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Why Republicans Will Have Trouble Replacing Obamacare

November 17, 2016 at 2:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Chait: “Health-care coverage is a relatively straightforward problem of resource allocation. Tens of millions of Americans can’t pay for the health care they need, because they either have low incomes or expensive medical needs. There are many different ways to fill in the gap between what they need and what they can afford on their own. You can do it through straight taxes and spending. Or you can do it through regulation, forcing insurers to charge healthy customers more than they cost so they can charge the unhealthy ones less. Obamacare uses both of these methods. Republicans oppose both of them.”

“The Republican approach involves endless rhetoric about ‘choice,’ ‘competition,’ ‘markets,’ ‘patient-centric’ care, and so on. But none of these concepts has the magic power to conjure resources out of thin air. So when Republicans design alternative plans, and they have sketched out quite a few, inevitably they just provide fewer resources.”

Kaine Will Not Run for President In 2020

November 17, 2016 at 1:11 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) said he will seek re-election in 2018 but will not run for president or vice president in 2020, the AP reports.

Said Kaine: “Period. Full stop.”

The Third Party Fizzle

November 17, 2016 at 1:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Ultimately, what happened to Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Jill Stein of the Green Party is what happens to most third-party candidates: They fade at the end. Johnson flirted with 10% national support for much of the race but ended up with just 3.3% of the national vote, while Stein got 1% despite reaching nearly 5% in the RealClearPolitics average in early summer.”


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Lewandowski Says FBI Letter Was Key to Trump Win

November 17, 2016 at 11:58 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski said FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress in the final days of the election helped Trump win the election, the Telegraph reports.

Said Lewandowski: “With eleven days to go, something amazing happened. The FBI’s director James Comey came out on a Friday and he said they may be reopening the investigation into Crooked Hillary’s emails. What that did was remind people that there are two different rules in Washington – those of the elites, and the privileged and those for everybody else.”

Straight-Ticket Voting Hit a New High

November 17, 2016 at 11:57 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Here’s another indication of the intense political polarization in the United States: Our friends at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball note that the 2016 election saw the largest wave of straight-ticket results for president and the U.S. Senate since the 17th Amendment established the popular election of senators in 1913. All 33 states with Senate elections decided this year backed the same party for president and Senate.

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Bonus Quote of the Day

November 17, 2016 at 11:47 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Why would the Democrats stubbornly not have an economic message? Sixty-seven white papers don’t make an economic message. Thirty-seven bills you’re going to introduce in the first 100 days do not make an economic message. What we as Democrats really have to deal with is the fact that we didn’t have an economic message.”

— Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, quoted by the Washington Post.

A Campaign Is Much More Than a Database

November 17, 2016 at 11:34 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Matt Bai:  “Clinton’s campaign was effectively nothing but a giant turnout operation, crunching data on reliable Democratic voters while simultaneously keeping the candidate herself from saying anything remotely interesting. She ran on a database, rather than on an argument; the more Trump alienated and motivated her base, the less she felt the need to make any discernible case.”

“The bottom line for Democrats ought to be this: You can’t really count on winning elections without persuading anybody of anything they don’t already believe. You can’t be a truly national party if you need 90 percent of a single minority’s votes just to be competitive (any more than you can be a national party relying only on white voters) …Democrats should find a new story in the months ahead. Because demography by itself isn’t actually destiny, and disdain isn’t much of a strategy, either.”

A Return to America’s Normal Racial Politics?

November 17, 2016 at 11:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Philip Klinkner and Rogers Smith: “Donald Trump’s election as president startled many Americans. A number of observers commented that Trump’s campaign represented a set of illiberal values and policy positions far outside of the United States’ political traditions of individual rights, equality and democracy.”

“But in many ways, Trump represents a return to the historical norm. Such classical liberal values have often not predominated in the United States. In fact, they have always logically competed against — while being politically intertwined with — a set of commitments to hierarchies of race, nationality and religion, among others. Indeed for much of American history, these illiberal values held sway.”

Sanders Won’t Join the Democratic Party

November 17, 2016 at 10:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) won’t officially join the Democratic Party even though he was appointed to a leadership position within the Senate Democratic caucus this week, The Hill reports.

Said Sanders: “I was elected as an Independent and I will finish this term as an Independent.”

Quote of the Day

November 17, 2016 at 10:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I will tell you something I haven’t told anybody else. I’ve had some conversation with some other Republican senators and I’m not the only one with some misgivings over both Giuliani and Bolton. And I haven’t met a Democrat that’s for either one of them. But I’ve met several Republicans that aren’t.”

— Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), in an interview on Hardball, on who might be the next Secretary of State.

