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Top Emanuel Aides Knew of Shooting Video

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Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel “has said he didn’t understand the gravity of Laquan McDonald’s shooting death at the hands of a Chicago police officer until just before the city settled with the teen’s family last spring, and that he wasn’t aware other officers may have falsified reports about the shooting until just after the video was released to the public,” the Chicago Tribune reports.

“But interviews, official city calendars and emails show in both cases the mayor’s closest aides and City Hall attorneys knew much earlier than that.”

Who Is Better for Republicans: Trump or Cruz?

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This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The New York Times drops in at a fundraiser for Sen. Ted Cruz held by longtime GOP operative Mary Matalin which raises the question of whether Cruz is becoming a more acceptable candidate to the GOP establishment.

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Trump Falls Short of Weekly Ad Goal

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Although Donald Trump pledged to spend $2 million a week on ads this month — “and perhaps substantially more than that” — NBC News reports that Trump’s buys for the coming week are only around $332,000 in the state of Iowa and $360,000 in New Hampshire.

Trump Says He’s Bigger Than Reagan

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Donald Trump told Bloomberg that he’s building a movement bigger than that of former President Ronald Reagan.

Said Trump: “I think that the closest thing I can think of is Reagan, but I don’t think it’s the intensity that we have. Now, Reagan had a little bit of this, but I don’t think to the same extent—but he also won.”

He added: “It’s not just like, ‘Gee. It’s a little political rally and people are showing up to have fun.’ These people are committed.”

GOP Rivals Agree That Rubio Is Weak

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Washington Post: “Chris Christie depicts Marco Rubio as a truant schoolboy. Jeb Bush’s top ally portrays him as a weather vane. Ted Cruz and his supporters characterize him as a nervous sellout who bowed to Democratic demands for “amnesty.” In commercials, interviews and face-to-face meetings with voters, Rubio’s 2016 rivals and their backers are waging increasingly personal attacks, using different words to say much the same thing: that the freshman senator from Florida is weak and unreliable.”

GOP Strategist Now Thinks Trump Can Win

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Longtime Republcian strategist Scott Reed tells the New York Times he has an increasing appreciation for Donald Trump’s political ability. He says Trump “is the most on-message candidate of this cycle, by a factor of 10” and says his skills at political jujitsu “are remarkable.”

Reed “considers Mr. Trump’s resilience in recent weeks a positive sign. Under increasing pressure from Mr. Cruz, Mr. Trump seized the headlines again by simultaneously questioning the Canada-born senator’s eligibility for the presidency and hitting Hillary Clinton over her husband’s personal scandals.”

“For the first time, he now believes Mr. Trump can win the Republican nomination.”

Clinton’s Lead Shrinks In Iowa

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A new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by just two points, 42% to 40%.

Key finding: “The tightening race is not because of a surge in support for Sanders, the poll indicates. His support has risen just 1 percentage point in the past month. But Clinton has seen her support slide from 48 percent to 42 percent. The big shift has been in the number of likely Democratic caucusgoers who say they are undecided or who plan to stand up for ‘uncommitted.’ Fourteen percent now say that, up from 8 percent a month ago.”

GOP Nomination Rules Favor Trump

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Sam Wang: “Pundits have assured us that the support for Donald Trump is so limited that he can’t possibly get the GOP presidential nomination. Last week in The New York Times, Ross Douthat argued that Trump has a ceiling around 30 percent of Republican voters and consequently will be defeated. To put this numerical claim to the test, I have created a detailed state-by-state simulation of the nomination rules. My conclusion may surprise you: Trump’s current level of support may be enough to deliver him the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in July.”

How Cruz Changed His Debate Strategy

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Sen. Ted Cruz described to Politico how he “overhauled his debate strategy after the early faceoffs to insert himself far more aggressively and strategically in the most recent Republican debates.”

Said Cruz: “We made a conscious decision to assert myself more aggressively into the conversation, because if every question was going to begin with Candidate A will you please insult Candidate B, I didn’t want to be involved in that. But I also didn’t want to stand there silently for two hours, while others were throwing rocks at each other.”

‘Bridgegate’ Co-Conspirators Remain a Secret

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“U.S. prosecutors secretly identified accomplices in the George Washington Bridge scandal to a judge and asked that the names remain permanently confidential,” Bloomberg reports.

“The names of the co-conspirators in the politically motivated lane closings at the bridge in September 2013 have been a mystery since May 1, when prosecutors announced the indictment of two former Christie allies and a third pleaded guilty.”

Clinton Courts Elizabeth Warren

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Hillary Clinton tells the Boston Globe that she keeps in occasional touch with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).

“The most recent phone chat centered on a topic Warren holds dear: pressuring Wall Street bankers. Warren thanked Clinton for writing an op-ed arguing that Democrats needed to fight off Republican efforts to water down regulations on the financial services industry, Clinton recalled. And Clinton wished Warren a Happy 2016 — a subtle reminder that it’s an election year, and Warren’s endorsement would be a boon to Clinton’s 2016 presidential candidacy.”

Don’t Look for a Landslide This Fall

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Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “It’s too early to start handicapping November with any great degree of confidence, but we’ll say this much: As polarized as our country was prior to this campaign, it has become even more polarized during it, and promises to be fully polarized by the fall. Practically, that means any GOP or Democratic nominee probably has a solid base of 45% or so. Barry Goldwater and George McGovern’s 38% mark is exceedingly unlikely for any major-party candidate today — barring the introduction of significant independents or third-party nominees.”

Clinton Attacks Lead to Sanders Windfall

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“Hillary Clinton’s new barrage against Bernie Sanders, the Democratic presidential primary opponent she has all but ignored through most of her campaign, is having an effect — though probably not the one she intended,” the Washington Post reports.

“Sanders’s underdog campaign said it is seeing a surge of contributions as a direct result of the new attention it is getting from the Democratic front-runner, with money coming in at a clip nearly four times the average daily rate reported in the last quarter of 2015.”

Politico: Hillary Clinton’s Iowa Deja Vu

Republicans Whisper About Contested Convention

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“With the Iowa caucuses less than three weeks away, top Republicans are expressing growing anxiety about the state of the party’s raucous presidential primary — and what it could mean for its prospects of winning back the White House in 2016,” Politico reports.

“As they gathered here for the Republican National Committee’s annual winter meeting, party officials voiced concern about everything from the possibility of a contested convention to whether changes they instituted to the debate schedule and primary calendar were having unintended consequences.”

Cruz Did Not Disclose Loan from Goldman Sachs

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New York Times: “As Ted Cruz tells it, the story of how he financed his upstart campaign for the United States Senate four years ago is an endearing example of loyalty and shared sacrifice between a married couple… But the couple’s decision to pump more than $1 million into Mr. Cruz’s successful Tea Party-darling Senate bid in Texas was made easier by a large loan from Goldman Sachs, where Mrs. Cruz works. That loan was not disclosed in campaign finance reports.”

“Other campaigns have been investigated and fined for failing to make such disclosures, which are intended to inform voters and prevent candidates from receiving special treatment from lenders. There is no evidence that the Cruzes got a break on their loans.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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