A new McClatchy-Marist poll shows Hillary Clinton heads into the first presidential debate with a seven point lead over Donald Trump, 48% to 41%.

However, the poll also shows doubts among voters about about her trustworthiness and stamina are keeping Trump in the race.

Said pollster Lee Miringoff: “You wouldn’t bet for Clinton. But you certainly wouldn’t bet against her at this time.”

A new AP-GfK poll shows Clinton leading by six points, 45% to 39%.

Hillary Clinton’s latest ad shows girls of varying ages looking at their reflections as they hear Donald Trump make comments degrading women.

Amy Walter: “This, of course, is the billion-dollar question. And, it is one that pollsters and campaigns spend all their time and energy trying to get right. We are seeing an unprecedented level of transparency this year by pollsters and other media outlets about how they arrived at their results.  Survey Monkey’sMark Blumenthal explained how they arrived at their ‘likely voter’ model.  The New York Time’s Upshot farmed their raw polling data from a Florida poll to four different pollsters to show how each of them came up with a different margin for Clinton/Trump.”

“Perhaps the best new tool on the market was designed by friend of the Cook Political Report and political scientist Ken Goldstein which goes beyond just “averaging” the various polls to looking at the assumptions the pollsters made to get to the final result.”

“At the end of the day, no one knows exactly what turn-out will be until people actually turn-out. However, we know a couple things: first, only one campaign has a data-driven turn-out program (Clinton) to help identify and get their voters to the polls; and second, Democrats have a demographic advantage, but only if those voters – namely non-white and younger, turn out. The Obama coalition has helped to elect only one Democrat – Barack Obama. In the other two mid-term elections they have stayed home. Trump, meanwhile, needs to hit an unprecedented level of support from white voters and/or hope for a lower turnout among nonwhites.”

Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:

North Carolina: Clinton 41%, Trump 41% (NYT/Siena College)

Virginia: Clinton 51%, Trump 40% (Roanoke)

Colorado: Clinton 44%, Trump 35% (Colorado Mesa)

Wisconsin: Clinton 45%, Trump 38% (Emerson)

Florida: Trump 45%, Clinton 44% (Suffolk)

Colorado: Clinton 44%, Trump 42% (Quinnipiac)

Virginia: Clinton 45%, Trump 39% (Quinnipiac)

Iowa: Trump 44%, Clinton 37% (Quinnipiac)

Georgia: Trump 47%, Clinton 40% (Quinnipiac)

Rick Klein: “Bringing home the Obama coalition would be easier for Hillary Clinton if they didn’t have other places to stay. Clinton’s weaknesses with critical demographics are well-documented, with complicated explanations. But they are being accentuated and exacerbated by the fact that Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are available as choices in the vast majority of states. The new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll finds Clinton leading among black voters over Donald Trump 76-5. That’s a blowout, but President Obama garnered numbers well into the 90s; Clinton isn’t coming close to that, primarily because Johnson and Stein are options. And younger voters of all races are thinking third party: Among those under 35, Johnson stands at 17 percent and Stein at 5 – nearly twice the shares of their overall support.”

For members: The Obama Coalition Isn’t Coming Together — Yet

Stuart Rothenberg: “Democratic strategists say they are ‘watching’ 50 or 60 races around the country, and they argue, quite reasonably, that Trump’s over-sized role in the election has improved their prospects in a handful of suburban districts that otherwise would not be competitive.”

“But Trump is not at this point the down-ballot disaster that some speculated he would be. National polls show him running only a few points behind Hillary Clinton, though he is doing worse in some states and with college-educated whites. Still, he isn’t Barry Goldwater or George McGovern – at least not now. Voters appear to be making a distinction between Trump and GOP down-ballot nominees.”

“Why aren’t I 50 points ahead?”

— Hillary Clinton, quoted by the Washington Post.