David Wasserman: “Consider this: Up until today, Trump had won 42 percent of all GOP delegates with just 34 percent of the vote. By my estimate tonight, it appears he’s on track to win about 67 percent of the delegates at stake, even though he’s averaged only a hair over 40 percent of today’s votes. That’s a huge disparity. The reason: Today’s transition from proportional allocation to winner-take-all.”
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Recounts Possible In Missouri
“Razor-thin vote margins in Missouri’s Republican and Democratic presidential primaries Tuesday raised the question of a recount,” the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
“Donald Trump defeated Ted Cruz by less than one-half of 1 percent, or 1,726 votes, according to the Missouri secretary of state’s office.”
“Hillary Clinton’s margin was even closer. Clinton also defeated Bernie Sanders by less than one-half of 1 percent, or 1,531 votes, the office reported.”
Tonight’s Primary Results
Republicans
- Donald Trump wins in Florida, Illinois and North Carolina.
- John Kasich wins in Ohio.
- Marco Rubio suspended his presidential campaign.
- Trump leads in Missouri, but the race hasn’t been called yet.
Democrats
- Hillary Clinton wins in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio.
- Clinton leads in Missouri, but the race hasn’t been called yet.
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Exit Polls Show Republicans Feel Betrayed by Party
“Voters in Tuesday’s contests expressed worries about the economy and a broad sense among Republicans that their party has betrayed them, according to early exit poll results,” CNN reports.
“As voters continued heading to the polls in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, early polling showed bipartisan concern about both the economy and access to jobs. Republicans continued the trend of saying they felt betrayed by their party, but only about a third or more Republican voters in the five states said they were angry with the federal government.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“When I first started watching the Republican debates, I said that, you know, if they’re going to do my show, they should start paying me.”
— Jerry Springer, quoted by Politico.
Conservatives Meet to Plot Third-Party Run
Politico: “Three influential leaders in the conservative movement have summoned other top conservatives for a closed-door meeting this Thursday in Washington D.C. to talk about how to stop Donald Trump and, should he become the Republican nominee, how to run a third-party ‘true conservative’ challenger in the fall.
“The organizers of the meeting include Bill Wichterman, who was President George W. Bush’s liaison to the conservative movement, Bob Fischer, a South Dakota businessman and longtime conservative convener, and Erick Erickson, the outspoken Trump opponent and conservative activist who founded RedState.com. … The meeting is scheduled for Thursday, two days after winner-take-all Florida and Ohio vote in what many Republican operatives believe will determine whether Trump is on an unstoppable march to the nomination or is likely to stall out short of the 1,237 delegates he needs.”
Rubio Says He’ll Stay In Race Regardless
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) vowed to stay in the presidential race even if he loses Florida tonight, Politico reports.
Said Rubio: “Tomorrow, our plan is to be in Utah campaigning irrespective of tonight. It would be a lot better to go to Utah being the winner of the Florida primary. It would give us a tremendous amount of momentum. It would give us 99 delegates, and that’s the way we want to do it tonight.”
He added: “I can’t guarantee a win today. I’m telling you I expect to win tonight, but we are not 20 points behind. I mean, that’s absurd.”
Trump Has a Massive Lead in Free Media
New York Times: “Mr. Trump earned $400 million worth of free media last month, about what John McCain spent on his entire 2008 presidential campaign… Over the course of the campaign, he has earned close to $2 billion worth of media attention, about twice the all-in price of the most expensive presidential campaigns in history. It is also twice the estimated $746 million that Hillary Clinton, the next best at earning media, took in. Senator Bernie Sanders has earned more media than any of the Republicans except Mr. Trump.”
Priebus Says Every GOP Candidate Will Back Nominee
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said he expects every GOP presidential candidates to maintain his pledge to support the eventual nominee, Politico reports.
Said Priebus: “I think that all of these candidates are true to their word, that they will support the eventual nominee of our party. And we’ve always been able to come together. I think we will obviously have to come together, and there’ll be time for that process to take place.”
