A new Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania shows Mitt Romney in a dead heat with President Obama at 45% each in the key swing state.

Key finding: “If you dig in on the undecided voters only 24% of them approve of Obama’s job performance to 70% who disapprove. They may not be completely sold on Romney yet but for the most part if you don’t approve of the incumbent President, you’re not going to vote for him. If those folks really had to make a decision today it’s likely they’d move in Romney’s direction and hand him the state.”

Michael Tomasky looks at a new study that shows how President Obama might be able to use demographics to win reelection despite a lousy economy.

“The paper is The Path to 270: Demographics Versus Economics in the 2012 Election by Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin of the Center for American Progress. You can probably figure out from the subtitle that the basic story is that demography favors Obama, while the likely underlying economic picture (i.e., still bleak) favors whoever is running against him. But the deeper story here is this: Obama isn’t going to get his 2008 levels of the white vote. But he can’t quite absorb white-vote totals that look like 2010. And he is going to have to fight hard, and smart, to keep them closer to the former than the latter.”

Ryan Lizza takes issue with the blatant misuse of a quote by President Obama in Mitt Romney’s new ad running in New Hampshire.

“This is one of those cases where a candidate has put out something that is demonstrably false. If a journalist or writer quoted someone in such an intellectually dishonest way, you would never trust the person’s writing again. And yet this episode is being reported by some as a clever tactic by the Romney camp to spark a debate about the ad’s accuracy that will serve to highlight its overall message that Obama has been a failure. (See, it worked!)”

A new Mellman Group (D) poll in North Dakota shows former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) leading Rep. Rick Berg (R-ND) in the U.S. Senate Race, 47% to 42%.

“While we meet here tonight, the Republicans are having a debate across town. I’ve watched a number of them, and I’ve got to be honest, I never thought I’d say this — I’m beginning to miss Sarah Palin’s insights.”

— Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D), quoted by Politico.

The Republican presidential candidates hold their 11th presidential debate tonight. It will be focused entirely on foreign policy and the first since Newt Gingrich took over the national lead in most recent polls.

An interesting behind the scenes video shows how the debate came together.

The debate begins at 8:00 pm ET and will be aired on CNN.

[Read more…]

The Republican-sponsored attempt to change how Pennsylvania’s electoral votes are counted in next year’s presidential election “appears to be running out of steam,” the AP reports.

Said Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett (R), a key supporter of the idea: “I see no movement on it. I’m not going to push for movement, but I still support it.”

A new Polling Company survey in South Carolina shows Newt Gingrich leading the GOP presidential field with 31%, followed by Herman Cain at 17%, Mitt Romney at 16% and Rick Perry at 6%.

No other candidate had more than 5%.

President Obama’s “body man” Reggie Love, who is leaving the White House to go to business school, was asked by ESPN what does Obama do that makes his skin crawl?

Said Love: “The thing that used to kill me is that the guy loves to ride around with the AC off in the summertime. And I get hot. I start sweating. And I’m like, it’s 80 degrees in this car. I’m going to pass out.”

Just as President Obama visits New Hampshire, Mitt Romney runs his first advertisement in the state and it’s all about the president.

First Read: “Strikingly, Romney’s first ad is NEGATIVE. It blames Obama on the
economy and then pivots (with soaring string music) to what Romney wants
to do… With grainy video, ominous music and President Obama with an echo, Romney’s ad uses this seemingly damning line from Obama: ‘If we keep talking about the economy, we’re going to lose.'”

But, as the New York Times points out, the line, “which is perhaps the spot’s most devastating moment, is also the one that seems to be the most taken out of context. In fact, at the time, Mr. Obama was referring to something that an aide to his then opponent, Senator John McCain of Arizona, had said in reference to the McCain campaign — not Mr. Obama, then or now.”

[Read more…]

A new Suffolk University/7NEWS poll in New Hampshire finds Mitt Romney way ahead of the GOP field with 41%, followed by Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 14%.

All other candidates were in single digits, including Jon Huntsman at 9%, Herman Cain at 8%, Rick Santorum at 3%, Rick Perry at 2%, and Michele Bachmann at 1%.

Notes pollster David Paleologos: “Every Republican candidate that surges in the national polls hits a firewall in New Hampshire. We’ve seen this with surges from Bachmann, Perry, Cain and now Gingrich. A Romney loss here is highly improbable, and Romney’s best insurance policy in New Hampshire is Ron Paul, whose fixed support takes 14 percent off the table.”

As the Republican presidential prospects arrive in Washington, D.C. for
tonight’s CNN debate focused on national security, President Obama will
travel to New Hampshire to push Congress to extend the payroll tax cut,
according to The Hill.

“The
White House brushed off suggestions the president’s trip to the Granite
State, which holds the nation’s first presidential primary in seven
weeks, was being made with an eye toward 2012… New Hampshire will be
an important swing state next year. Obama won it by nine points in 2008,
but Romney is practically a favorite son. He was governor of
neighboring Massachusetts, owns a summer home in the Granite State and
is campaigning heavily to win its primary… As it stands, the payroll
tax cut and other provisions, like a patch for the Alternative Minimum
Tax and benefits for the unemployed, are set to expire at year’s end.”

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Newt Gingrich jumping to the front of the GOP presidential field with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22% and Herman Cain at 14%.

Key finding: 48% of Republican voters say that that among all GOP contenders he has the knowledge and experience necessary to be president, compared to Romney’s 22%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “When it comes to the Republican horse race, the scenario hasn’t changed much over the past few months – just the players. Speaker Newt Gingrich is the latest GOP contender to rise to the top, powered by conservatives who remain skeptical about Gov. Mitt Romney.”

Meanwhile, in general election match ups, President Obama edges Romney, 45% to 44%, beats Gingrich, 49% to 40%, and crushes Cain, 50% to 37%.

Fox News obtained a copy of Donald Trump’s forthcoming book, Time To Get Tough, in which he writes he was so close to running for president that he had already prepared to disclose his finances, something many suggested he would never do.

In an afterword section, Trump claims a net worth of just over $7 billion, of which $3 billion he calls “brand value.”