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GOP Wonders If Trump Does More Harm than Good

June 29, 2017 at 7:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “It was a platform most politicians can only hope for: A captivated, 6,000-person crowd and more than an hour of live, prime-time television coverage to hype the Republican vision for a new health care system. But when President Donald Trump got around to talking about the Republican plan – about 15 minutes into his speech – he was wildly off message. Instead of preaching party lines about getting the government out of Americans’ health decisions and cutting costs, he declared: ‘Add some money to it!’

“The moment captured a major dilemma for Republicans as they look for ways to jumpstart their stalled health care overhaul. A master salesman, Trump has an inimitable ability to command attention, and that could be used to bolster Americans’ support for Republican efforts and ramp up pressure on wavering lawmakers. But some lawmakers and congressional aides privately bemoan his thin grasp of the bill’s principles, and worry that his difficulty staying on message will do more harm than good.”

CNN: The impulsive president meets the world’s most deliberative body.

Tillerson Blows Up at Top White House Aide

June 29, 2017 at 7:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s frustrations with the White House have been building for months. Last Friday, they exploded. The normally laconic Texan unloaded on Johnny DeStefano, the head of the presidential personnel office, for torpedoing proposed nominees to senior State Department posts and for questioning his judgment,” Politico reports.

“Tillerson also complained that the White House was leaking damaging information about him to the news media, according to a person familiar with the meeting. Above all, he made clear that he did not want DeStefano’s office to ‘have any role in staffing’ and ‘expressed frustration that anybody would know better’ than he about who should work in his department — particularly after the president had promised him autonomy to make his own decisions and hires.”

“The episode stunned other White House officials gathered in chief of staff Reince Priebus’ office, leaving them silent as Tillerson raised his voice.”

Senate GOP Makes Changes to Health Care Bill

June 29, 2017 at 7:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Senate Republicans and the White House have agreed to add at least $45 billion to their Obamacare repeal bill to address the opioid crisis and are near agreement on allowing consumers to use Health Savings Account money to pay for their premiums,” Politico reports.

“The additions come as Senate Republicans are scrambling to get to 50 votes on their health care legislation. Both additions are expected to help get additional Republicans on board – opioid funding could help win over moderates and HSAs for conservatives. But there is no guarantee the language will do enough to substantially improve the bill’s prospects, Republican sources said.”


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Trump Rips Media, Mocks Pelosi at First 2020 Fundraiser

June 29, 2017 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump, “facing dimming approval ratings and a stalled legislative agenda, rolled out his greatest hits on Wednesday evening – ripping into CNN, assailing House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and hailing his party’s string of special election wins,” Politico reports.

“Before a rapt audience of 300 supporters, major GOP donors and party leaders attending the first fundraiser of his 2020 reelection campaign at the Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C., the commander in chief returned to his comfort zone.”

Pentagon Plan to Defeat ISIS Looks Like Obama’s Plan

June 29, 2017 at 6:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Pentagon is putting the final touches on a promised new counter-Islamic State strategy for Syria and Iraq, and it looks very much like the one the Obama administration pursued,” the Washington Post reports.

“The core of the strategy is to deny territory to the militants and ultimately defeat them, and to stay out of Syria’s civil war pitting the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad, Iran and Russia against domestic opposition forces. The two fights in that country have come into increasingly close proximity in recent months, and there have been clashes.”

“Military officials from Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on down have emphasized in recent days that they are not looking for a fight with the regime or the Iranians. That has put them at odds with White House officials who have expressed concern about Iranian expansion across a new battlefield in Syria’s southern desert.”

Key Republicans Want to Scrap Tax Cuts for Wealthy

June 28, 2017 at 6:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Several Senate Republicans began to question whether their health-care bill should repeal a tax on high-income Americans imposed by Obamacare when the legislation would scale back subsidies for the poor,” Bloomberg reports.

“Scaling back the tax cuts could provide a path to winning over key moderate senators who have recoiled at the soaring premiums and deductibles for millions of low-income people as scored by the CBO, and the estimated 22 million fewer people who would have insurance in a decade. Meanwhile, conservatives have pushed to wipe out all of the taxes, though senators like Ted Cruz have not insisted every tax cut remain as part of an overall deal. Conservatives have been focused more on cutting regulations to lower premiums.”

The Entire Trump Agenda Is Now at Risk

June 28, 2017 at 2:31 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ryan Lizza: “The GOP has adopted a major—even radical—agenda: transforming a massive sector of the economy, slashing taxes and rewriting the entire tax code, passing a budget that would dramatically reduce the size of government, and, in the middle of all of that, raising the debt limit. They have a plan to accomplish almost all of it before the end of the year, with minimal transparency, and without relying on a single Democratic vote. But if health-care reform goes down this summer, the rest of the plan may sink with it.”

“For obscure parliamentary reasons, Republicans can’t move on with the rest of their wish list until they pass the health-care bill. And those prospects are not looking good.”

Voters Overwhelmingly Reject GOP Health Plan

June 28, 2017 at 2:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll finds just 16% of Americans approve of the Republican health care plan to replace Obamacare, while 58% disapprove.

If a lawmaker votes for the Republican plan, 46% of voters are less likely to support their reelection, with 17% more likely and 33% who say the health care vote won’t matter in their decision.

Said pollster Tim Malloy: “Call it a dressed up retread of the last GOP healthcare plan, or simply a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Americans aren’t buying this latest version of the plan to kill Obamacare. And the dismissal comes with the dire warning: If you vote for this one, you may not be around to vote for the next version.”

Study Finds GOP Bill Will Cause 208K Deaths

June 28, 2017 at 1:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Congressional Budget Office projects that if the Senate Republicans’ health care bill becomes law, 14 million Americans will lose their health insurance in 2018, and, by 2026, 22 million would lose coverage,” Vox reports.

