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NRA Claims Deep Financial Problems

August 3, 2018 at 11:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The National Rifle Association warns that it is in grave financial jeopardy, according to a recent court filing obtained by Rolling Stone, and that it could soon ‘be unable to exist… or pursue its advocacy mission.'”

“The reason, according to the NRA filing, is not its deep entanglement with alleged Russian agents like Maria Butina. Instead, the gun group has been suing New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and the state’s financial regulators since May, claiming the NRA has been subject to a state-led ‘blacklisting campaign’ that has inflicted ‘tens of millions of dollars in damages.'”

Trump Is Leery of Facing Biden

August 3, 2018 at 11:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A GOP strategist tells Roll Call that President Trump appears to “know that Joe Biden is probably the one Democrat who could beat him.”

Said the strategist: “I don’t think he wants to run against Biden. When it comes to white, educated women in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin and other swing states, Trump, I think, realizes Biden would be big trouble in terms of appealing to them… He would much rather see a Warren or a Sanders, no doubt.”

15 Lawmakers Accused of Sexual Misconduct Advance

August 3, 2018 at 11:41 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “Of the 25 state lawmakers who are running for re-election despite allegations of sexual misconduct, 15 have already advanced to the Nov. 6 general election. Seven did not even face a challenger in their primary.”


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Historian Says Trump Using ‘Stalinist’ Tactics

August 3, 2018 at 11:11 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Presidential historian Jon Meacham lashed out at President Trump for calling the media an “enemy of the people,” saying it’s a “totalitarian” strategy, The Hill reports.

Said Meacham: “It’s an elective kind of base management. It’s pernicious, it’s dangerous — and this is not media elite people defending media elite people.”

He added: “It’s simply a Stalinist phrase, for God’s sake. It comes out of totalitarian regimes to declare that a free press is the enemy of the people.”

The Gender Gap Looks Massive

August 3, 2018 at 10:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

FiveThirtyEight: “The gender gap — the fact that women tend to vote Democratic at a higher rate than men do — has been a persistent feature of American politics, and it’s only getting wider. According to 2016 exit polls, women voted for Hillary Clinton by 13 percentage points, and men voted for President Trump by 11 points. That 24-point gap in the national popular vote was the biggest in the history of the presidential exit poll.”

“This week, we got a poll showing that same 24-point gender gap in the only ‘national’ election of 2018: the national popular vote for the U.S. House. A YouGov survey found that male voters preferred the Republican candidate by 9 percentage points, while female voters preferred the Democratic candidate by 15 points.”

The Difference Between Forecasters and Handicappers

August 3, 2018 at 10:33 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The following post for members is by G. Elliot Morris of The Crosstab.

Prominent midterms handicappers and oddsmakers currently put the chance that Democrats take the House at about 65% on average, while quantitative forecasters (like myself) put the odds between 75 and 80%. The difference between 75 and 65 may seem trivial, but if you think about the odds of Republican House control the divergence is stark: a 1-in-4 chance that Republicans hold the House is about 150% less likely than a 1-in-3 chance. What explains these differences?

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Ex-GOP Official Calls Himself Second Christ

August 3, 2018 at 10:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Todd Kincannon, former executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party, has reportedly killed his dog due to his belief that he is Jesus Christ and needed to perform a sacrifice,” TPM reports.

Bannon Pledges War on Koch Network

August 3, 2018 at 9:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stephen Bannon is ratcheting up his war on the Koch network, accusing the billionaire brothers of running “a conscious scam” and a “con job,” The Hill reports.

“He also has a warning for Republican candidates in November’s midterm elections who might be thinking of distancing themselves from President Trump: Don’t do it.”

Said Bannon: “You’re not going to be able to hide Trump. The opposition is going to force this anyway…You have to go all-in. If you try to go in half-baked, it’s not going to work.”

Sanders Won’t Disavow Media as ‘Enemy of the People’

August 3, 2018 at 8:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“During a tense White House briefing on Thursday, CNN’s Jim Acosta challenged the press secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, to disavow President Trump’s description of journalists as ‘the enemy of the people,'” the New York Times reports.

“Ms. Sanders declined to do so, saying she had been personally attacked in the media and had faced threats since starting her job.”

First Read: “But here’s a reminder after Huckabee Sanders attacked the press: She’s a public official who works for the American people. It’s one thing for a campaign or party operative to say the things that Huckabee Sanders did yesterday – it’s another for someone whose salary is paid for by American taxpayers to say it.”

