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Did Trump Win a Mandate?

November 9, 2016 at 1:34 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Chait: “Last night, Paul Ryan, jubilant with the prospect that his long dream of dismantling the state may be finally at hand, called the election ‘a repudiation of the status quo of failed liberal progressive policies.’ This morning, going further, he insisted Trump ‘just earned a mandate.’ The rule of law entitles Ryan and his party to exercise the power they have won. But Ryan is seeking something more — the deference of a party that is seen as embodying the will of the people. He is not entitled to that.”

Trump’s election cannot be called a decision by the voters to repudiate the liberal status quo because, for one thing, it was not a decision by the voters at all. The voters supported Clinton over Trump. The decision was made by the Electoral College, which as a matter of opinion can be called archaic, and as a matter of objective fact can be called anti-democratic. Again, the rules are the rules. But it remains the case that Ryan and his party have power not because of the will of the voters but despite it.”

A Party Without a Leader

November 9, 2016 at 1:08 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Hillary Clinton’s stunning loss in the presidential race Tuesday night doesn’t just leave Democrats without a president in January; it leaves them without an obvious party leader or path forward as a party,” the Washington Post reports.

“Now the party begins the difficult task of trying to pick up the pieces and figure out exactly who it is and what it wants to be over the next two or four years.”

Enthusiasm Is More Important Than Analytics

November 9, 2016 at 1:03 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Amy Walter: “Clinton had a sophisticated analytics shop. Yet, as I watched this election unfold I was reminded of a statement by GOP pollster Glen Bolger in 2014, he said you can’t win on turnout if you are losing on message. Exit polls showed that the number one candidate quality that mattered most to voters was ‘Can bring change’ at 39 percent. Trump won those voters with 83 percent. Enthusiasm beats analytics every time.”


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There Were Plenty of Signs

November 9, 2016 at 8:35 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

I’ve moved a piece I wrote for members last March outside the paywall: How Donald Trump Broke Political Science.

The Polls, Forecasts and Political Scientists Were All Wrong

November 9, 2016 at 8:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

NBC News: “The polls were wrong — all of them. So were the experts, the political consultants and the seasoned officials in both parties who predicted Donald Trump would lead his party to ruin. So were the markets, which had anticipated a Hillary Clinton victory and crashed overnight as her electoral firewall caught ablaze. So was every living president and past presidential nominee of both parties, save Bob Dole, all of whom opposed Trump. So was this reporter and so many like him — and Trump told me as much.”

“Even the GOP polling numbers and analytics we were privy to didn’t show Trump winning. The biggest mistake we made was viewing what seemed to be a very stable race in the polls (with Clinton holding a durable lead), but what ultimately turned into anything but.”

Jake Tapper, on CNN:  “It’s going to put the polling industry out of business. It’s going to put the voter projection industry out of business.”

Trump Broke Every Rule on the Way to Victory

November 9, 2016 at 8:13 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump ran against himself and won. The Manhattan billionaire who for decades boasted of his playboy lifestyle, stiffed contractors and vendors, hired illegal immigrants, eschewed churchgoing, embraced liberal causes, and counted Hillary and Bill Clinton as friends and allies pulled off one of the most brazen pivots in American history, selling himself to American voters as a populist hero who understood their frustrations and guaranteed a blizzard of wins,” the Washington Post reports.

“Trump did it the way he’d said he would for more than 30 years: He ignored the rules of modern politics and spoke to Americans in plain, even coarse, everyday language, without massaging his words through the data-driven machinery of consultants, focus groups and TV commercials. He scoffed at ideologies, preaching a tough, blunt pragmatism fueled by unbridled, unashamed ego. He told people what they wanted to hear: that a rapidly changing and splintering society could be forced back to a nostalgia-drenched sense of community and purpose, that long-lost jobs could be retrieved, that a pre-globalized economy could be restored.”

Inside the Loss Clinton Saw Coming

November 9, 2016 at 8:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Democrats and many others are now in crisis, wrapping their minds around the reality of a President Donald Trump. But the crisis is sharpest in Clinton campaign headquarters: not only do they feel like everything is about to go deeply, collapse-of-America wrong, but it’s going to happen because she failed, and they failed her.”

“Clinton and her operatives went into the race predicting her biggest problems would be inevitability and her age, trying to succeed a two-term president of her own party. But the mood of the country surprised them. They recognized that Sanders and Trump had correctly defined the problem—addressing anger about a rigged economy and government—and that Clinton already never authentically could. Worse still, her continuing email saga and extended revelations about the Clinton Foundation connections made any anti-establishment strategy completely impossible.”

“So instead of answering the question of how Clinton represented change, they tried to change the question to temperament, what kind of change people wanted, what kind of America they wanted to live in. It wasn’t enough.”