“Drawing on that work, we estimate that if the Senate bill becomes law, 22,900 excess deaths will occur in 2020 — and the figure will grow over time. 26,500 extra deaths will take place in 2026. Over the next decade, we estimate that a total of 208,500 unnecessary deaths will occur if the law is passed.”

Trump Says Health Care Vote Will Be ‘Very Close’

June 28, 2017 at 1:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump predicted that Senate Republicans are “going to get at least very close” to passing legislation to repeal and replace Obamacare, adding that “I think we’re going to get it over the line,” Politico reports.

Trump Will Postpone Filing Complaint Against Comey

June 28, 2017 at 1:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump’s lawyers will postpone filing a complaint against former FBI Director James Comey with the Justice Department, according to a person familiar with the decision — a bid to stop antagonizing the special counsel who’s investigating ties between the president’s campaign and Russian officials,” Bloomberg reports.

“The president’s lawyers still intend to file a complaint at some point, the person familiar with the matter said…. The delay is a professional courtesy to the special counsel, Robert Mueller, and a signal that the White House understands he needs space to do his job.”

Just 12% Support GOP Health Plan

June 28, 2017 at 11:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll finds just 12% of of Americans approve of the Senate Republican health care plan.

Meanwhile, a 53% majority say Congress should either leave Obamacare alone or work to fix its problems while keeping its framework intact.

“But the dilemma for the GOP is this: Eight in 10 Republicans support repeal, and close to a third say the law should be repealed even if a replacement health care plan isn’t ready yet.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

June 28, 2017 at 9:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“It’s going to be very difficult to get me to a yes.”

— Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV), quoted by the Nevada Independent at a town hall meeting on the GOP health care plan.

Despite Trump’s Claims, Obamacare Isn’t Collapsing

June 28, 2017 at 8:42 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Congressional Budget Office: “Although premiums have been rising under current law, most subsidized enrollees purchasing health insurance coverage in the nongroup market are largely insulated from increases in premiums because their out-of-pocket payments for premiums are based on a percentage of their income; the government pays the difference between that percentage and the premiums for a reference plan… Nevertheless, a small number of people live in areas of the country that have limited participation by insurers in the nongroup market under current law.”

Trump Loses Ground with Independent Voters

June 28, 2017 at 8:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds that just 37% of Americans approve of the job President Trump is doing, while 51% disapprove.

Key finding: “The most pronounced swing the poll found was among independents. Over the past four months, their approval of the president has dissipated. In February, 40% of independents said they approved of the job Trump was doing, with 51% disapproving. Four months later in June, just 31% say they approve of the president with 59% of independents disapproving — a 17 point net-negative drop.”

Secrecy Backfires on McConnell

June 28, 2017 at 8:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

James Hohmann: “Mitch McConnell miscalculated. The Senate majority leader believed that the blowback for keeping his health-care bill secret would be less than the blowback for negotiating it in public.”

“But the Kentuckian misread the degree to which members of his own conference wanted a seat at the table. With little margin for error, he also had too much confidence in his ability to hammer out a compromise that could win over both hardliners who want full repeal and moderates who want to protect Medicaid expansion…”

“Another consequence of the secretive process is that almost no Republican senators have been out there trying to sell the bill – to the public or to each other. Dozens of GOP lawmakers who privately planned to vote for the motion to proceed today made a public show of saying that they were undecided and still studying the proposal. They avoided local reporters and put out opaque statements that gave themselves plenty of wiggle room, as they waited to see how things shook out. This meant that almost no Republicans put out statements defending the measure on Monday night when the Congressional Budget Office announced that millions of fewer Americans would have insurance if it passes. That ensured one-sided coverage in the press, which in turn made it even harder for members to justify supporting the bill.”

The GOP Health Care Bill Isn’t Dead Yet

June 28, 2017 at 8:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rick Klein: “If this was a make-or-break moment, what the break part looks like can lead to all sorts of directions. It’s easy enough to imagine enough GOP tweaks and goodies to get to 50 Senate votes in a few weeks, with the conservative holdouts getting just enough of what they want to get health care passed. It’s also easy to foresee a restless, angry summer of town halls that makes it unlikely that anyone budges, leaving a tense status quo where presidential tweets stir the pot but not any action. But is it ridiculous to suggest there might be a moment for actual governing? Probably, but it doesn’t have to be that way.”

“With Democrats’ still backing Obamacare, and Republicans in the still-unfamiliar position of governing, every political leader has a stake in the health care laws, just as all their constituents did already. There are changes – even major ones – that could pass with supermajorities if slogans are just filtered out of the congressional water. Even Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is talking about it as a backup option, though he’s making his declaration – ‘we’ll have to sit down withSchumer’ – sound more like a threat than a roadmap.”

First Read: “Under any other Senate GOP leader, we’d say that the Republican health care effort is dead. But Mitch McConnell isn’t any other GOP leader, and if someone can find a way to bridge the Rand Pauls/Mike Lees/Ted Cruzes with the Susan Collinses/Dean Hellers/Lisa Murkowskis, it’s McConnell. All of that said, time isn’t on McConnell’s side. As a Senate Republican crafting the legislation told us, more time doesn’t make passage easier. That’s why McConnell tried to ram through the legislation this week.”

Warren Urges Democrats to Back Single-Payer Plan

June 28, 2017 at 7:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) told the Wall Street Journal that Democrats on the ballot in the next two federal elections should back a national single-payer health-care plan.

Said Warren: “President Obama tried to move us forward with health-care coverage by using a conservative model that came from one of the conservative think tanks that had been advanced by a Republican governor in Massachusetts. Now it’s time for the next step. And the next step is single payer.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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