“I have NATO. I have the UK, which is in somewhat turmoil. And I have Putin. Frankly, Putin may be the easiest of them all. Who would think?”
— President Trump, quoted by CNN, before leaving for the NATO summit in Brussels.
Another Wrestler Says Jordan Ignored Abuse
Another former Ohio State University wrestler told CNN that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) was aware of sexual abuse allegations against the wrestling team doctor when he was a wrestling coach at the school.
The former wrestler said he directly told Jordan about the team doctor’s behavior and that Jordan did nothing: “I remember coming up and saying, ‘Strauss held my balls longer than normal.’ He just snickered.”
Does Kavanaugh Think Presidents Are Above the Law?
Greg Sargent: “It is unlikely that Democrats will be able to block Brett Kavanaugh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Anthony Kennedy, from taking a seat on the Supreme Court. But they can do all they can to clarify the stakes in this battle, to illustrate in advance of the midterm elections what GOP control of the White House and Congress really means for the country over the long term.”
“Here’s one important area in which they can do that: They must press Kavanaugh to clarify his thinking on the question of whether presidents are above the law, or more specifically, how much power presidents have with regard to investigations into themselves.”
Schumer Lays Out Plan to Block Kavanaugh
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said that Senate Democrats can successfully orchestrate the rejection of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh “if they can convince the American people that his confirmation will lead to the undoing of abortion rights and the Affordable Care Act by the Supreme Court,” Politico reports.
Said Schumer: “Let me say this. I believe if we can prove to the American people, which I believe is truly the case, that this nominee will lead to a court that repeals women’s reproductive freedom, repeals ACA with its protections for pre-existing conditions, we will get a majority of the Senate to vote for it.”
He added: “Obviously, even if we had every Democrat, we need two Republicans. But if we can make that case, we will get a majority.”
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Democrats Remain Favorites to Take the House
Cook Political Report: “Based on the Republicans’ structural advantages from redistricting and residential patterns, Democrats likely need to win seven to eight percent more votes than the GOP to win the barest possible majority of 218 seats. By that measure, it’s close: today, the RealClearPolitics average of congressional generic ballot polls gives Democrats a seven-point lead, while FiveThirtyEight‘s gives Democrats an eight-point advantage.”
“These fundamentals suggest a photo finish in the House. But in our view, the intensity gap between the parties’ voters is what gives Democrats a slight edge… This heightened Democratic enthusiasm… helps explain why, on average, Democrats have run nine points ahead of their typical shares of the vote in eight special elections held since last April.”
“If the 24 Toss Ups were to split evenly between the parties, Democrats would gain 18 seats, five short of a majority. But that doesn’t take into account that there are 26 GOP-held seats in Lean Republican with strong potential to become Toss Ups, and an additional 28 GOP-held seats in Likely Republican with the potential to become more competitive. In other words, there’s still a lot of upside for Democrats.”
Democrats Have One ‘Nuclear Option’ Left
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Trump Pardons Cattle Ranchers
President Trump “pardoned a pair of Oregon ranchers whose arson conviction became a focus for opponents of federal government land ownership,” The Hill reports.
“Dwight Hammond, 76, and his son Steven, 49, were convicted in 2012 and sent to prison on arson charges. They had set a series of fires on their ranch that spread to federal land.”
“The Hammonds’ case became the inspiration for the 40-day armed occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in 2016. The organizers wanted to protest federal land ownership.”
New Recording Rocks Georgia Runoff
Georgia Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle’s (R) gubernatorial campaign “was already rocked last month by the release of a secretly recorded conversation in which Cagle said he backed what he called ‘bad public policy’ for political gain. Cagle’s runoff opponent, Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R), released another snippet of that conversation Monday,” the AP reports.
In this 50-second clip, Cagle can be heard candidly discussing the GOP primary’s sharp turn to the right, saying the five-man race came down to “who had the biggest gun, who had the biggest truck and who could be the craziest.”
The runoff is on July 24 and the winner faces Stacey Abrams (D).
Quote of the Day
“Dear America, appreciate your allies, after all you don’t have all that many.”
— European Council President Donald Tusk, quoted by the AP.
Key Senators Face Ad Blitz
NBC News: “The Charles Koch-backed organization Americans for Prosperity announced Monday that it will spend ‘seven figures’ on grassroots organizing, paid media and door-to-to door canvassing in the ten states that Democrats are trying to defend in November. And other political interest groups are planning a barrage of campaign ads as well as on-the-ground grassroots activities. Among those Democrats bearing the brunt will be Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin of West Virginia.”
Most of Trump’s Claims at Rally Were False
Washington Post: “We’re doing something new today: Analyzing every factual claim from President Trump’s campaign rally in Montana on July 5.”
“According to our analysis, the truth took a beating in Montana. From a grand total of 98 factual statements we identified, 76 percent were false, misleading or unsupported by evidence.”
“Here’s a breakdown: 45 false or mostly false statements, 25 misleading statements and four unsupported claims. We also counted 24 accurate or mostly accurate statements. False or mostly false statements alone accounted for 46 percent of all claims.”
Ex-Putin Aide Has Secret Investment In U.S. Energy Firm
Vladimir Putin’s former chief of staff has a secret investment in an American energy company, The Guardian reports.
Alexander Voloshin — who worked for Putin between 2000 and 2003 — has an undisclosed stake in American Ethane, a firm based in Houston that has been praised by President Trump as creating jobs for American workers.
Susan Collins Has Been a Very Reliable ‘Yes’ Vote
“During her 21 years in the Senate, Collins has voted for judicial nominees put forward by Republican presidents nearly 99 percent of the time, according to a Boston Globe analysis of more than 500 of her roll-call votes for Supreme Court, circuit court of appeals, district court, and other judicial appointments.”
McConnell Has No Room for Error
Politico: “McConnell is overseeing the slimmest Senate majority in modern times to handle D.C. Circuit Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court, and the majority leader has no margin for error in what’s effectively a 50-49 divide with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) still out with brain cancer.”
“McConnell and Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley’s handling of the confirmation process is likely to have a major effect on how voters perceive the GOP majority as midterm elections near. And though GOP leaders expressed confidence that the Senate will approve whomever President Donald Trump picked, they concede that the next two months are going to put their majority to the test.”
Flashback Quote of the Day
“Having seen first-hand how complex and difficult that job is, I believe it vital that the President be able to focus on his never-ending tasks with as few distractions as possible. The country wants the President to be ‘one of us’ who bears the same responsibilities of citizenship that all share. But I believe that the President should be excused from some of the burdens of ordinary citizenship while serving in office.”
— Brett Kavanaugh, writing in the Minnesota Law Review in 2008.
Kavanaugh Has a Long Paper Trail
Politico: “Kavanaugh’s paperwork predicament — stemming from two years he spent in President George W. Bush’s White House Counsel’s office and just over three as Bush’s staff secretary—is not completely unique.”
“But the quantity of files potentially at issue in Kavanaugh’s case could be unprecedented. Former officials believe millions of pages of emails and other documents circulated through Kavanaugh’s office during his time as staff secretary. If Senate Democrats insist on receiving every page, the confirmation process could grind to a crawl.”
Ryan May Make Another Run Against Pelosi
“Rep. Tim Ryan is considering taking on House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi again in November despite previously ruling the idea out — the latest turn in the caucus-wide chaos unleashed by Rep. Joe Crowley’s shocking primary loss last month,” Politico reports.
Said Ryan: “The Crowley race changed a lot for a lot of us. There was a lot of assumption that he was going to be moving forward in leadership and so losing that election put everybody in a state of mind to reevaluate what was happening.”