The Map Got More Competitive

November 17, 2016 at 9:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Because the 2016 contest was far closer than either 2008 and 2012, the number of states decided by five points or less increased from four in 2012 to 11 in 2016… But the nation’s polarization is still obvious, and only six states flipped from Democratic to Republican (Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and probably Michigan) — and none in the opposite direction. At least we can say that the playing field was more broadly competitive, and especially so until the final GOP consolidation behind Trump in late October and early November.”

“For a while in the fall, Arizona, Georgia, Utah, and a few other states appeared to be tightly contested, and even on Election Day Arizona and Georgia ended up being less Republican than Iowa and Ohio. We may be at a time of transition in the Electoral College where the whiter Midwest gets redder and the more diverse Sun Belt gets bluer.”

Fake News Writer Says He’s Responsible for Trump

November 17, 2016 at 8:43 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Washington Post interviews a guy who makes $120K a year writing fake news that gets shared on social media:

Honestly, people are definitely dumber. They just keep passing stuff around. Nobody fact-checks anything anymore — I mean, that’s how Trump got elected. He just said whatever he wanted, and people believed everything, and when the things he said turned out not to be true, people didn’t care because they’d already accepted it. It’s real scary. I’ve never seen anything like it.

My sites were picked up by Trump supporters all the time. I think Trump is in the White House because of me. His followers don’t fact-check anything — they’ll post everything, believe anything. His campaign manager posted my story about a protester getting paid $3,500 as fact. Like, I made that up. I posted a fake ad on Craigslist.

Trump Is the New Normal In American Politics

November 17, 2016 at 8:28 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “A week after Donald Trump’s upset presidential victory, a common refrain from liberals and Trump opponents is that he shouldn’t be normalized. Unfortunately for them, voters already normalized Trump — first the GOP voters who gave him the Republican presidential nomination, and then the general-election voters who gave him his Electoral College win. (In the popular vote, however, Trump now trails Hillary Clinton by 1.3 million votes and counting.) So voters have already normalized Trump as the incoming president.”

“Now where Trump critics have a point is that so many of his actions and behavior haven’t been normal, and they deserve scrutiny. The examples: His talk about jailing his opponent; his refusal to release his taxes; his suggestion (before he won) that the results would be rigged; and his disorderly transition with talk of a ‘Stalinesque purge.’ None of THAT is normal. But Trump as president-elect? That is the new normal.”

The Most Talented Politician of Our Time

November 17, 2016 at 7:46 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The following post for members is by David T.S. Jonas, a former economic and labor policy aide to Sen. Al Franken (D-MN).

Back in 2009, when Democrats held a 60-vote majority in the United States Senate, it was easy to make fun of Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Each morning the Senate was in session, he would dutifully rise to his podium, assert that the American people were against whatever initiative President Obama and the Democrats were pushing, and then sit back down and watch as Majority Leader Harry Reid went to working passing a sweeping Democratic agenda.

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Trump Spent 50% More Time In Battleground States

November 17, 2016 at 7:25 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President-elect Donald Trump heavily out-campaigned his Democratic opponent in the last 100 days of the election, spending roughly 50 percent more time in six key battleground states that pushed him to victory on Nov. 8,” NBC News reports.

“Over the final 100 days of the election, Trump made a total of 133 visits to Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin. Over the same time period, Hillary Clinton visited the first five of those states a total of 87 times. She never traveled to Wisconsin during the 102 days between the convention and the election.”

Hatch Defends the Filibuster

November 17, 2016 at 7:17 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) told the Huffington Post that he doesn’t support ending the filibuster.

Said Hatch: “Are you kidding? I’m one of the biggest advocates for the filibuster. It’s the only way to protect the minority, and we’ve been in the minority a lot more than we’ve been in the majority. It’s just a great, great protection for the minority.”

Democrats May Work with Trump on Key Issues

November 17, 2016 at 7:02 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Congressional Democrats, divided and struggling for a path from the electoral wilderness, are constructing an agenda to align with many proposals of President-elect Donald Trump that put him at odds with his own party,” the New York Times reports.

“On infrastructure spending, child tax credits, paid maternity leave and dismantling trade agreements, Democrats are looking for ways they can work with Mr. Trump and force Republican leaders to choose between their new president and their small-government, free-market principles.”

Wall Street Journal: Trump team makes overtures to key Democrats

Wall Street Celebrates the Trump Era

November 17, 2016 at 6:58 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “A populist candidate who railed against shady financial interests on the campaign trail is now putting together an administration that looks like an investment banker’s dream.”

“Former Goldman Sachs banker Steven Mnuchin has been seen at Trump Tower amid rumors that he’s the leading candidate for Treasury secretary. Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross appears headed to the Commerce Department. Steve Bannon, another Goldman alum, will work steps from the Oval Office. If Mnuchin drops out, as some rumors suggest he may, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon remains a possibility as Treasury secretary, and will serve as an outside adviser if he doesn’t get the job.”

“It’s a restoration of Wall Street power — and a potential flip in the way the industry is regulated — perhaps unparalleled in American history.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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