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U.K. Triggers Start of Brexit Process

March 29, 2017 at 8:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The U.K. officially began the process of exiting from the European Union, “starting on an unprecedented path to reshape its relationship with its closest allies in some of the most complex negotiations the country has ever undertaken,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

New York Times: “With this step, Mrs. May enters what William Hague, a former foreign secretary, called ‘the most complex divorce ever in history,’ with limited leverage, having made clear that establishing control of immigration takes priority over membership in the European Union’s single market or customs union.”

Washington Post: “The talks will encompass a dizzying array of subjects, including trade terms, immigration rules, financial regulations and, of course, money. Britain joined the group that became the European Union in 1973, so decades of ties, pacts and arrangements are part of the complicated unraveling. For both sides, the stakes are enormous.”

Why Democrats Have a Shot in Georgia’s Special Election

March 29, 2017 at 7:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “Start with the money. Mr. Ossoff, a 30-year-old first-time candidate, has benefited from timing. He was basically the only Democrat seeking federal office at a moment when Democratic energy was surging and when progressives were looking to ‘do something.'”

“Mr. Ossoff probably would not have raised nearly as much money if he’d been competing for attention with 434 other races. His fund-raising tally is better than that of 96 percent of the congressional challengers who raised more than $100,000 in 2016, and there’s still time for him to move up the list.”

“Instead, it’s the Republicans who are struggling to coalesce. They have 11 candidates on the ballot, with none emerging as the obvious favorite, although former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel, the businessman Bob Gray and state senator Judson Hill are considered among the strongest contenders. Whoever advances to a runoff (assuming anyone does) will have only two months to coalesce support and raise funds with the benefit of party unity.”

First Read: “It most likely will go to a June 20 runoff if no one gets more than 50% of the vote on April 18, but there is a chance that Ossoff… could get close to that percentage.”

White House Official Knew of Nunes Bombshell

March 29, 2017 at 7:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ryan Lizza: “Last Monday morning, shortly before the start of the hearing, a senior White House official told me, ‘You’ll see the setting of the predicate. That’s the thing to watch today.’ He suggested that I read a piece in The Hill about incidental collection. The article posited that if ‘Trump or his advisors were speaking directly to foreign individuals who were the target of U.S. spying during the election campaign, and the intelligence agencies recorded Trump by accident, it’s plausible that those communications would have been collected and shared amongst intelligence agencies.'”

“The White House clearly indicated to me that it knew Nunes would highlight this issue. ‘It’s backdoor surveillance where it’s not just incidental, it’s systematic,’ the White House official said. ‘Watch Nunes today.'”

Jonathan Swan: “With the credibility of his Russia investigation under question — even from Republicans — Nunes needs to prove he hasn’t colluded with the Trump administration. Lizza’s reporting surely doesn’t help.”

Republicans Desperate for Win on Gorsuch

March 29, 2017 at 7:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “McConnell’s attempt to buck up his GOP ranks, relayed by three sources in attendance, underscores the high stakes of the Gorsuch battle as the Senate barrels toward a likely nuclear showdown next week: His confirmation is, to put it mildly, a can’t-lose for Republicans.”

“That was true after Senate Republicans waged a yearlong blockade of Merrick Garland that positioned the GOP to pick someone else now. But the spectacular collapse of the Obamacare repeal effort last week makes Gorsuch all the more urgent for President Donald Trump and reeling Hill Republicans.”

Trump Freezes Out Schumer

March 29, 2017 at 7:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “The Trump-Schumer relationship was supposed to have been one of Washington’s most intriguing this year. Instead, they’ve had virtually no relationship at all, with zero one-on-one meetings or even private conversations on the phone since Trump took the oath of office.”

“After Trump’s spectacular failure to advance health care legislation last week among his fellow Republicans, the president has suggested that he’s open to rekindling his relationship with congressional Democrats. But lawmakers and strategists wonder whether Trump missed his best shot at a productive relationship, particularly with Schumer, as freshly emboldened Democrats push to define Trump as a failed president.”

