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Exchange of the Day

June 4, 2018 at 7:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Bill Clinton was interviewed by Craig Melvin on NBC’s Today Show about whether he ever apologized to Monica Lewinsky:

MELVIN: “I asked if you’d ever apologized. And you said you had.”

CLINTON: “I have.”

MELVIN: “You’ve apologized to her?”

CLINTON: “I apologized to everybody in the world.”

MELVIN: “But you didn’t apologize to her?”

CLINTON: “I have not talked to her. I– I thought it—”

MELVIN: “Do you feel like you owe her an apology—”

CLINTON: “No, I do—I do not. I’ve never talked to her. But I did say, publicly, on more than one occasion, that I was sorry. That’s very different. The apology was public.”

Clinton is on a book tour promoting his new novel with James Patterson, The President Is Missing.

Trump’s Mind-Control Superpowers

June 4, 2018 at 7:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jim VandeHei: “In our lifetime, no president has matched Donald Trump’s ability to summon the power of the pulpit, friendly media, and the tweet-by-tweet power of repetition and persuasion to move minds en masse.”

“You see this in the silence of Republican critics; the instant shifts in GOP views of the FBI, Putin and deficits; and the quick, widespread adoption of his branding efforts around ‘deep state,’ ‘Spygate’ and ‘no collusion.’ We hear so much, so often that we become numb to what Trump is doing. This allows big things (such as fundamental shifts in governing norms) to seem like small things or nothing at all.”

“Trump and allies are floating untested legal arguments: The president can’t obstruct justice, or can unilaterally shut down probes of himself, or can even pardon himself. If you think he won’t try something unprecedented — and maybe get away with it, at least with Republicans — you aren’t paying attention.”

How to Negotiate with North Korea

June 4, 2018 at 7:24 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Expect lies. Do your homework — because they will have. Choose your words very carefully. And have Job-like patience. Oh, and remember that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un considers himself a supreme being.”

“These are some of the tips offered by half a dozen of the select American diplomats who have actually sat face-to-face with North Korea’s mercurial and often maddening regime. They provide some guidance to President Donald Trump and his advisers as they prepare for a June 12 summit with Kim in Singapore aimed at convincing him to surrender his nuclear arsenal.”


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House Republicans Careen Toward Immigration Showdown

June 4, 2018 at 7:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “A petition to force a wide-ranging immigration debate on the House floor stands at 213 — five short of the requisite 218. House Republican leaders have been working feverishly behind the scenes to strike a compromise that would avoid the free-flowing debate, and instead give Republicans a series of circumscribed votes this month. The GOP has scheduled a two-hour policy meeting Thursday to discuss immigration.”

“No matter what happens, these next four weeks will be dominated, in part, by the immigration debate that Congress has been yearning for for the last six years. This could be a defining moment for the GOP, and there is lots of skepticism that this will go smoothly.”

Economists Worry About Possible Recession In 2020

June 4, 2018 at 7:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A group of top business economists believes the major tax cuts President Donald Trump pushed through Congress will give a significant boost to economic growth this year and next year. But they worry that by 2020, the country could be entering a new recession,” the AP reports.

“Part of the drop-off in optimism reflects growing worries about what Trump’s get-tough approach on trade might do to U.S. growth prospects.”

Giuliani Says Trump’s Recollection ‘Keeps Changing’

June 3, 2018 at 8:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rudy Giuliani told ABC News that President Trump’s explanation for helping draft a statement on a controversial 2016 Trump Tower meeting has repeatedly changed because “our recollection keeps changing.”

Said Giuliani: “This is the reason you don’t let the president testify. Our recollection keeps changing, or we’re not even asked a question and somebody makes an assumption.”

GOP Candidates Echo Trump on Immigration

June 3, 2018 at 8:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Leading Republican candidates are depicting many undocumented immigrants as criminals and endorsing a proposed wall on the Mexican border, adopting President Trump’s hard-line stance and alarming some who fear the GOP is out of step with a rapidly diversifying nation,” the Washington Post reports.

“The party’s increasingly aggressive tone on the issue represents a shift from just two years ago, when many Republican leaders criticized then-candidate Trump’s rhetoric as racially charged and predicted he would alienate Hispanic voters.”

Making More Sense of the Generic Ballot

June 3, 2018 at 8:15 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The following post for members is by G. Elliott Morris of The Crosstab.

How many times have you seen a variant of the following headlines this year? “Democrats reach new high in midterm race” or “Democrats’ 2018 advantage is nearly gone,” or maybe even “New poll shows GOP now leads in 2018 generic ballot?”  These angles are a product of either bad data analysis — pundits and prognosticators crafting narratives from too few data points — or a focus on too-quick-to-move averages of generic ballot polls when we’re still 156 days (!) away from the November 6 midterm elections.

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First Lady Will Not Join Trump on Upcoming Trips

June 3, 2018 at 7:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First lady Melania Trump will not be joining President Trump on his upcoming trips to the G7 summit in Quebec and the highly anticipated summit between the United States and North Korea in Singapore, ABC News reports.

The first lady has not been seen in public since May 10.