The Future of Obamacare Looks Bleak

November 9, 2016 at 8:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republicans in Congress have been calling for the repeal of Obamacare since it passed in 2010. With control of both houses of Congress and the presidency, they may finally get their chance to undo huge, consequential parts of the health law next year,” the New York Times reports.

“If they succeed, about 22 million fewer Americans would have health insurance, according to an estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.”

“Without a 60-vote supermajority in the Senate, Republicans can’t repeal the entire Affordable Care Act. But they can eliminate several consequential provisions through a special budgetary process called reconciliation.”

Quote of the Day

November 9, 2016 at 7:04 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The forgotten man and woman will never be forgotten again. We will all come together as never before.”

— Donald Trump, in his first tweet as president-elect.

What Kind of President Will Trump Be?

November 9, 2016 at 6:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Dan Balz: “It’s impossible to overstate how uncertain the road ahead is at this point. But how will Trump govern, and how effective will he be? His core issues — trade, immigration, and law and order — offer clues but no clear road map for the future. Even in pursuit of the goals he outlined in those three areas, his proposals lack real specificity. But then, his campaign was not about policy white papers. It was instead a thumb in the eye of the establishment, an American version of the populist uprisings against open borders and globalization that have been seen in other Western societies.”

“Trump always said he smelled an American Brexit in the making — a reference to the unexpected victory in Britain in June by those who wanted to take the country out of the European Union. That vote caught the elites and the establishment totally by surprise. It was an uprising that went unseen until it struck. Trump’s victory was by far even more shocking. It was the kind of “can’t happen here” event that will go down as one of the great upsets in political history.”

“What happened Tuesday was a victory powered by an outpouring of voters, overwhelmingly white and many without college degrees, who felt left behind by the economic recovery, ignored by Washington and disdained by the political, cultural and economic elites. In the end, that was enough to topple Clinton and her dream of becoming the first female president in the nation’s history. The shock waves will be felt for months and maybe years.”

An American Tragedy

November 9, 2016 at 2:49 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Remnick: “The election of Donald Trump to the Presidency is nothing less than a tragedy for the American republic, a tragedy for the Constitution, and a triumph for the forces, at home and abroad, of nativism, authoritarianism, misogyny, and racism. Trump’s shocking victory, his ascension to the Presidency, is a sickening event in the history of the United States and liberal democracy. On January 20, 2017, we will bid farewell to the first African-American President—a man of integrity, dignity, and generous spirit—and witness the inauguration of a con who did little to spurn endorsement by forces of xenophobia and white supremacy. It is impossible to react to this moment with anything less than revulsion and profound anxiety.”

Donald Trump Elected President

November 9, 2016 at 2:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump was elected the 45th president of the United States, according to the Associated Press.

CNN reports Hillary Clinton called Trump to concede the race.

Priebus Under Consideration as Trump’s Chief of Staff

November 9, 2016 at 2:07 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

RNC chairman Reince Priebus “is the inside favorite to serve as chief of staff in likely President-elect Donald Trump’s administration, according to two senior sources familiar with the initial discussions,” Time reports.

What Just Happened?

November 9, 2016 at 1:14 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Here’s what I wrote just after Donald Trump clinched the Republican presidential nomination in May:

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Are We Looking At Another 1980?

November 9, 2016 at 12:23 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Julia Azari: “That’s all I can think about right now. Carter, unlike Clinton, was an incumbent. But, similar to this year, the race looked close. Reagan, although a much more conventional politician than Trump, inspired doubts and fears about his qualifications. Carter had won the White House in a tight election in 1976 — closer than the 2012 election that Obama won — and it wasn’t an Electoral College blowout for Carter. Just like now, there was good reason to believe that the country was divided and the parties were too. Just as Clinton fought to beat Bernie Sanders in the primaries, Carter faced a challenger to the left in Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. The Republican Party, too, was divided, between an establishment candidate —George H.W. Bush — and a newcomer from the entertainment industry.”

“And then on election night, the map went red.”

No More Gridlock

November 9, 2016 at 12:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rick Hasen: “If, as it appears likely, we have a Republican President, Senate, House and Supreme Court, policy and law will shift sharply to the right.  Putting aside what that would look like on the merits, it does give us something we have not had in our system of divided government: a chance for a single party to govern and be held responsible and accountable by the voters. Gone would be arguments about the other party obstructing.”

“It is a very different world than the gridlock we have seen.”

More from Hasen: Trump would get 2-4 appointments to the Supreme Court.

The Story of Election Night

November 8, 2016 at 10:58 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Our intense focus on election forecasting models over the last few months seems entirely misplaced when this can happen in a single night.

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Presidential Election Results

November 8, 2016 at 7:50 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Upshot has a live forecast which changes as the vote is counted.

Got news? Leave it in the comments.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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