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Trump Victory Would Destroy the Republican Party

January 8, 2016 at 7:49 am EST By Taegan Goddard 60 Comments

Michael Gerson: “Cruz’s nomination would represent the victory of the hard right — religious right and tea party factions — within the Republican coalition. After he loses, the ideological struggles within the GOP would go on.”

“No, the worst outcome for the party would be the nomination of Donald Trump. It is impossible to predict where the political contest between Trump and Hillary Clinton would end up. Clinton has manifestly poor political skills, and Trump possesses a serious talent for the low blow. But Trump’s nomination would not be the temporary victory of one of the GOP’s ideological factions. It would involve the replacement of the humane ideal at the center of the party and its history. If Trump were the nominee, the GOP would cease to be.”

Peggy Noonan: “I do not understand the inability or refusal of Republican leaders to take Mr. Trump seriously. They take his numbers seriously—they can read a poll—but they think, as Mr. Bush said, that his support is all about anger, angst and theatrics. That’s part of the story, but the other, more consequential part has to do with real policy issues. “

Priebus Says Either Trump or Cruz Can Win

January 8, 2016 at 7:28 am EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said he was confident he could pull his party together even if Sen. Ted Cruz or Donald Trump win the nomination, Politico reports.

Said Priebus: “One hundred percent. You know the unifying thing about what I have to do is no matter who you’re for everyone can agree that we have to have a national party and infrastructure that has its act together … everyone is gonna get behind whoever the winner is.”

Quote of the Day

January 8, 2016 at 7:24 am EST By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

“All I would say is, ‘Don’t smoke marijuana when you’re using your gun.'”

— California Gov. Jerry Brown (D), quoted by the San Jose Mercury News, refusing to comment on two potential ballot propositions.


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Christie Says Clinton Would Cut Out Rubio’s Heart

January 8, 2016 at 7:07 am EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

New York Times: “Mr. Rubio is deft at delivering speeches. But nobody in the Republican presidential field, with the exception of Donald J. Trump, is as skilled as Mr. Christie at belittling his rivals.”

“And when Mr. Christie slashed back, he aimed for Mr. Rubio’s biggest vulnerability — his relative youth and inexperience — telling the conservative radio host Laura Ingraham that Hillary Clinton would pat Mr. Rubio ‘on the head and then cut his heart out’ if they squared off in a general election.”

Trump and Cruz Headed for Epic Battle

January 8, 2016 at 7:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz “are circling each other in the race for the Republican nomination and appear to be on the brink of an epic clash,” The Hill reports.

“While the candidates have for months observed a kind of truce, party insiders believe that’s about to change — and many are speculating about just how explosive things will get.”

Trump Quote of the Day

January 8, 2016 at 6:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

“My first day, it gets signed, okay? My first day. There’s no more gun-free zones.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by the Washington Post.

New Documents Show Blunt Bill Clinton

January 8, 2016 at 6:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

New York Times: “Fifteen years almost to the day since former President Bill Clinton left office, a newly released batch of documents from his library offers a fresh look at his later years in the White House even as his wife, Hillary Clinton, seeks to win the post for herself. The documents transcribed phone calls and meetings between Mr. Clinton and Tony Blair, then the British prime minister and perhaps Mr. Clinton’s best friend among foreign leaders.”

“With bracing bluntness and a smattering of R-rated language, the private conversations reveal a president sometimes unseen by the general public, one who veered from wonky discussions of the Northern Ireland peace process to serrated assessments of his American political opposition. Like a time capsule, the transcripts capture the priorities and perceptions of the moment that, judged with the harsh certainty of hindsight, look prescient or wildly off base.”

LePage Says Drug Dealers are Impregnating ‘White Girls’

January 7, 2016 at 8:27 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 75 Comments

Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) made a racially charged comment during one of his regular town hall meetings about how he was tackling substance abuse in Maine, the Portland Press Herald reports.

Said LePage: “These are guys with the name D-Money, Smoothie, Shifty… these types of guys… they come from Connecticut and New York, they come up here, they sell their heroin, they go back home. Incidentally, half the time they impregnate a young, white girl before they leave, which is a real sad thing because then we have another issue we have to deal with down the road.”

Missing U.S. Missile Found in Cuba

January 7, 2016 at 8:26 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 13 Comments

“An inert U.S. Hellfire missile sent to Europe for training purposes was wrongly shipped from there to Cuba in 2014, said people familiar with the matter, a loss of sensitive military technology that ranks among the worst-known incidents of its kind,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The unintended delivery of the missile to Cuba has confounded investigators and experts who work in a regulatory system designed to prevent precisely such equipment from falling into the wrong hands, said those familiar with the matter.”