Quote of the Day

June 3, 2018 at 6:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In no case can he be subpoenaed or indicted. I don’t know how you can indict while he’s in office. No matter what it is.”

— Rudy Giuliani, quoted by the HuffPost, suggesting President Trump couldn’t be indicted even “if he shot James Comey.”

New Poll Averaging Method Would Have Predicted Trump

June 3, 2018 at 6:31 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

A new polling aggregation technique explained at Science Direct would have come much closer to predicting Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election.

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Michael Cohen Wanted to Run for Mayor

June 3, 2018 at 6:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Swan: “On election night 2016, shortly after Donald Trump’s team realized he would win the presidency, Michael Cohen told a handful of people on the 14th floor of Trump Tower about his own dreams for the future — to be mayor of New York.”

Said Cohen: “This is the beginning of a dynasty.”

He added: “I’ve already got the bug. Nobody’s going to be able to fuck with us. I think I’m going to run for mayor.”

Tax Cuts Unlikely to Save GOP House Majority

June 3, 2018 at 6:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Political analyst Charlie Cook confirmed to Axios that when he addressed senior House Republicans a few weeks ago, he told the group “that the tax cut did help among Republican voters, but helped only a little and temporarily among independents and did nothing with Democratic voters.”

Said Cook: “The essence of what I said was that if they were going to rely primarily on the tax cuts to hang onto their majority, they were unlikely to succeed.”

He added: “Even with the uptick in President Trump’s numbers and in the generic ballot test, I still think it is pretty uphill for them to hang onto their House majority. I use the metaphor of a Democratic tidal wave up against a Republican sea wall. In the House, the wave looks taller and stronger than the wall, in the Senate, the wall looks taller than the wave.”

Trump’s 500-Day Coup of the Republican Party

June 3, 2018 at 11:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Swan: “In 500 days, Trump’s hijacking of the formerly conservative GOP is complete — an astonishing accomplishment. The majority party in America is fully defined by his policies, his popularity with the base, his facts-be-damned mentality, his ability to control and quiet virtually all Republican elected officials.”

“Trump has wiped out a large portion of Obama’s legacy. He’s exited the Paris climate deal; signed major tax cuts, especially for corporations; confirmed an ultra-conservative Supreme Court justice and record numbers of circuit court judges; deregulated like crazy; exited the Iran deal; exited the TPP trade deal; repealed the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate; and moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing it as Israel’s capital.”

“New hardline immigration enforcement is in place, including separating children from parents of illegal immigrants.”

Axios points out that Trump “commands the second highest ‘own party’ approval rating of any president at the 500 day mark since World War II, behind only President George W. Bush, after 9/11.”

Race for House Control Is a Toss Up

June 3, 2018 at 10:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker finds the 2018 midterm elections looks like a toss-up contest for control of the House, as the Democrats would most likely get 219 seats if the election were today (just one more than the 218 needed for a majority) and the Republicans 216.

With a margin of error of nine seats on the model, control is totally up for grabs.

“This would amount to a sizable gain for Democrats, who currently hold 195 seats (including vacant seats) – yet it just barely puts them in position to take control, given the deficit they have to make up. But it’s not yet the massive “blue wave” that some pundits have speculated will sweep the Democrats to a comfortable majority, despite their high-profile wins and strong turnout in recent special elections.”

Giuliani Would Recommend Trump Not Testify

June 3, 2018 at 10:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rudy Giuliani told ABC News that the president’s legal team is “leaning toward not” recommending he participate in an interview with the team investigating Russian interference in the 2016 elections.

Said Giuliani: “We’re leaning toward not. But look, if they can convince that it will be brief, it would be to the point, there were five or six points they have to clarify, and with that, we can get this long nightmare for the American public over.”

Giuliani Says Trump Has Power to Pardon Himself

June 3, 2018 at 10:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rudy Giuliani told ABC News that President Trump “probably does” have the power to pardon himself.

However, Giuliani added, “I think the political ramifications of that would be tough. Pardoning other people is one thing. Pardoning yourself is another. Other presidents have pardoned people in circumstances like this, both in their administration and sometimes the next president even of a different party will come along and pardon.”

Meanwhile, former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara told CNN: “I think if the president decided he was going to pardon himself, I think it is almost self-executing impeachment. Whether or not there is an argument that is not what the framers could have intended.”

Trump Moves to Unravel International Trade

June 3, 2018 at 7:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump appears prepared to unravel 70 years of pain­staking effort that the United States has led to build an inter­national system of trade based on mutually accepted rules and principles,” the Washington Post reports.

“Ever since an agreement on trade emerged in 1947 from the ashes of World War II, presidents of both parties have pushed this system as a way to strengthen alliances and promote the expansion of democracy and prosperity in Europe and Asia.”

“But with Trump’s decision last week to enact aluminum and steel tariffs against U.S. allies in Europe and North America, he is subverting previously agreed-­upon trade pacts. The result is a brewing trade war with Canada, Mexico and Europe, which are expressing shock and bitter frustration while enacting tariffs of their own on a bevy of American products.”

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Armchair Strategist: An armchair strategist is a person who creates plans and military strategy without being directly involved in the area.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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