Upcoming Primary Calendar Favors Trump

Amy Walter: “The south and Midwest have all pretty much weighed in at this point. Cruz didn’t do as well in the south as he should have. Kasich didn’t do as well in the Midwest as he should have. Now, it’s now time for the west and northeast to have their say. On the one hand, the blue states up in mid-April (New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania) should favor the more establishment candidacy of Kasich. In 2012, Romney easily defeated Rick Santorum in these states. However, Trump has a regional appeal that makes him uniquely positioned for these states.”

“Trump’s immigration stance will help him in Arizona on March 22, a winner take all state with 58 delegates. And, we should expect him to do well in blue-collar areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Washington state.”

“Moreover, the map isn’t all that favorable to Cruz. Not only are the northeastern states a cultural mismatch for Cruz, there are also few remaining caucuses left on the calendar. Caucuses, with their more socially conservative constituency and emphasis on grassroots organizing, have been great for the Cruz campaign. Of the 21 states that vote between now and June 7, however, only four hold caucuses.”