Trump Comments on Rubio’s ‘Big Heels’

January 7, 2016 at 8:17 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 13 Comments

Donald Trump joined the media buzz over Marco Rubio’s high-heeled boots, saying “you won’t see me wearing them,” BuzzFeed reports.

Said Trump: “I don’t know what to think of those boots. It helps to be tall. I don’t know, they’re big heels. They’re big heels. I mean, those heels were really up there. But you know, it’s almost like it doesn’t matter too much. Probably, he would have been better off not going that route.”

He added: “I noticed he’s taken a lot of hits. I just hope it works out fine for him.”

Likely Voter Models Are Failing

January 7, 2016 at 8:14 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

Pew Research: “In recent years, polling has missed the mark in several high-profile elections, drawing particular attention to the difficulties inherent in using surveys to predict election outcomes. These failures typically result from one or more of three causes: biased samples that include an incorrect proportion of each candidate’s supporters; change in voter preferences between the time of the poll and the election; or incorrect forecasts about who will vote. While not a new concern, the third of these – the difficulty of identifying likely voters – may be the most serious, and that is the focus of this study. Election polls face a unique problem in survey research: They are asked to produce a model of a population that does not yet exist at the time the poll is conducted, the future electorate.”

Another Quote of the Day

January 7, 2016 at 8:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 21 Comments

“I’d like to say that Donald Trump is the most outrageous and unqualified person ever to run for president. But really, that’s not fair to Ted Cruz.”

— Martin O’Malley, quoted by NBC News.

Trump Unloads on Clinton for Sex Scandals Again

January 7, 2016 at 8:06 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

“Donald Trump again assailed Bill and Hillary Clinton Thursday for the former president’s sexual indiscretions,” NBC News reports.

“An Instagram video posted by Trump’s campaign features images of intern Monica Lewinsky, disgraced former congressman Anthony Weiner – a onetime political ally of the Clintons who resigned from Congress amid a sexting scandal – and criminally charged comedian Bill Cosby.”

Politico: Bill’s back, and so’s his baggage.

Many Non-GOP Supporters Can Still Vote for Trump

January 7, 2016 at 7:57 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

Amy Walter says “no one really knows for sure if the Trump campaign organization is actually actively registering or targeting these supportive potential voters. In other words, there’s plenty of evidence that those who are most likely to support Trump are either unable or unwilling to get to a polling booth or caucus site.”

“However, as seen in this chart, in many of the early states a voter doesn’t need to be registered as a Republican to vote in that state’s primary or participate in the caucus. In the case of Iowa, one can register with the party at the time of the vote.”

Rubio Goes After Christie Hard

January 7, 2016 at 7:53 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

Sen. Marco Rubio has opened up new lines of attack against Gov. Chris Christie: bashing him directly on guns and Planned Parenthood, Politico reports.

Said Rubio: “Chris Christie has supported gun control. Chris Christie supported an assault weapons ban. That’s the reason that he got into politics to begin with. Chris Christie personally contributed to Planned Parenthood. Chris Christie has done a number of things that are very similar to the Obama agenda, and I just don’t think this country can afford to elect a president that will not stand up and undo the damage that a Barack Obama has done to this country.”

Cruz Says McCain Is Secretly Backing Rubio

January 7, 2016 at 4:10 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 37 Comments

Sen. Ted Cruz told Bloomberg that Sen. John McCain’s questioning his eligibility for the presidency is his way of secretly trying to boost Marco Rubio’s chances at the Republican nomination.

Said Cruz: “I think it is no surprise to anybody that John McCain is going to be supporting Marco Rubio in this election. It’s no surprise at all that he’s trying to do what he can to help the candidate that he’s favoring who he thinks shares policy positions with him.”

Lawmakers Would Have to Disclose Sex with Lobbyists

January 7, 2016 at 3:33 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

“Lobbyists who have sex with a Missouri lawmaker or their staff would have to disclose it to the Missouri Ethics Commission,” the Kansas City Star reports.

A new bill introduced in the Missouri House “defines sex between lobbyists and legislators as a gift. As such, sexual relations would have to be included on monthly lobbyist gift disclosure forms.”

Can Democrats Reassemble the Obama Coalition?

January 7, 2016 at 1:20 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The electoral coalition that came together to put Barack Obama in the White House — mil­len­ni­als, people of col­or, col­lege-edu­cated whites and single wo­men — is once again the key to the Democratic chances of retaining the presidency. As Ron Brownstein notes, these groups “are grow­ing in the elect­or­ate, and if Demo­crats can turn them out and main­tain their re­cent ad­vant­ages among them, Re­pub­lic­ans could win the pres­id­ency only by amass­ing daunt­ingly high mar­gins among all oth­er whites.”

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Word of the Day

Unanimous Consent: Unanimous consent is a legislative procedure whereby a legislator requests approval by all legislators to approve rule changes and bills.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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