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Trump Faces a Wide Web of Business Conflicts

November 13, 2016 at 10:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Bloomberg: “With his stunning election victory on Tuesday night, Trump now confronts more potential conflicts of interest than any other president in U.S. history. How — or even whether — the billionaire navigates this minefield could have sweeping implications at home and abroad.”

“How Trump, the first billionaire to become president, will handle these investments and other conflicts will face intense scrutiny, with little precedence to guide him or the public. No laws exist that will require him to distance himself from the Trump Organization. While he will be required to continue to file asset disclosures, presidents are otherwise mostly exempt from the 1978 Ethics in Government Act — an exception derived from the belief that such rules could keep commanders-in-chief from making tough decisions.”

Trump Seeks to Delay Trump University Trial

November 13, 2016 at 10:02 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Lawyers for President-elect Donald Trump are formally requesting the postponement of a trial scheduled to begin later this month in a federal class-action fraud suit over his Trump University real estate seminar program,” Politico reports.

“Attorneys for Trump said the looming jury trial should not divert him from the ‘critical and all- consuming’ work of preparing for the presidency.”

Kremlin Sees Better Relations with United States

November 13, 2016 at 9:39 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Kremlin said on that President-elect Donald Trump’s foreign policy approach was “phenomenally close” to that of President Vladimir Putin, giving Russia hope that tattered U.S.-Russia relations could gradually be improved, Reuters reports.

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Pundits Failed Worse Than the Polls

November 13, 2016 at 9:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sean Trende: “What occurred wasn’t a failure of the polls. As with Brexit, it was a failure of punditry. Pundits saw Clinton with a 1.9 percent lead in Pennsylvania and assumed she would win. The correct interpretation was that, if Clinton’s actual vote share were just one point lower and Trump’s just one point higher, Trump would be tied or even a bit ahead.”

“Instead, people gravitated toward unreliable approaches such as reading the tea leaves on early voting or putting faith in Big Blue Walls, while ignoring things like the high number of undecided voters. They selected these data points rather than other possible indicators, such as the significant late break in the generic ballot that could have led them in a different direction. To be blunt, people saw what they wanted to see, and then found the data to support that view.”

Quote of the Day

November 13, 2016 at 9:13 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I hate it that people feel this way.”

— Speaker Paul Ryan, in an interview on CNN, when told millions of people are terrified of President-elect Donald Trump.

Trump Picks Will Set the Course for His Presidency

November 13, 2016 at 9:07 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Rarely in the history of the American presidency has the exercise of choosing people to fill jobs had such a far-reaching impact on the nature and priorities of an incoming administration. Unlike most new presidents, Mr. Trump comes into office with no elective-office experience, no coherent political agenda and no bulging binder of policy proposals. And he has left a trail of inflammatory, often contradictory, statements on issues from immigration and race to terrorism and geopolitics.”

“In such a chaotic environment, serving a president who is in many ways a tabula rasa, the appointees to key White House jobs like chief of staff and cabinet posts like secretary of state, defense secretary and Treasury secretary could wield outsize influence.”

Most Say Trump’s Election Was Legitimate

November 13, 2016 at 8:59 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Washington Post-ABC poll finds 74% of all Americans say they accept the election of Donald Trump as legitimate while 18% do not.

A 58% majority of Clinton supporters say they accept Trump’s election, while 33% do not.

Revenge of the Rural Voter

November 13, 2016 at 8:03 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“It was supposed to be the year of the Latino voter. Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, white rural voters had an even bigger moment,” Politico reports.

“Now Democrats are second-guessing the campaign’s decision to largely surrender the rural vote to the GOP. With their eyes turned anxiously to 2018, they’re urging a new strategy to reach out to rural voters to stave off another bloodbath when a slew of farm-state Democrats face tough reelection battles.”

Trump Wasn’t the Media’s Fault

November 12, 2016 at 4:49 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

In the last few days, too many people have blamed the media for helping to elect Donald Trump.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman John Podesta offered this explanation to The Hill:

“The media always covered her as the person who would be president and therefore tried to eviscerate her before the election, but covered Trump who was someone who was entertaining and sort of gave him a pass,” Podesta said. “We need to reflect and analyze that and put our voices forward.”

Trump spent much of the last year complaining about media coverage of his campaign too, saying it was “terribly unfair,” “dishonest” and “crooked.”

If only the media were powerful enough to make a president. In fact, today’s media is surprisingly powerless.

Clinton’s own behavior proved it. While she ran three times more television ads than Trump this year, it’s striking that she ran just half the ads that Barack Obama ran four years ago. Trump ran just a third of the ads Mitt Romney ran.

2012-2016-ad-spots

It’s fair to conclude that both campaigns saw that traditional television ads just weren’t worth the money. They’re not that effective anymore. The fact that Clinton lost despite running three times as many ads as her opponent helps serve that point.

I’m not defending television coverage of the campaign. It was unusually terrible and an embarrassment to journalism. But if the campaigns thought those viewers could be swayed, they would have been running more ads to get their messages in front of them.

