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All Eyes on Democrats as Budget Vote Nears

February 8, 2018 at 2:57 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “The Senate will go first and is expected to pass the bill with relative ease. One wrinkle emerged Thursday afternoon with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) blocking speedy consideration of the measure until he gets a vote on an amendment to keep Congress under strict budget caps. Still, Senate GOP leaders believe they can work things out with Paul.”

“But the plan could unravel in the House, where conservative opposition is forcing Republican leaders to lean on Democrats for votes as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi digs in with immigration demands.”

Washington Post: “Ryan suggested in a radio interview Thursday that he would be able to deliver a majority of Republicans — about 120 votes — meaning about half of the 193 Democrats might be necessary to pass the deal. That could be a tough sell among House Democrats, who are livid that their demands for protections for ‘dreamers’ — immigrants brought to the United States as children now living in the country illegally — were not made part of the deal.”

USA Today: “With the clock ticking toward a midnight funding deadline, Senate leaders said they could not provide any update about the timing for a vote.”

Trump’s Fed Nomination In Trouble

February 8, 2018 at 2:55 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) “said he will vote against Marvin Goodfriend’s bid to become a member of the Federal Reserve board, a move that could sink the nomination on the Senate floor,” Politico reports.

“Goodfriend, nominated by President Trump, was approved by the Senate Banking Committee in a 13-12 party-line vote, indicating that he is unlikely to receive any Democratic support. With Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) out for health reasons, any Republican ‘no’ vote could defeat his nomination.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

February 8, 2018 at 12:02 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I was haunted by tweets every single day. Like, what is he going to tweet next?”

— Omarosa Manigault, on Celebrity Big Brother, about life in the Trump White House.


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Is This the End of the House Freedom Caucus?

February 8, 2018 at 11:02 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stan Collender: “The House Freedom Caucus, the ultra-conservative group of 30-40 Republicans that pushed former Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) to resign and has often been the bane of current Speaker Paul Ryan’s existence because of its take-no-prisoners attitude, may be completely neutered by the budget deal announced in the Senate yesterday.”

“Indeed, all of HFC’s major reasons for existing at all could be eliminated if the deal is approved.”

Democrats Expand Battleground to 101 GOP Seats

February 8, 2018 at 10:16 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

House Democrats are stepping on the gas, with plans to target 101 Republican-held congressional districts in the midterm elections, NBC News reports.

“The DCCC’s own polling of key districts has been more promising than national trends, showing President Donald Trump underwater not just in the 23 GOP-held districts Clinton won, but also in the more than 60 districts Trump won, and the 11 where retirements have left the seat open.”

“Democrats are now fielding candidates in all but 12 of the 238 districts held by Republicans… The idea is to expand the map as much as possible and hope to ride the potential wave.”

House Intel Republicans Plan to Wall Off Their Aides

February 8, 2018 at 10:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In a sign of increasing partisan hostilities, Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee plan to construct a wall – a physical partition – separating Republican and Democratic staff members in the committee’s secure spaces,” CBS News reports.

“For now, some Republican committee members deny knowing anything about it, while strongly suggesting the division is the brainchild of the committee’s chairman, Devin Nunes (R-CA).”

Ratings for 21 House Seats Shift Towards Democrats

February 8, 2018 at 9:44 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Though Republicans have closed the gap in the generic congressional ballot, the Cook Political Report notes that “most new district-by-district fundraising and polling numbers are downright terrible for Republicans, even in seats previously thought to be safe.”

“This week, we’re shifting our ratings in 21 races towards Democrats. If anything, that still understates Democrats’ potential in individual races. If Democrats win the national House vote by six points (as today’s polls indicate), House control would be a coin flip. But according to our new ratings, if each party were to win an even number of Toss Up races, Democrats would only win 13 or 14 seats — ten shy of the 24 they need.”

GOP Still Favored to Keep Control of Senate

February 8, 2018 at 9:24 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Republicans have better than 50-50 odds to hold control of the U.S. Senate even in the event of a Democratic wave in November.”

“The reason is the map: Including the two independents who caucus with them, the Democrats are defending 26 of the 34 seats being contested this fall, which is the most lopsided Senate map any party has faced in a midterm since 1938. Five of the Democratic seats are in states that Donald Trump won in landslides, and another five are in states he won.”

“Because the map is so good for Republicans, it is possible they will add to their majority even if the electoral environment otherwise breaks against them in other elections, such as those for the U.S. House of Representatives. That said, the Democrats do have a path to a Senate majority, albeit slim.”

Trump Is Setting a Patriotism Trap

February 8, 2018 at 9:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

President Trump is setting a series of “patriotism traps” for his political opponents.

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Democrats In Close Race for California Governor

February 8, 2018 at 8:37 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Institute of California poll in California finds Gavin Newsom (D) and Antonio Villaraigosa (D) in a close race among likely voters in the gubernatorial primary, 23% to 21%, with 24% undecided.  Fewer would vote for Democrat John Chiang (9%), Republican Travis Allen (8%), Republican John Cox (7%), Democrat Delaine Eastin (4%), or Republican Doug Ose (3%).

Meanwhile, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) continues to lead Kevin de León (D) in a U.S. Senate primary, 46% to 17%.