Republicans Stick with Trump Despite Health Bill Failure

March 29, 2017 at 7:09 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new CBS News poll finds President Trump’s overall job approval is at 40%, underpinned by continuing strong support from Republicans who don’t appear to blame him for the failed health care bill.

“Republicans surveyed pointed to an unpopular bill — or the Democrats — as the reason the Republican health care effort to repeal and replace Obamacare failed in Congress, not the president’s approach to meeting one his hallmark campaign promises.”

The Only Staffer Trump Can’t Really Fire

March 29, 2017 at 7:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Jared Kushner has been a power player able to avoid much of the harsh scrutiny that comes with working in the White House. But this week he’s found that even the president’s son-in-law takes his turn in the spotlight,” the AP reports.

“In a matter of days, Kushner, a senior Trump adviser, drew headlines for leaving Washington for a ski vacation while a signature campaign promise fell apart. The White House then confirmed he had volunteered to be interviewed before the Senate intelligence committee about meetings with Russian officials. At the same time, the White House announced he’ll helm a new task force that some in the West Wing have suggested carries little real influence.”

David Ignatius: “Kushner is apprenticing for the role of Trump’s Henry Kissinger. He’s the secret emissary, the evaluator of talent, the whisperer of confidential advice. He’s the only person in this White House who Trump can’t fire, really. All these qualities strike me as beneficial, so long as Kushner uses them to make Trump a better president who learns how to compromise and govern.”

For members: How Many Roles Does Jared Kushner Have?

Trump Fuels Democratic Fundraising

March 29, 2017 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Democrats are on a torrid fundraising pace in the first months of the Donald Trump era, powered by enraged small donors who are plowing millions of dollars worth of online contributions into campaign and committee treasuries,” Politico reports.

“A Politico analysis of new federal disclosures suggests many Democratic Senate incumbents — particularly those who have been most outspoken in their resistance to Trump — are on a trajectory to raise more money online than ever before in a non-election year. That could help level the fundraising playing field at a time when Republicans are poised to reap the financial rewards of holding all the levers of power in Washington.”

Democrats Force More Votes on Trump’s Tax Returns

March 28, 2017 at 8:33 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The House and its tax-writing committee voted on Tuesday to block Democratic resolutions demanding President Trump’s tax returns,” The Hill reports.

“The votes were latest of many Democratic attempts to get Congress to request Trump’s tax returns. While none of the attempts have been successful so far, Democrats are pushing the topic to force Republicans to go on the record about Trump.”

Trump Business Network Reached Russian Mob

March 28, 2017 at 6:40 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“To expand his real estate developments over the years, Donald Trump, his company and partners repeatedly turned to wealthy Russians and oligarchs from former Soviet republics — several allegedly connected to organized crime, according to a USA Today review of court cases, government and legal documents and an interview with a former federal prosecutor.”

“The president and his companies have been linked to at least 10 wealthy former Soviet businessmen with alleged ties to criminal organizations or money laundering.”

Schock Staffer Was FBI Informant

March 28, 2017 at 6:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The FBI wired a congressional staffer and turned him into a secret informant during its investigation into former Rep. Aaron Schock’s (R-IL) alleged misuse of government and campaign funds,” The Hill reports.

“The staffer, who is not named, secretly taped conversations with Schock and people working in his office while Schock was still a member of Congress, according to a 30-page motion and attached memo that cites documents from the court discovery process.”

“Schock was indicted last year on 24 counts related to alleged misuse of government and campaign funds. His trial is set to begin this summer.”

Manafort-Linked Accounts on Cyprus Raised Red Flag

March 28, 2017 at 6:35 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A bank in Cyprus investigated accounts associated with President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, for possible money-laundering,” two banking sources with direct knowledge of his businesses here told NBC News.

