Don’t Look for a Landslide This Fall

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “It’s too early to start handicapping November with any great degree of confidence, but we’ll say this much: As polarized as our country was prior to this campaign, it has become even more polarized during it, and promises to be fully polarized by the fall. Practically, that means any GOP or Democratic nominee probably has a solid base of 45% or so. Barry Goldwater and George McGovern’s 38% mark is exceedingly unlikely for any major-party candidate today — barring the introduction of significant independents or third-party nominees.”