with less than four weeks until the election,” the Washington Post reports.
“The strategies are part of a broader trend that has emerged in campaigns across the country, with control of Congress at stake on Nov. 6. Republicans are determined to brand Democrats as extremists who they argue should alarm most voters. Democrats are characterizing Republicans as destructive crusaders against landmark laws protecting everyday people.”
“The raw emotion on both sides of the Kavanaugh fight was still palpable Wednesday. Sensing little to be gained by re-litigating it, Democrats resolved to turn the page to a subject they have made a cornerstone of their campaign to retake Congress: health care.”
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) declined CNN’s invitation to participate in a televised town hall with challenger Beto O’Rourke (D), the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
So O’Rourke will be featured in a live, one-hour town hall on October 18.
The Washington Post reports that almost every sentence in President Trump’s opinion piece for USA Today contains a misleading statement or a falsehood.
A new Marquette University Law School Poll in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) barely ahead of challenger Tony Evers (D), 47% to 46% among likely voters.
Last month, Evers had a 5-point lead.
Olivia Nuzzi writes about her own private press conference in the Oval Office with President Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Chief of Staff John Kelly.
Said Kelly: “There is, to the best of my knowledge, no chaos in this building.”
“President Trump talked recently with Jeff Sessions’s own chief of staff about replacing Sessions as attorney general, signaling that the president remains keenly interested in ousting his top law enforcement official,” the Washington Post reports.
“The conversation between Trump and Matthew G. Whitaker was somewhat nebulous, the people said. It was not clear, for example, whether Whitaker would take over on an interim basis or be nominated in a more permanent capacity, or how definitive the president’s intentions were.”
A new NBC News/Marist poll in Minnesota finds Sen. Tina Smith (D) leading challenger Karin Housley (R) among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race, 54% to 38%.
In Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D) reelection race, she leads opponent Jim Newberger (R) by 30 percentage points, 63% to 33%.
Key finding: “The poll finds that 53 percent of likely voters prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats after the November midterm elections, while 41 percent prefer Republicans.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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