“Manafort — whose ties to a Russian oligarch close to President Vladimir Putin are under scrutiny — was associated with at least 15 bank accounts and 10 companies on Cyprus, dating back to 2007, the sources said. At least one of those companies was used to receive millions of dollars from a billionaire Putin ally, according to court documents.”

Schiff Says Yates Would Have Testified on Flynn Cover Up

March 28, 2017 at 1:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, “says a hearing set for Tuesday with former acting Attorney General Sally Yates — which was canceled by Republicans — would have featured explosive testimony on Michael Flynn’s efforts to ‘cover up’ his conversations with Russia’s ambassador,” Politico reports.

GOP Leaders Say Obamacare Repeal Is Back on Agenda

March 28, 2017 at 12:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“House Republican leaders and the White House, under extreme pressure from conservative activists, have restarted negotiations on legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act, with House leaders declaring that Democrats were celebrating the law’s survival prematurely,” the New York Times reports.

Said Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI): “We’re not going to retrench into our corners or put up dividing lines.”

David Nather: “Their comments confirmed that this is mostly an exercise in showing their supporters that they’re not giving up — and maybe giving conservative or moderate holdouts some time to reconsider their position.”

Why Democrats Might Want Nunes to Stay Put

March 28, 2017 at 12:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA) is in the middle of a firestorm he created in what appears to be a clumsy attempt to shield President Trump from his own committee’s investigation of Russian influence on the Trump campaign.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) excoriated Nunes in an AP article:

“What Congressman Nunes did made it clear that we need a special prosecutor, we need an independent commission… Whatever credibility he and his House committee might have had he burned in a giant bonfire on the front lawn of the White House when he ran over to leak to Donald Trump what was going on in that investigation.”

The committee’s ranking Democrat, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), called for Nunes to recuse himself from the investigation.

But as Warren, Schiff and Democratic leaders know, it might be best to actually keep Nunes right where he is. Calling for his resignation is often the best way to get a politician to stay put.

That said, the smoke around Nunes has quickly turned to fire. He was a member of the Trump transition team that is at least partially under investigation by his own committee and he admitted that he shared secret information with the White House and not with others on his committee. The longer Nunes remains in place, the easier it is to brand any GOP investigation a cover up.

However, if Nunes is forced to recuse himself, the Republican in charge of the investigation would likely by Rep. Michael Conway (R-TX), who could still protect the president without having the same conflicts as Nunes.

The real goal for Democrats is not sidelining Nunes, it’s the formation of an independent commission to investigate the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia. That case is much stronger the longer Nunes continues to lead the investigation.

Bonus Quote of the Day

March 28, 2017 at 12:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The problem that he’s created is he’s gone off on a lark by himself, sort of an Inspector Clouseau investigation.”

— Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by Politico, on House Intelligence Committe Chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA).

Tax Reform Will Be a Nightmare

March 28, 2017 at 11:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Atlantic: “America’s health-care industry is roughly one-sixth of the economy, or about $3 trillion. U.S. federal tax revenue is roughly one-sixth of the economy, or about $3 trillion. Health care is a complex national cross-subsidy, where, for example, the healthy support the sick. Taxes are a national cross-subsidy, where, for example, workers support retirees. With health care, Americans interact with with an amorphous institution, with a maze of entrenched interests, in which they ultimately just want access to an excellent bundle of services at an affordable price. With the federal government, Americans interact with … okay, I think you get the point.”

“Still, it’s possible to sympathize with the White House’s enthusiasm for tax reform. After a stinging defeat with the American Health Care Act, President Trump and Republicans are looking for an easy win. But they may soon discover that tax reform is the opposite of easy, and impossible to win.”

Washington Post: “Trump is about two weeks away from discovering how complicated tax reform can be.”

For members: Why Tax Reform May Already Be Dead

Unbelievable

March 28, 2017 at 11:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Out later this year: Unbelievable: My Front-Row Seat to the Craziest Campaign in American History by Katy Tur.