The Economist Intelligence Unit concludes that a Donald Trump presidency poses a top-10 risk event that could disrupt the world economy, lead to political chaos in the United States and heighten security risks for the United States.
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RNC Official Says Party Decides Nominee, Not Voters
A member of the Republican National Committee’s Rules Committee said that the party will decide who the GOP nominee will be, not the voters, The Hill reports.
Said Curly Haugland: “The media has created the perception that the voters will decide the nomination… The political parties choose their nominees, not the general public, contrary to popular belief.”
“Haugland, one of the party’s few unbound delegates that can decide who they want to vote for, argued that the party can block Trump even if he wins 1,237 delegates through the primaries.”
Upcoming Primary Calendar Favors Trump
Amy Walter: “The south and Midwest have all pretty much weighed in at this point. Cruz didn’t do as well in the south as he should have. Kasich didn’t do as well in the Midwest as he should have. Now, it’s now time for the west and northeast to have their say. On the one hand, the blue states up in mid-April (New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania) should favor the more establishment candidacy of Kasich. In 2012, Romney easily defeated Rick Santorum in these states. However, Trump has a regional appeal that makes him uniquely positioned for these states.”
“Trump’s immigration stance will help him in Arizona on March 22, a winner take all state with 58 delegates. And, we should expect him to do well in blue-collar areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Washington state.”
“Moreover, the map isn’t all that favorable to Cruz. Not only are the northeastern states a cultural mismatch for Cruz, there are also few remaining caucuses left on the calendar. Caucuses, with their more socially conservative constituency and emphasis on grassroots organizing, have been great for the Cruz campaign. Of the 21 states that vote between now and June 7, however, only four hold caucuses.”
Shadow Campaign to Pick Delegates Begins
New York Times: “With more than half the states having now held their nominating contests, Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz are quietly directing their attention to a second, shadow election campaign — one that is out of sight, little understood, but absolutely critical if Republicans arrive at their national convention with Mr. Trump short of a majority of delegates.”
“This parallel campaign is to select the individual delegates who will go to Cleveland in July for what could be the first contested convention in American politics in more than 60 years. Chosen through a byzantine process in each state, most of the delegates will become free agents if no one wins a majority on the first ballot.”
Adelson Might Support Trump
Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson said he might support Donald Trump for president, Politico reports.
Said Adleson: “Trump is a businessman. I am a businessman. He employs a lot of people. I employed 50,000 people. Why not?”
Kasich Will Appear on Pennsylvania Ballot
Gov. John Kasich will appear on the Pennsylvania ballot on April 26 after a petition from Marco Rubio’s campaign challenging the required number of signatures was dropped, Politico reports.
Senate Will Not Consider Supreme Court Nomination
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the Senate will not consider President Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court, CNBC reports.
McConnell said that Obama did it “not with the intent of seeing the nominee confirmed, but in order to politicize it for the purpose of the election.”
He added the Senate will “revisit” the matter when the next president nominates someone, noting that the people should have a say in who fills the currently vacant seat.
Trump Predicts Riots If He’s Denied Nomination
Donald Trump warned of “riots” around the Republican National Convention should he fall slightly short of the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination and the party moves to select another candidate, the New York Times reports.
Said Trump: “I think we’ll win before getting to the convention, but I can tell you, if we didn’t and if we’re 20 votes short or if we’re 100 short and we’re at 1,100 and somebody else is at 500 or 400, because we’re way ahead of everybody, I don’t think you can say that we don’t get it automatically. I think it would be — I think you’d have riots. I think you’d have riots. I’m representing a tremendous, many, many millions of people.”
For members: The GOP Primary Is Quickly Becoming the Hunger Games
Trump Still On Track to Win Majority of Delegates
A New York Times analysis finds that if Donald Trump “maintains his current level of support in the remaining races, he would almost certainly secure the nomination.”
“After Tuesday’s contests, no other candidate retains a real chance of capturing the delegates required to win the nomination outright. Mr. Rubio dropped out, Gov. John Kasich is too far behind, and Sen. Ted Cruz would need to win the vast majority of the remaining delegates — a near impossibility.”
Trump Will Skip Next Debate
Donald Trump said that he will not be attending Fox News’ debate next week, citing prior commitments to speak “in front of an important group of people,” CBS News reports.
Said Trump: “I think we have had enough debates. We have had 11 or 12 debates. I did really well on the last one. I think I have done well in all the debates…But I think we’ve had enough. How many times can the same people ask you the same question?”
Obama Calls Hatch’s Bluff
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) told Newsmax last week that President Obama “could easily name Merrick Garland, who is a fine man” to the Supreme Court.
But he quickly added, “He probably won’t do that because this appointment is about the election. So I’m pretty sure he’ll name someone the liberal Democratic base wants.”
Hatch was wrong.
Obama Picks Merrick Garland for Supreme Court
Settling for a centrist candidate with decades of judicial experience, President Obama nominated Merrick Garland, a federal appeals judge in Washington, D.C., to the Supreme Court seat left vacant by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia,the Huffington Post reports.
“An eventual appointment for Garland is also less likely to mark a liberal shift in the Supreme Court. If anything, his contributions — given his age and his moderate record so far — are likely to be more pragmatic than path-marking for some of the country’s most hotly contested legal issues, such as voting rights, gun control and the scope of presidential powers.”
Think Progress: Who is Merrick Garland?
Quote of the Day
“America’s in the middle of a real political storm — a real tsunami — and we should have seen this coming.”
— Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), quoted by the Washington Post, in announcing he waas suspending his campaign.
GOP Establishment Has No Messenger
First Read: “Outside of the vote totals and delegate math, maybe the biggest political headline from last night was how the Republican establishment got knocked down. Not only did its last hope — Marco Rubio — drop out of the GOP race, but the #NeverTrump effort lost badly. In Florida alone, anti-Trump groups and Rubio’s Super PAC spent nearly $16 million over the airwaves to stop Trump, versus $2.2 million that Trump spent. And guess what: Trump beat Rubio in his home state, 46%-27%.”
“There is still a considerable anti-Trump attitude among GOP voters: In Ohio, 44% of GOP primary voters said that if Trump and Hillary are the general-election candidates in November, they would consider voting for a third-party candidate. So Trump has some work to do uniting his party. But first, anti-Trump Republicans need to find a messenger.”
Trump Quote of the Day
“I’m speaking with myself. I have a very good brain.”
— Donald Trump, when asked on Morning Joe who he is consulting with on foreign policy.
The Party No Longer Decides
We’re kicking off the second season of Political Wire’s podcast with a discussion of how Donald Trump broke the Republican party.
Special thanks to the Cook Political Report for sponsoring this show!
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Obama Will Announce Supreme Court Pick
President Obama will announce his choice to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia at 11 a.m. ET, the New York Times reports.
Said Obama: “In putting forward a nominee today, I am fulfilling my constitutional duty. I’m doing my job. I hope that our senators will do their jobs, and move quickly to consider my nominee.”
Plouffe Warns That Trump Could Win
David Plouffe warned that Democrats should not underestimate Donald Trump, arguing that he would be more dangerous than Sen. Ted Cruz, Politico reports.
Said Plouffe: “We’ve never seen anything like this in politics. Democrats should not be popping champagne corks since Donald Trump is doing so well.”
For members: Why Democrats should not underestimate Trump