The key to Trump’s win was his ability to bypass the traditional media entirely. It’s how he was able to hijack the Republican party and defeat 16 primary candidates for the nomination. It’s one of the reasons I thought it possible he could win the general election.

Clinton had less of an ability to do that. You can call it an “enthusiasm gap” or, to put in in media terms, she just had a smaller audience.

Technology has transformed every institution in our society, including our politics. It’s allowed candidates to largely bypass the political parties and the media because they can now raise money and talk directly to voters.

It’s not a mistake that Barack Obama and Donald Trump were both elected as political outsiders — and both beat Clinton, the ultimate insider. They spoke directly to voters and didn’t the institutions that insiders controlled. They built their own audiences instead of resorting to renting them from television through advertising.

Instead of blaming the media for their loss, the Clinton campaign should blame themselves for thinking the media was still that powerful.

Bonus Quote of the Day

November 12, 2016 at 3:54 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I am heartbroken.”

— Hillary Clinton, quoted by the Washington Post, “with a sad laugh.”

Clinton Blames Comey for Election Loss

November 12, 2016 at 3:48 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

In a phone call with donors, Hillary Clinton “cast blame for her surprise election loss on the announcement by the FBI director, James B. Comey, days before the election that he had revived the inquiry into her use of a private email server,” the New York Times reports.

Clinton said Comey’s letter to Congress had prevented her from ending the campaign with an optimistic closing argument.

Said Clinton: “There are lots of reasons why an election like this is not successful… our analysis is that Comey’s letter raising doubts that were groundless, baseless, proven to be, stopped our momentum.”

Democrats May Lose Ability to Block Constitutional Amendments

November 12, 2016 at 2:03 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Democrats now control just 13 state legislatures. If they lose one more, they will fall below the 25% threshold needed to stop constitutional amendments.

To amend the U.S. Constitution, you must get a proposal from two-thirds of the House and Senate or have two-thirds of the states call for a constitutional convention. Then three-fourths of the states would need to ratify the amendment.

It’s not an easy process but it’s getting closer to the point where Republicans might try it.

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Even Trump’s Inner Circle Not Sure How He’ll Govern

November 12, 2016 at 1:37 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Gabriel Sherman: “If you’re one of the millions of Americans wrestling with the question of how Donald Trump will govern as president, consider this: His inner circle doesn’t know either.”

“Since Tuesday’s stunning election result, I’ve spoken with Trump advisers and GOP officials in Washington about the state of Trump’s transition planning to get a sense of what kind of place the Trump White House will be. What they describe is a candidate who is still something of a mystery, even to them.“

Said one: “It is basically a blank slate that needs to be filled in.”

Why Didn’t Clinton Have a Message?

November 12, 2016 at 12:01 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Elizabeth Drew: “Throughout the campaign, blinders kept most of us from taking aboard a lot of what we were seeing: Hillary Clinton wasn’t giving people a reason to vote for her. ‘Stronger together’ meant what? It’s been reported that for much of the fall Bill Clinton worried that the leaders of his wife’s campaign were too fixated on their supposedly fearsome get-out-the-vote drive and were failing to craft a coherent message for her, and he chewed on the staff about this. Why Hillary Clinton didn’t develop a message is a puzzle. The reconstructions to come of her campaign should tell us why.”

Letting Bankers Off May Have Tipped the Election

November 12, 2016 at 11:57 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Gretchen Mortgeson: “There are many facets to the populist, anti-establishment anger that swept Donald J. Trump into the White House in Tuesday’s election. A crucial element fueling the rage, in my view, was this: Not one high-ranking executive at a major financial firm was held to account for the crisis of 2008.”

“As millions of foreclosures and job losses followed, the failure to go after fraudsters confirmed the suspicion that the powerful got protection while those on Main Street were kicked to the curb. When Mr. Trump asserted that the system was rigged, he tapped directly into such misgivings.”

Voter ID Law Hurt Turnout In Wisconsin

November 12, 2016 at 11:54 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Wisconsin’s voter ID law caused problems at the polls in the city and likely contributed to lower voter turnout, Milwaukee’s elections chief said Thursday,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

“The city saw a decline of some 41,000 voters in Tuesday’s election compared with 2012, when President Barack Obama won broad support in Milwaukee and coasted to re-election.”

Elections Aren’t Necessarily About the Truth

November 12, 2016 at 10:13 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Paul Krugman: “First of all, remember that elections determine who gets the power, not who offers the truth. The Trump campaign was unprecedented in its dishonesty; the fact that the lies didn’t exact a political price, that they even resonated with a large bloc of voters, doesn’t make them any less false. No, our inner cities aren’t war zones with record crime. No, we aren’t the highest-taxed nation in the world. No, climate change isn’t a hoax promoted by the Chinese.”

“So if you’re tempted to concede that the alt-right’s vision of the world might have some truth to it, don’t. Lies are lies, no matter how much power backs them up.”

Best Protest Sign Yet

November 12, 2016 at 10:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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