Republicans Completely Reverse Themselves on Deficit

February 8, 2018 at 8:31 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “Republican lawmakers in 2011 brought the U.S. government to the brink of default, refused to raise the debt ceiling, demanded huge spending cuts, and insisted on a constitutional amendment to balance the budget.”

“On Wednesday, they formally broke free from those fiscal principles and announced a plan that would add $500 billion in new spending over two years and suspend the debt ceiling until 2019. This came several months after Republicans passed a tax law that would add more than $1 trillion to the debt over a decade.”

“With all these changes, the annual gap between spending and revenue in 2019 is projected to eclipse $1.1 trillion, up from $439 billion in 2015. And they are expanding the deficit at an unusual time, when the economy is growing and unemployment is low, a dynamic that often leads to shrinking budget gaps.”

Trump’s Allies Use TV to Warn Him Off Mueller Interview

February 8, 2018 at 8:07 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“As Donald Trump’s lawyers continue to negotiate terms of an interview with Special Counsel Robert Mueller, the president’s allies are increasingly trying to warn him against it, using one of the few methods they have — television,” Bloomberg reports.

“Trump’s longtime friends and advisers have grown increasingly concerned that a face-to-face interview with Mueller could derail his presidency and are hoping to catch the president’s ear during his hours of channel-surfing, said one such adviser. In recent weeks, Trump’s outside advisers have gone on Fox News, CNN, and ABC’s “Good Morning America” with almost identical talking points about the risks of a Mueller interview.”

How DeVos Softened Her Message on School Choice

February 8, 2018 at 7:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “A year into her tenure as President Donald Trump’s Education secretary, Betsy DeVos generally steers clear of the words, ‘school choice,’ a phrase she once used often that’s freighted with racial, demographic and religious implications. Instead, she opts for gentler terms such as ‘innovation’ and ‘blended learning,’ and speaks of coming together and ‘finding solutions.’ DeVos has by no means backed off her push to fulfill Trump’s promise to inject $20 billion into expanded private education options for kids.”

“But one of the most divisive figures in Trump’s Cabinet … has figured out how to market that effort differently. Behind the scenes, DeVos met with Frank Luntz, one of the top Republican messaging experts, to figure out how to talk about conservative educational policies without sparking protests from teachers and liberals.”

Is Spending Bill a Signal Ryan Is Out?

February 8, 2018 at 7:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “When Paul Ryan was about to take the speakership from John Boehner, he railed against a package just like this. He took some heat yesterday in a closed Republican meeting from lawmakers who felt cut out by the process by which this bill was put together. He’s now putting this bill on the floor, and urging Republicans to vote yes. There’s a lot of chatter that a man seeking another term as speaker would never put this bill on the floor. At the moment, it’s just that — chatter. Ryan has said he’ll decide on his re-election in the spring after a conversation with his wife.”

White House Faces Big Questions About Rob Porter

February 8, 2018 at 7:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Swan: “Colleagues tell me they can’t reconcile the Rob Porter they know (consummate gentleman) with the Rob Porter they’re reading about, with a police report and photos of a black eye by a former wife.”

“The West Wing couldn’t have handled it worse, including over-the-top statements of support for Porter before all the facts had come out.”

“The big question: Who in the West Wing knew about Porter’s past, uncovered months ago by the FBI while investigating Porter for a security clearance?”

The Washington Post has a video interview with Porter’s ex-wife Jennie Willoughby.

Congress Attempts to Pass a Two-Year Spending Bill

February 8, 2018 at 7:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Yes, this bill averts a shutdown, but that’s only a tiny sliver of what it does. It sets the stage to boost spending by roughly $300 billion over the next few years. It kicks in another at least $80 billion in disaster spending — even most Texans seem pleased, at the moment. And it suspends the debt limit until March 2019 — basically, telling Congress it can spend whatever amount of money it wants between now and then. That’s a big win for Republicans who don’t want to have to vote on the debt limit again before the midterm election.”

“The Senate is expected to take up — and pass — this bill in the early afternoon. They’ll probably pass this bill with 70-plus votes, and then leave town for the weekend.”

“Per Usual, the House is where this gets tricky. In order for this to pass, it will need to attract significant support from Democrats and Republicans alike. On the Republican side: we’ve heard estimates that anywhere from 120 to 150 Republicans will vote yes (the House has 238 Republicans). That would mean that, on the low end, roughly 70 Democrats would need to vote yes. (There are 193 Democrats.)”

Quote of the Day

February 8, 2018 at 7:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I think confidence is silent and insecurity is loud. America is the most powerful country in all of human history, everybody knows it, and we don’t need to show it off.”

— Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA), quoted by Politico, disagreeing with President Trump’s idea of a military parade in Washington, D.C.

Trump Plans New Project In Dominican Republic

February 8, 2018 at 7:01 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“For President Trump, Haiti may be a ‘shithole.’ But on the other side of the island is a country that he clearly thinks could be a goldmine — and a potential windfall for his family’s business empire. The Trump Organization is close to an agreement in the Dominican Republic with a developer to partner on a project on the east coast of the island,” Fast Company reports.

“That’s despite Trump’s promise to avoid any new overseas deals while in office, which was intended to avoid potential conflicts of interest such as foreign governments and companies attempting to win favor with the Trump administration.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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