The GOP Establishment Never Had a Chance
David Wasserman: “Trump and Cruz, who strike fear into the hearts of many GOP elders, have combined to win more than 60 percent of the vote in 16 of 24 contests and more than 50 percent in all but two states, New Hampshire and Vermont. Even in blue and well-educated Massachusetts, Trump and Cruz combined for 59 percent. Meanwhile, Kasich and Rubio have combined for a majority at just one mainland event: the District of Columbia GOP convention, fittingly held at the upscale Loews Madison Hotel on Saturday.”
“This is what it looks like when the GOP’s elites are totally estranged from its primary voters, and it’s a far cry from just four years ago. By the time Romney effectively clinched the nomination at the end of April 2012, he had captured 42 percent of all primary votes, not a majority but still solid enough to beat Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, who split a combined 54 percent.”
“In hindsight, that should have been an ominous sign for mainstream candidates like Rubio, Kasich and Bush.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“There’s no way I would team up with Donald Trump. No way. Forget it.”
— Gov. John Kasich, quoted by the Washington Times, on possibly being Donald Trump’s running mate.
Another Shocking Fact About Donald Trump
The New York Times profiles Donald Trump’s butler and makes this observation:
He understands Mr. Trump’s sleeping patterns and how he likes his steak (“It would rock on the plate, it was so well done”), and how Mr. Trump insists — despite the hair salon on the premises — on doing his own hair.
High Stakes Tuesday
Rick Klein: “Of all the complicated delegate-math scenarios to ponder, Tuesday’s voting is frustratingly simple for two of the four candidates: win a home game, or go home. John Kasich and Marco Rubio have long since been forced to abandon any realistic shot of getting a majority of convention delegates. Kasich, of course, is still looking for his first victory, anywhere, and Rubio has consistently failed to meet delegate thresholds in big states.”
“It’s a measure of how quickly and completely Donald Trump has taken over as the dominant force in the Republican Party that he can have a middling night when two of his rivals have their home states voting and still be the overwhelming favorite to finish with the most delegates. But wins by Kasich in Ohio and/or Rubio in Florida could bring about one last stand for the so-called establishment wing of the party, perhaps coalesced behind one of those two men. At this point, the only hope for stopping Trump is delaying his path to clinching. It may be that no day of voting from here holds as much promise on that front as this one.”
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The Tale of Two Insurgencies
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The Last of the Establishment Candidates
First Read: “When this presidential contest started a year ago, and when most of us thought Trump was unlikely to run, we identified three establishment frontrunners: Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio. Well, Walker ended his presidential bid two months after formally announcing. Bush, after spending some $82 million over the airwaves throughout the course of the contest, dropped out after finishing fourth in South Carolina. And unless the polling is really off in Florida, Rubio soon could end up exiting the GOP race, though he has been putting on a brave face.”
Caveat: “If Rubio suspends his campaign, many of his delegates would become free agents. So to keep them — and ensure they don’t go to Trump — he could stay in the race.”
Comparing Trump to Nixon
Historian Douglas Brinkley told Yahoo News that Donald Trump is a lot like Richard Nixon.
Said Brinkley: “We keep thinking Reagan is the big conservative figure of our era, but Nixon was dominant in the Republican party. I see Trump learning all the tricks from Nixon — enemy lists, keeping track of who slights you, an immediate nuke-’em attitude.”
Quote of the Day
“I’m not sure what they’re smoking over there in the Clinton camp. Everybody said Donald Trump wouldn’t come, they said he couldn’t get past August or the early controversies… well, he’s outlasted all of us and I think they’re gonna underestimate Donald Trump’s candidacy at their own peril.”
— Mike Huckabee, quoted by Politico, after assertions by the Clinton campaign that Trump couldn’t win a general election.
The Path to a Contested Convention
The Wall Street Journal has an outstanding delegate simulator to gauge how today’s races will impact the GOP presidential race.
