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Republicans Fear Another Special Election Loss

August 2, 2018 at 6:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Republicans are becoming increasingly concerned that they will lose the special election in Ohio’s 12th congressional district, which would be a horrible sign for their election prospects this fall.”

“For the last few weeks, Republicans involved in the race said internal polling had Republican Troy Balderson beating Democrat Danny O’Connor by a high single or low double-digit margin. But the race has tightened, and the election is five days away. A public poll conducted by Monmouth had Balderson up by one point yesterday.”

“This would be a tough loss for Republicans to explain away. This district has been held by Republicans — Pat Tiberi and John Kasich — for 35 years. They got the candidate they wanted in Balderson. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the GOP super PAC, has spent $2.4 million. The NRCC has kicked in $1.3 million.”

Quote of the Day

August 2, 2018 at 6:42 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I talk to him all the time, and he checks in on me all the time.”

— Meghan McCain, quoted by Glamour, on how former Vice President Joe Biden has been supportive during Sen. John McCain’s illness.

Congress Has Seen Massive Turnover

August 2, 2018 at 6:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Doug Sosnik: “In the next Congress, there will be at most only 45 senators who were in office before 2011. In the House, the turnover has been almost as dramatic. Next year, there will be at most 160 House members—barely a third of the body—who were elected before the 2010 midterms.”


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Acosta Blames Hannity for ‘Injecting Poison’ Into U.S.

August 1, 2018 at 10:51 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

CNN’s Jim Acosta hit back at Fox News host Sean Hannity for saying that attendees at President Trump’s rally were right for heckling the CNN correspondent, The Hill reports.

Said Acosta: “Hannity is a propagandist for profit, peddling lies every night. He says he’s just a talk show host, not a journalist. But he’s injecting poison into the nation’s political bloodstream warping public attitudes about the press. I’m confident in the long run the truth will prevail.”

Mueller Has Also Exposed Foreign Lobbying

August 1, 2018 at 10:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “At the trial of Paul Manafort, an unflattering picture has emerged of lawyers, lobbyists and consultants from both political parties winning big paydays for work on behalf of a Kremlin-aligned former Ukrainian strongman. Some spent the money on cars and homes, prosecutors said, and a jacket made of ostrich for Mr. Manafort.”

“The vigor with which Mr. Mueller has investigated the flows of foreign money from Ukraine, Turkey and other countries into Washington could be as much a part of his legacy as special counsel as whatever he discovers about possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign or presidential obstruction of justice.”

Trump Is Pushing for Interview with Mueller

August 1, 2018 at 10:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump pushed his lawyers in recent days to try once again to reach an agreement with the special counsel’s office about him sitting for an interview, flouting their advice that he should not answer investigators’ questions,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Trump has told advisers he is eager to meet with investigators to clear himself of wrongdoing, the people said. In effect, he believes he can convince the investigators for the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, of his belief that their own inquiry is a ‘witch hunt.’l

Former Coach Urged Jordan’s Accusers to Recant

August 1, 2018 at 8:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Retired Ohio State wrestling coach Russ Hellickson reached out to two ex-team members and asked them to support their former assistant coach, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) a day after they accused the powerful congressman of turning a blind eye to alleged sexual abuse by the team doctor,” according to the wrestlers and text messages they shared with NBC News.

“The former wrestlers said their ex-coach made it clear to them he was under pressure from Jordan to get statements of support from members of the team.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

August 1, 2018 at 6:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I mean seriously, on the tweets, is anybody even paying attention anymore? I mean there’s so many of them, they conflict each other so much. Nobody pays attention around here.”

— Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), quoted by The Hill, on President Trump’s use of Twitter.

Mueller Wants to Ask Trump About Obstruction of Justice

August 1, 2018 at 4:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Special counsel Robert Mueller’s office wants to ask President Trump about obstruction of justice,” sources close to the White House tell ABC News.

“The president learned within the last day that the special counsel will limit the scope of questioning and would like to ask questions both orally and written for the President to respond to.”

“According to sources familiar with the President’s reaction Wednesday morning, that was the genesis for his early morning tweet storm.”

Quote of the Day

August 1, 2018 at 4:33 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“We believe the investigation should be brought to a close… Put up or shut up.”

