A new Washington Post-Schar School poll finds that voters who will decide control of the U.S. House said President Trump and health care were two of the most important factors as they chose their candidates in the midterm election.

“More than four in 10 who cast early or absentee ballots or voted early Tuesday mentioned Trump or health care as the most important or second-most important factor for their vote, the preliminary results showed. The economy and immigration were close behind, receiving mention from over 3 in 10 voters in the results.”

“Roughly 8 in 10 voters rated the economy positively, after months of job and wage growth, but even so, a small majority said they thought the country was headed in the wrong direction.”

The New York Times has its infamous “dials” back for the 2018 midterm elections, including a House and Senate forecast.

They should begin updating between 7:30 and 8 p.m. ET.

Aaron Blake: “Election night is long — sometimes very long. Sometimes it lingers for weeks or even months. And even longtime analysts like yours truly have a difficult time processing the results of 435 House races and 33-35 Senate races, in real time, to figure out what it all means.”

“One method I’ve always found helpful is to zero in on a few key races — ones that are early in the night, representative of the broader electoral battle, and/or might signal a wave for either party (in this case, the Democrats).”

Here are some of those races: IN-Sen, FL-Sen, KY-6, GA-6, VA-7

Ryan Lizza: “What if the darkest aspects of Trumpism—the racist appeals, the contempt for truth and facts, the assault on the press—not only survive a midterm correction, but are bolstered by it?”

New York Times: “Nevada polls recently have shown Dean Heller and the Democratic nominee, Rep. Jacky Rosen, trading off in the lead; Arizona polls have shown a neck-and-neck race between the Democrat, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, and the Republican, Rep. Martha McSally. The mere fact that the Republican Senate candidates haven’t put away the race in those two states has been enough to lead some Democrats to think that Tuesday’s election could lead to a very late night, with the East Coast waiting for the results out West to see who controls the Senate.”

FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 19% chance of winning control of the Senate.

The Atlantic: “Whatever happens on Tuesday, there’s not much Democrats can do to assume control in Washington. They’re running as a check on Donald Trump’s presidency, playing defense, positioning themselves for the long term, at best. Take the House, and even the Senate, and it’s still about playing to a stalemate.”

“But if results break in their favor on Tuesday, Democrats could take control of state governments that have been in Republican control since 2010 or longer. That year, the GOP picked up six governor seats in what was considered a wave of its own. Democrats are expected to pick up at least that many across the country this year.”

“The result would rework all sorts of state policy, provide a massive injection of talent to the Democratic bench, force pundits to think anew about what the country wants, and through changes to gerrymandering, reshape the next decade in terms of who gets elected to state legislatures and the House.”

Christie Aschwanden: “A 2006 study looking at gubernatorial elections in the U.S. between 1990 and 2005 found that voter turnout increased when the polls were close. Interestingly, people seemed to overestimate the probability of casting a pivotal vote when their candidate had a slight lead. (More evidence that people often misunderstand probabilities.)”

A new Gallup poll finds that Democrats hold an 11-point lead over Republicans in House races among likely voters, 54% to 43%.

Nate Silver: “We’ve frozen our forecasts, the final model runs are whirring away now. And we’ve also frozen our generic ballot average. It wound up at D+8.7. That’s not a good number for Republicans. The Democratic lead ticked up from about 8 percentage points to 9-ish on the last set of polls we entered before freezing everything.”

“By late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, officials from both parties say we should know whether or not the Democrats have won the House. Until then, everyone is on edge — and the tension is only going to get worse through the long election night,” Mike Allen reports.

“Democrats remain ‘cautiously optimistic,’ one strategist told me, especially ‘after living through 2014 and 2016’ when Democrats had high hopes but suffered major losses. President Trump is sounding the alarm by disputing CNN polls and warning of potential illegal voting.”

Said one national Republican operative: “It’s going to be a bad night in the House.”