The Senate won’t release its version of the GOP tax bill tomorrow as previously announced by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Axios reports.
“Both chambers are on very tight timelines and trying to strike very difficult policy balances. Delaying introduction of the bill not only gives off the impression that things aren’t going well (whether it’s true or not), but also removes one more day that could have been spent getting the caucus on board with the bill.”
Nate Silver: “While Tuesday’s results may not change the reality of the 2018 outlook all that much, it could change perceptions about it, and that could have some knock-on effects. (Politicians are often like Morning Joe panelists in how they think about elections.) Republicans’ retirement issues may get even worse; Democrats’ recruiting may get even better. Republicans might think twice about how they’re proceeding on tax reform — especially given that their current plans could have negative effects on just the sorts of wealthy coastal suburbs where Republicans performed poorly on Tuesday.”
“And there will be lots of recriminations about the race that Ed Gillespie ran in Virginia, which could change Republicans’ thinking on how they should relate to Trump. Some of this is going to be silly: Gillespie did no worse (and no better) than you’d expect given Trump’s approval rating and Virginia’s blue lean. But if those politicians think Tuesday was a huge game-changing deal, they may begin to act like it and create a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
“It has been a year of accomplishments.”
— Vice President Mike Pence, writing in USA Today.
“A New Jersey politician who shared a meme on Facebook during January’s Women’s March in Washington asking whether the protest would be ‘over in time for them to cook dinner’ is eating his words,” the AP reports.
“A woman who was angered by Republican John Carman’s remarks on Tuesday defeated his bid for a second term as an Atlantic County freeholder.”
Slate: “The biggest political story of the hour is that Republican gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie went down big in Virginia after running a Trump-esque campaign fixated on inflammatory culture-war issues, losing to Democrat Ralph Northam by what looks like it will end up as a nine-point margin. It’s the biggest story of the hour, that is, unless you’re watching Fox News: As observed by political writer Chris Hooks, Donald Trump’s favorite network spent more than 90 minutes in prime time on Tuesday—Election Night!—between discussions of election results.”
Jonathan Chait: “Imagine what the political world would look like for Republicans had Hillary Clinton won the election. Clinton had dragged her dispirited base to the polls by promising a far more liberal domestic agenda than Barack Obama had delivered, but she would have had no means to enact it. As the first president in 28 years to take office without the benefit of a Congress in her own party’s hands, she’d have been staring at a dead-on-arrival legislative agenda, all the low-hanging executive orders having already been picked by her predecessor, and years of scandalmongering hearings already teed up. The morale of the Democratic base, which had barely tolerated the compromises of the Obama era and already fallen into mutual recriminations by 2016, would have disintegrated altogether. The 2018 midterms would be a Republican bloodbath, with a Senate map promising enormous gains to the Republican Party, which would go into the 2020 elections having learned the lessons of Trump’s defeat and staring at full control of government with, potentially, a filibuster-proof Senate majority.”
“Instead, Republicans under Trump are on the verge of catastrophe.”
James Hohamnn: “Tuesday was the best day for Democrats politically since Barack Obama won reelection in 2012. Remember, conservatives scored significant victories in the November 2014, 2015 and 2016 elections. Democrats desperately needed some wins after they went all-in on a House special election in Georgia this spring and lost. Last night, they got them.”
“Voters came out in droves. They braved the rain and the cold to send a message to President Trump. The results across the country represent nothing less than a stinging repudiation of Trump on the first anniversary of his election.”
Politico: “This one was for Donald Trump. Exit polls revealed an unmistakable anti-Trump backlash Tuesday, as Democrats won resounding victories in governors races in Virginia and New Jersey. Majorities of voters in both states disapproved of the job Trump is doing as president, with significant numbers of voters in each state saying Trump was a reason for their vote. And far more of those voters said they made their choice to oppose Trump than to support him.”
“What is unusual about Tuesday night is the extent to which the two races were about Trump. And the stark results cast fresh doubt on the health of Republican majorities in the House and Senate, in addition to gubernatorial races in next year’s midterm elections.”
Mike Allen: “Top Republicans were stunned by the severity of the shellacking, and worry that it will endanger both tax reform and the House majority.”
Politico: “Jubilant Democrats struck a defiant tone after sweeping victories across the country on Tuesday night, led by Democrat Ralph Northam’s surprise pummeling of Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. Surveying their first electoral sweep in half a decade after a soul-crushing 2016 campaign and a desultory start to the Donald Trump era, Democratic leaders reset their expectations for the 2018 midterms.”
“They’re now expecting a fundraising and candidate recruitment surge, powered by grass-roots fury at the Trump administration. While most Democrats stopped short of predicting the party will take the House next year, they noted in Gillespie the failure of a candidate who tried balancing between Trump-style populism and establishment Republicanism.”
New York Times: “Lessons from off-year elections can be overdrawn, but the Virginia race strongly suggests that Republicans running in swing states will have to choose a side rather than try to straddle an uncomfortable line. Mr. Trump’s blunt force, all-or-nothing approach has worked in deeply conservative areas, but Republicans will have trouble replicating that in certain states in the midterms next year when faced with a diverse, highly educated electorate like the one in Virginia.”
Phil Murphy (D) is projected to win the New Jersey governor’s race defeating Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R), who struggled to gain traction in the race.
Newark Star Ledger: “Murphy’s victory over Guadagno, Christie’s lieutenant governor, will usher in a new era of Democratic rule in the Garden State after eight years of Christie, a once-popular Republican who saw his approval rating plummet to historic lows in recent years. “
Ralph Northam (D) has been elected next governor of VIrginia defeating Ed Gillespie (R).
Washington Post: “As the nation’s only competitive governor’s race this year, Virginia’s contest was seen as a measure of whether swing-state Republicans could survive Trump’s unpopularity.”
Feel free to use the comments to discuss other race results as they come in tonight.
Rep. Ted Poe (R-TX) announced he would not seek re-election, CNN reports.
“Poe was diagnosed with leukemia last year, but in his statement Tuesday said he is in good health. In March, he parted ways with the conservative House Freedom Caucus after the group helped tank a Republican repeal of Obamacare.”
Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ) is retiring, NJ Advance Media reports.
“Last year, LoBiondo, 71, crossed party lines and voted with a majority of Democrats against a majority of Republicans 16.9 percent of the time, putting him ninth among all House GOP lawmakers, according to Congressional Quarterly.”
“My donors are basically saying, ‘Get it done or don’t ever call me again.'”
— Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY), quoted by Vox, on the Republican tax reform bill.
Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ) is planning to enter Arizona’s 2018 Senate race, giving Kelli Ward (R) new competition in the GOP primary, the Arizona Republic reports.
“The lawmaker has told her Republican colleagues in Arizona’s delegation that she intends to enter the Senate race, but didn’t indicate when she would formally announce her bid.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.