— Rudy Giuliani, in an interview with CNN, on special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe.

Republicans Praise Trump at Record Rates

August 1, 2018 at 3:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Members of a president’s party often avoid mentions of the president during a midterm election year, but 2018 is proving to be an exception,” according to an analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

“President Trump was referenced positively in 14.8% of federal election ads (amounting to over 27,000 ads) in the past two months, whereas President Obama was mentioned positively in less than 1% of federal election ads aired during the same time period in 2010 and 2014. Even George W. Bush in 2002, whose approval ratings were sky high in the wake of the September 2001 terrorist attacks, was mentioned positively in a smaller share of federal ads (13.9%).”

“Trump was also referenced negatively in fewer ads than Obama was in 2010 and 2014 during the same summer time period (June 5 through July 29). Trump gets a negative mention in 9.7% of airings, while Obama was mentioned in a disapproving way in 16.1% of ads in 2010 and 26.6 percent of ads in 2014. George W. Bush, however, was mentioned negatively in almost no ads in 2002 and in less than 5% of ads in 2006.”

Clinton Teams with Spielberg on TV Show

August 1, 2018 at 2:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Hillary Clinton she was working with director Steven Spielberg to bring a book about women’s fight for voting rights, The Woman’s Hour, to television, Reuters reports.

Spielberg said that Clinton would be one of four executive producers on the show, which is being developed for a cable channel or a streaming platform.

White House Snubs Casey

August 1, 2018 at 1:52 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The White House refused to invite Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) to the signing ceremony for a bill he sponsored, the Harrisburg Patriot-News reports.

“At least two people close to the matter confirmed that the White House invited all the Republican and Democratic lawmakers who worked on the bill — except for Casey.”

How to Use the Internet to Change World

August 1, 2018 at 1:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Just out: How to Use the Internet to Change the World – and Win Elections by Colin Delany.

Ohio Special Election Is a Toss Up

August 1, 2018 at 1:08 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Monmouth poll in Ohio’s 12th congressional district finds the special election race a toss up: “Different voter models suggest that the race could go either way.”

Tory Balderson (R) edges Danny O’Connor (D) by 44% to 43% among all potential voters – that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote.

A standard model that looks like a typical midterm voter pool also shows Balderon barely ahead, 46% to 45%. A lower turnout model where only the most reliable voters show up, shows Balderson ahead 49% to 44%.

However, in a Democratic “surge” model akin to turnout patterns that have been seen in many special elections held since 2017, O’Connor is just ahead, 46% to 45%.

Key Witness May Not Testify In Manafort Trial

August 1, 2018 at 1:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Federal prosecutors prosecutors in the criminal trial of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort said that they might not call Manafort’s former business associate Richard Gates to testify, The Hill reports.

Said Assistant U.S. Attorney Uzo Asonye: “He may testify in this case, he may not.”

Trump Rallies Go From Nasty to Dangerous

August 1, 2018 at 12:51 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Margaret Sullivan: “Hostility toward the media at Trump rallies is nothing new. It infected the presidential campaign and has marred every raucous gathering of supporters since the election.”

“But on Tuesday night in Tampa, the extreme aggression dropped the basement floor another level. This was a new low. And a scary one at that.”

Jim Acosta shared this video: “I’m very worried that the hostility whipped up by Trump and some in conservative media will result in somebody getting hurt. We should not treat our fellow Americans this way. The press is not the enemy.”

Trump’s Approval Ratings Are Unusually Stable

August 1, 2018 at 12:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Pew Research: “Over the course of an eventful first 18 months in office, President Trump’s approval ratings have remained remarkably stable. There has also been a wider gap between Republicans’ and Democrats’ views of Trump than for any other U.S. president in the modern era of polling.”

“Four-in-ten Americans approve of Trump’s job performance while 54% say they disapprove, according to a Pew Research Center survey in June. Trump’s approval ratings have hardly moved in surveys conducted by the Center this year, and his current rating is nearly identical to the 39% who said they approved of his performance in February 2017, shortly after his inauguration.”

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Balanced Ticket: A balanced ticket is a paring of political party candidates designed to appeal to a broad swathe of the electorate.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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