Fifth House Republican Loses Bid for Statewide Office

August 3, 2018 at 8:56 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “In Tennessee’s marquee primary contest last night, Rep. Diane Black (R-TN) — who tied herself to President Trump in TV ads — finished a disappointing third in the state’s GOP gubernatorial primary. Businessman Bill Lee was first at 37%, businessman Randy Boyd second at 24% and Black in third at 23%.”

“By our count, Black becomes the fifth House Republican to lose a bid for statewide office, following Luke Messer (Indiana), Todd Rokita (Indiana), Evan Jenkins (West Virginia) and Raul Labrador (Idaho).”

Tennessean: 5 most important takeaways from the Tennessee primaries.

China Warns It Will Hit U.S. with New Tariffs

August 3, 2018 at 8:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “China will impose tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. goods if the United States presses ahead with its latest trade threats, Beijing warned Friday. The move was cast as a response to an Aug. 2 plan to raise tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent.”

Trump Steps Up His Pace of Lies

August 3, 2018 at 8:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Susan Glasser: “History books will likely declare the last few months a turning point in the Trump Presidency, and Kessler’s laborious work gives us metrics that confirm what is becoming more and more apparent: the recent wave of misstatements is both a reflection of Trump’s increasingly unbound Presidency and a signal attribute of it. The upsurge provides empirical evidence that Trump, in recent months, has felt more confident running his White House as he pleases, keeping his own counsel, and saying and doing what he wants when he wants to.”

“The fact that Trump, while historically unpopular with the American public as a whole, has retained the loyalty of more than eighty per cent of Republicans—the group at which his lies seem to be aimed—means we are in for much more, as a midterm election approaches that may determine whether Trump is impeached by a newly Democratic Congress. At this point, the falsehoods are as much a part of his political identity as his floppy orange hair and the ‘Make America Great Again’ slogan.”

Poll Shows Plummeting Trust In Trump

August 3, 2018 at 8:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Garin-Hart-Yang/Global Strategy Group poll finds “the worst ratings for Trump on his truthfulness, temperament, dealings with Russia, and immigration policies we have not seen in any of our eleven previous national tracking surveys on the Trump presidency.”

Key finding “Trump’s dealings with Vladimir Putin, his handling of immigration and the separation of children from their families, and the impact of his trade war have stuck with voters in a way nothing else has since the beginning of his presidency.”

Harris Has Faced Social Media Dirty Tricks

August 3, 2018 at 8:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) tells the AP that “every month for the last 18 months, her office has discovered on average between three and five fake Facebook profiles pretending to be hers.”

“It’s unclear who creates the pages, which are often designed to mislead American voters about the ambitious Democratic senator’s policies and positions.”

Trump Will Decide on Mueller Interview Within 10 Days

August 3, 2018 at 7:57 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump and his legal team are likely to decide whether to grant special counsel Robert Mueller an interview with Trump within a ‘week to 10 days,’ Trump personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani said,” according to Politico.

“The former New York City mayor said Trump’s legal team will spend the weekend contemplating a new set of parameters proposed by Mueller for an interview with the president, then make a decision shortly thereafter.”

Playbook: “This is just the latest time Giuliani has invoked a short timeline for making a decision about whether the president will sit down with Mueller. Remember Trump was supposed to sit down with Mueller in January. That decision got pushed to May. Then June. And then July. We’re now in August.”

Quote of the Day

August 3, 2018 at 7:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I have great respect for the U.K. United Kingdom. Great respect. People call it Britain. They call it Great Britain. They used to call it England, different parts.”

— President Trump, at a rally in Pennsylvania.

‘His Mental Decline Could Not Be Denied’

August 2, 2018 at 8:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former White House aide Omarosa Manigault-Newman writes in her new book that she realized something was wrong with President Trump during his interview with Lester Holt last year, according to excerpts obtained by the Daily Mail.

Said Manigault-Newman: “While watching the interview I realized that something real and serious was going on in Donald’s brain. His mental decline could not be denied.”

She added: “Many didn’t notice it as keenly as I did because I knew him way back when. They thought Trump was being Trump, off the cuff. But I knew something wasn’t right.”

Donor Agreed to Pay Cohen to Secure Nuclear Project

August 2, 2018 at 8:34 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A major donor to Donald Trump agreed to pay Trump’s former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, $10 million dollars if he could successfully secure “funding for a nuclear-power project,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

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Balanced Ticket: A balanced ticket is a paring of political party candidates designed to appeal to a broad swathe of the electorate.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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