Democrats Remain Favorites to Take the House

Cook Political Report: “Based on the Republicans’ structural advantages from redistricting and residential patterns, Democrats likely need to win seven to eight percent more votes than the GOP to win the barest possible majority of 218 seats. By that measure, it’s close: today, the RealClearPolitics average of congressional generic ballot polls gives Democrats a seven-point lead, while FiveThirtyEight‘s gives Democrats an eight-point advantage.”

“These fundamentals suggest a photo finish in the House. But in our view, the intensity gap between the parties’ voters is what gives Democrats a slight edge… This heightened Democratic enthusiasm… helps explain why, on average, Democrats have run nine points ahead of their typical shares of the vote in eight special elections held since last April.”

“If the 24 Toss Ups were to split evenly between the parties, Democrats would gain 18 seats, five short of a majority. But that doesn’t take into account that there are 26 GOP-held seats in Lean Republican with strong potential to become Toss Ups, and an additional 28 GOP-held seats in Likely Republican with the potential to become more competitive. In other words, there’s still a lot of upside for Democrats.”